Swing States in 2008
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:42:29 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Swing States in 2008
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Swing States in 2008  (Read 8340 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,695
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 20, 2004, 06:42:00 PM »

Shira is basically talking about votes shifting between the two main parties though.
Logged
ATFFL
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,754
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 20, 2004, 06:48:08 PM »

Shira is basically talking about votes shifting between the two main parties though.

Why?  We are in a two party dominated system, but we also have third party spoilers. 

She was talking about one party gaining 6% in one state while losing 6% in another.  No mention of taking it all from the other major party. 
Logged
Shira
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,858


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2004, 05:43:09 AM »

Shira is basically talking about votes shifting between the two main parties though.

Why?  We are in a two party dominated system, but we also have third party spoilers. 

She was talking about one party gaining 6% in one state while losing 6% in another.  No mention of taking it all from the other major party. 

When you do comparison analysis, you have to eliminate aberrations like Perot, Nader and Buchanan (to a lesser extend). You have to decide what would had been the results without these ‘aberrations’. In the case of Nader and Buchanan it is very simple.
Logged
ATFFL
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,754
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2004, 10:02:01 AM »

Shira is basically talking about votes shifting between the two main parties though.

Why?  We are in a two party dominated system, but we also have third party spoilers. 

She was talking about one party gaining 6% in one state while losing 6% in another.  No mention of taking it all from the other major party. 

When you do comparison analysis, you have to eliminate aberrations like Perot, Nader and Buchanan (to a lesser extend). You have to decide what would had been the results without these ‘aberrations’. In the case of Nader and Buchanan it is very simple.

They are not abberations, they are candidates.  Their level of success indicates a change in the mood and preferences of he electorate, not statistical noise.

If the US army wants to compare casualties from war to war should they decide there are only 2 categories, killed and alive?  Since all the people who were wounded are not dead we can call them alive and pretend our casualty rate is much, much lower.  Sure the data will be useless for what we were supposed to be comparing, but it makes us look good.

When I grade a multiple choice test I should only accept two of the four possible answers.   I'll assume the other two incorrect ones are abberations and give the kids credit for the right answer.  They may love me for it, but their education won't benefit from it.

I bet scientists would love it if they could decalre the search for the Grand Unification Theory over and done with and ignore all the remaining ununified forces by calling them abberations.

Life would be great if we could just ignore all those little abberations tht come up and pretend they don't exist.  Sadly, we can't.  To ignore the third party candidates and say they are nothing more than stasticial abberations is to discount the people who voted for them whether out of protest or out of genuine belief in their views.  Every vote for Ralph Nader was a vote that did not go to John Kerry, Al Gore, George W. Bush, Michael Badnarik or any other candidate who appeared on a ballot anywhere in this nation this year or four years ago.
Logged
YoMartin
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 299
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2004, 09:10:56 PM »

As I said in other thread, the problem with this kind of approach is ecological fallacy. You can´t infer what would happen with the individual (state) numbers based on the group (national) numbers. However, with an important MoE, realizing the ceteris paribus involved, and just for fun and not in a scientific way, the method could be useful.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 22, 2004, 12:48:08 AM »

How did your math hold up in Florida and West Virginia this year Shira?
Logged
Bob Dole '96
mpirner
Rookie
**
Posts: 89


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 23, 2004, 12:05:26 PM »

VA is not a swing state.
Logged
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,943


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: April 26, 2021, 02:44:31 PM »

16 years later and he is still correct Wink
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,349


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: April 26, 2021, 05:32:00 PM »

The reasoning why a shift of 7 points in CA would have meant 3-4 point shift elsewhere was bad in this thread. The reason is the types of voters that cause that shift are also in other states
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2021, 10:31:23 PM »

Wow. Correctly called VA being hotly contested in 2008.
Logged
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,920
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: -1.04

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2021, 12:09:04 PM »

This really didn't age well. VA is now safe state, for the Democrats.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.037 seconds with 13 queries.