Swing States in 2008

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

she wasn't talking about the EV numbers, but whether that state would be considered safe for the Republicans in 1988 or not.

If all that matters is the margin won by, then Louisiana would've been considered safe for Gore in 2000.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look at this way, if you totally ignore the national average, then you have Vermont going from voting Democrat only once in a landslide year to going by Clinton by over 15 points almost overnight.

But comparing Vermont's numbers through the 70s and 80s to the national average shows a definite trend.

It doesn't always work though (ex. Georgia from 1960-1980)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nader went from 6.92% in 2000 to 1.44% in 2004 in Vermont. Where did that 5.48% go? The most logical answer is they voted for Kerry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shira is basically talking about votes shifting between the two main parties though.