Cook releases first 2012 Gub. Ratings

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http://cookpolitical.com/governors

What do you think about the ratings?

[Hash]

Mississippi Likely D? Yeah, nice job guys.

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Mississippi Likely D? Yeah, nice job guys.

...I saw that too. They'll probably change it in a few days...

[Holmes]

I hope New Hampshire stays Democratic... but I doubt Lynch will run again and the Dems' bench just got raped there last month. Kuster is running for Congress again I bet, and Hodes and CSP are pretty damaged.

[feeblepizza]

Kentucky is listed as "Leans Democratic." Nice.

[Holmes]

I'm surprised you like Beshear?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I expect the Republicans will do pretty well in 2012... Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington are all prime targets. Only realistic pickup opportunity for the Dems is Indiana, and that's only if Bayh runs.

[feeblepizza]

I'm surprised you like Beshear?

Overall, he's a pretty decent Governor. But the real issue isn't my opinion of Beshear, it's that Cook is apparently ignoring his 58% approval rating and massive lead in most polls.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

They have MS at Likely R now. I guess the Likely D was a mistake.

[redcommander]

I expect the Republicans will do pretty well in 2012... Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington are all prime targets. Only realistic pickup opportunity for the Dems is Indiana, and that's only if Bayh runs.

Bayh is probably too hated with Democrats to be electable anymore. He did after all cost them a senate seat out of selfishness.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I expect the Republicans will do pretty well in 2012... Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington are all prime targets. Only realistic pickup opportunity for the Dems is Indiana, and that's only if Bayh runs.

Bayh is probably too hated with Democrats to be electable anymore. He did after all cost them a senate seat out of selfishness.

Nah, he's the most electable Dem they have. I kind of doubt anyone would even challenge him in a primary if he ran for Governor.

[tmthforu94]

Indiana will only be a toss-up if Bayh runs, and will still probably be favored Republican, since we have a pretty strong bench here. Hoosier's like Daniels, and want to see his policies continued.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Indiana will only be a toss-up if Bayh runs, and will still probably be favored Republican, since we have a pretty strong bench here. Hoosier's like Daniels, and want to see his policies continued.

Ah, memories of 2006. When above the lowest low of Taft and Murkowski approvals (in the teens) you had Blunt, Fletcher and Daniels in the 30's. Amazing that Daniels managed to survive and is now a potential Presidential candidate when he looked DOA in 2008 for reelection more or less a serious a run for President.

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Indiana will only be a toss-up if Bayh runs, and will still probably be favored Republican, since we have a pretty strong bench here. Hoosier's like Daniels, and want to see his policies continued.

Ah, memories of 2006. When above the lowest low of Taft and Murkowski approvals (in the teens) you had Blunt, Fletcher and Daniels in the 30's. Amazing that Daniels managed to survive and is now a potential Presidential candidate when he looked DOA in 2008 for reelection more or less a serious a run for President.

It's also incredible that Blunt's father won by 13 points...

Things change quickly.

[Eraserhead]

Missouri should be at least "Lean D".

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Mississippi Likely D? Yeah, nice job guys.

...I saw that too. They'll probably change it in a few days...

They changed it to Likely R but I can't believe they ever put it at Likely D. 

[redcommander]

I expect the Republicans will do pretty well in 2012... Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington are all prime targets. Only realistic pickup opportunity for the Dems is Indiana, and that's only if Bayh runs.

Bayh is probably too hated with Democrats to be electable anymore. He did after all cost them a senate seat out of selfishness.

Nah, he's the most electable Dem they have. I kind of doubt anyone would even challenge him in a primary if he ran for Governor.

Well judging that since Joe Donnelly didn't chicken out of running for reelection like Bayh did, and actually won against a prominent and well-funded Republican in a swing district, I would say he is a better candidate for Democrats to run.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I expect the Republicans will do pretty well in 2012... Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington are all p
rime targets. Only realistic pickup opportunity for the Dems is Indiana, and that's only if Bayh runs.

Bayh is probably too hated with Democrats to be electable anymore. He did after all cost them a senate seat out of selfishness.

Nah, he's the most electable Dem they have. I kind of doubt anyone would even challenge him in a primary if he ran for Governor.

Well judging that since Joe Donnelly didn't chicken out of running for reelection like Bayh did, and actually won against a prominent and well-funded Republican in a swing district, I would say he is a better candidate for Democrats to run.

"Silent" Joe Donnelly only won by 2,700 votes. It's rather likely that he'll lose the seat in 2012 to that well funded Republican. Her grassroots people (I'm of them) are just waiting to see if she does. I'm just saying that Jackie Walorski will be back.

[redcommander]

I expect the Republicans will do pretty well in 2012... Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington are all p
rime targets. Only realistic pickup opportunity for the Dems is Indiana, and that's only if Bayh runs.

Bayh is probably too hated with Democrats to be electable anymore. He did after all cost them a senate seat out of selfishness.

Nah, he's the most electable Dem they have. I kind of doubt anyone would even challenge him in a primary if he ran for Governor.

Well judging that since Joe Donnelly didn't chicken out of running for reelection like Bayh did, and actually won against a prominent and well-funded Republican in a swing district, I would say he is a better candidate for Democrats to run.

"Silent" Joe Donnelly only won by 2,700 votes. It's rather likely that he'll lose the seat in 2012 to that well funded Republican. Her grassroots people (I'm of them) are just waiting to see if she does. I'm just saying that Jackie Walorski will be back.

I hope she is too since she was a fantastic candidate that should have won against him. I was saying Donnelly would probably be the most electable candidate Democrats could put forward in Indiana right now.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Missouri should be at least "Lean D".

Yes, and that's a very safe estimate too.  

It's very unlikely that Nixon can lose with a +16% approval spread, which he currently holds. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Missouri should be at least "Lean D".

Yes, and that's a very safe estimate too.  

It's very unlikely that Nixon can lose with a +16% approval spread, which he currently holds. 

On top of that, it's unlikely for things to get any worse for his party. 

[bgwah]

I would honestly bump Washington down from Likely D to Toss-up. Maybe Lean D.

McKenna will be the Republican candidate in 2012, and he will be formidable...

[redcommander]

I would honestly bump Washington down from Likely D to Toss-up. Maybe Lean D.

McKenna will be the Republican candidate in 2012, and he will be formidable...

I would say Toss up/ Leans Republican. The man has a proven ability to rack up heavy margins in King County.