Cook releases first 2012 Senate/House ratings

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I don't understand why he listed FL-3 as lean D. Corrine Brown isn't going anywhere in that D+18 gerrymandered mess of a district.

From what I have read, the new rules are going to screw her royally.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean democratic for senate FL, WVA, and PA , tups MA, MT, OH, MO, and VA and Lean GOP NV, ME, and Neb


Losses: MO, MT, NEB, VA  and probably MA likely

[Dgov]

I don't understand why he listed FL-3 as lean D. Corrine Brown isn't going anywhere in that D+18 gerrymandered mess of a district.

The new law will basically confine her district to Jacksonville, which leans Republican.  Some Other Democrat may be able to hold such a seat (will probably be close in the 2008 vote), but not her.

Although she could possibly win in the Orlando-based district that's certainly coming if she moved there, but she'd face a primary against the almost-guaranteed to try to make a comeback Grayson.

[Nichlemn]

I don't like so many "Solid" (and "Likely") ratings. If Cook is going for a consistent standard of competitiveness over time, then there should be far more Leans and Likelys two years out than shortly before an election. The reason is that so much more can potentially happen in two years than in two weeks, so it's much harder to be "safe."

For example, ND-Gov is Solid R? The new governor just got sworn in a couple of days ago, and he's safe already? Yes, it is pretty rare for an incumbent governor of a state's "right" party to win lose re-election (the last example was Jon Corzine, but before that, you have back to Mario Cuomo in 1994). Still, given he's a half-term unelected governor with no track record yet, I'd want to wait a few months before being that confident.

[Free Palestine]

lolwut @ Florida, North Dakota, Missouri, and Montana leaning D.

[bgwah]

I have to echo the comments on re-districting making this a fairly pointless exercise. A couple of WA's "swing" districts will change a lot in 2012.

I guess "Likely D" is reasonable enough for Cantwell. She'll probably win, particularly due to a poor GOP bench, but it's always nice to know who the opponent is before getting too confident.

[minionofmidas]

What do you think?

Bit early for that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kind of agree with the Senate map, except for WV (come on, Manchin won by 10 points in a rep wave during midterm elections, how could it even be competitive in 2012 ?). Also, maybe Michigan is a bit overconfident. As for CT, %I'd like to know what they mean by "lean D".

[Eraserhead]

Too freaking early.

That says it all. It hurts my head to even look at this right now. Time for a break.

[Stranger in a strange land]

waaaaaaaay too early. If the last cycle taught us anything, it's that we should try to predict elections two years out.

[dmmidmi]

Kind of agree with the Senate map, except for WV (come on, Manchin won by 10 points in a rep wave during midterm elections, how could it even be competitive in 2012 ?). Also, maybe Michigan is a bit overconfident. As for CT, %I'd like to know what they mean by "lean D".

This, pretty much.

CT is a little harder to "rank," I suppose. If one were to determine the likelihood that the winner of the election will caucus with the Democrats, this race would be Safe D. It would be odd to classify the race as a tossup, or lean race, as the winner is virtually certain to caucus with the Dems.

[Dgov]

Kind of agree with the Senate map, except for WV (come on, Manchin won by 10 points in a rep wave during midterm elections, how could it even be competitive in 2012 ?).

Manchin benefited greatly from the spontaneity of the election.  Republicans had to go with their best already-known candidate because of how late the election came, and he was less than ideal.  Also, Manchin ran basically as the Conservative with a "D" next to his name.  He's probably going to have to defend a lot of unpopular Liberal Votes running with Obama at the top of the ticket.

And if for some reason he starts voting like Zell Miller, then his seat is basically and Ideological tossup anyway.