PPP: Obama leads Rubio by 11, Palin by 9, Gingrich by 6, Huck by 3, Romney by 1

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just like Burr was this year in other words.

2010 was more of a wave than 2006 was in Democratic areas and Rubio is a far stronger candidate than Elaine Marshall. In other words, your comparison was a total joke.

Rubio couldn't even break 50% despite Crist collapsing amongst Republicans. He is not some savior-type candidate which is exactly what the GOP would've needed in 2006 (like for example Hoeven could've been). Can't you just admit Nelson would've been heavily favored?

Heavily favored? No. 2006 wasn't a 2010.

Actually popular vote wise they were pretty close:

2010 House popular vote: R 52.1%-D 44.8%
2006 House popular vote: D 52.0%-R 44.1%

You can't really compare Senate popular vote for obvious reasons.

The Republicans may have won a lot more seats but this is also largely because the Democrats had in the past two years won a bunch of seats that they would've had difficult holding even in a neutral year.

Now what makes Rubio such an amazing fantastic A-list candidate he could've done what no other Republican did that year? There's a difference between "competant" and that. You almost sound like you are arguing Rubio would be favored. Really he just strikes me as "generic Republican" and he performed about as well as I'd expect one to. "Generic Republican" will obviously not win in 2006.

Crist might have collapsed amongst Republicans but he was still on the ballot and there are still enough Moderate Heroes out there.

And I wonder who those Moderate Heroes would've voted for between Rubio and a moderate Democrat in 2006?

Amazing how in a three person race, you have to spin it that 49% isn't good enough for Rubio.

So is Hickenlooper who got just over 50% in a three-way race some amazing unbeatable candidate then?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fun fact: Christie was the US attorney who opened the investigation on Menendez just 60 days before the 2006 election and then leaked the investigation to the press.
I'm sure it was all a big coincidence.

Awww. So bitter.

Uhh...
Menendez won.

Bitter about Christie.

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Oh, yeah, must have been a giant conspiracy. Along with the Republicans Christie has prosecuted.

Hey, I'm not the one who considers Christie a knight in shining armor that fights corrupt Democrats with one hand and brings the Republicans back to the promised land with the other.

As for conspiracy, you have a saying about when something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck. The guy was always a partisan hack, so there is nothing really extraordinary about the way he tried to influence the election.
BTW, what happened to that investigation? Don't tell that it was somehow scrapped after the election because I will be very surprised!

[Bull Moose Base]

Rubio, without the kind of establishment or high-profile support he had in 2010, would probably have lost to Harris handily.  Or somehow been nominee then lost to Nelson by double digits.  Or somehow won, then voted for TARP and had less heat within the party now.  What about Rubio makes anyone think he should be president exactly?

More on topic, not sure Palin's primary chances are so hot if she can't up that % of Republicans who think she can win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rubio, without the kind of establishment or high-profile support he had in 2010, would probably have lost to Harris handily.  Or somehow been nominee then lost to Nelson by double digits.  Or somehow won, then voted for TARP and had less heat within the party now.  What about Rubio makes anyone think he should be president exactly?

More on topic, not sure Palin's primary chances are so hot if she can't up that % of Republicans who think she can win.

Luckily that's not much of a disadvantage with the GOP primary system. McCain had only won about a third of the vote in the states that had already voted by the time he locked up the GOP nomination.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What about Rubio makes anyone think he should be president exactly?

He is a handsome minority candidate that can finish his sentences coherently.
Which is more than we can say about the last Republican Vice-Presidential candidate (not to mention the last Republican President).

[Keystone Phil]

Now what makes Rubio such an amazing fantastic A-list candidate he could've done what no other Republican did that year? There's a difference between "competant" and that. You almost sound like you are arguing Rubio would be favored. Really he just strikes me as "generic Republican" and he performed about as well as I'd expect one to. "Generic Republican" will obviously not win in 2006.

Sure, you think he's "generic." You don't give credit to the opposition. Ever.

Meanwhile, everyone else recognizes his talent. His campaign was terrific. To win by double digits in a three way race in a swing state against a sitting Governor that wasn't terribly unpopular is impressive. Again, you won't acknowledge it because you are a bitter person.

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Perception of Rubio has gone from "he's a fire breathing far right wing danger" to "he's competent and respectable." I'm not saying Rubio would have won but he certainly would have had a good shot.

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He was running against two of the biggest jokes in Colorado politics. Again, terrible comparison.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio, without the kind of establishment or high-profile support he had in 2010, would probably have lost to Harris handily.  Or somehow been nominee then lost to Nelson by double digits.  Or somehow won, then voted for TARP and had less heat within the party now.  What about Rubio makes anyone think he should be president exactly?

More on topic, not sure Palin's primary chances are so hot if she can't up that % of Republicans who think she can win.

Luckily that's not much of a disadvantage with the GOP primary system. McCain had only won about a third of the vote in the states that had already voted by the time he locked up the GOP nomination.

True, but the RNC has changed the delegate allocation rules this time so that any state with a primary before April 1 will be forced to allocate their delegates by PR rather than WTA.  They're trying to incentivize states to move primaries later, so that frontloading doesn't become insane.....but I doubt it'll work.

[Mr. Morden]

I forgot to list one matchup here:

Obama 48%
generic Republican 47%

also, fav / unfavorables among all voters:

Bloomberg 19% / 38%
Huckabee 39% / 40%
Palin 38% / 55%
Gingrich 33% / 53%
Romney 36% / 42%
Rubio 23% / 33%

fav / unfavorables among Republicans only:

Huckabee 68% / 18%
Palin 67% / 25%
Gingrich 58% / 27%
Romney 59% / 21%
Rubio 40% / 19%

Bloomberg has stronger favorability #s among Democrats than Republicans, yet he draws more support away from Romney than Obama in a 3-way matchup.

[Keystone Phil]

The guy was always a partisan hack, so there is nothing really extraordinary about the way he tried to influence the election.

You continue to ignore that he has prosecuted Republicans, too, but you want to lecture others about hackery. Classic.

Why do you still sport that Independent avatar? You're one of the biggest hacks for the Dems here.

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Well, it wasn't scrapped so I guess you won't be stunned.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Now what makes Rubio such an amazing fantastic A-list candidate he could've done what no other Republican did that year? There's a difference between "competant" and that. You almost sound like you are arguing Rubio would be favored. Really he just strikes me as "generic Republican" and he performed about as well as I'd expect one to. "Generic Republican" will obviously not win in 2006.

Sure, you think he's "generic." You don't give credit to the opposition. Ever.

Meanwhile, everyone else recognizes his talent. His campaign was terrific. To win by double digits in a three way race in a swing state against a sitting Governor that wasn't terribly unpopular is impressive. Again, you won't acknowledge it because you are a bitter person.

He had the national tide on his side as Meek basically being a spoiler since he never had any chance and was a spoiler. He didn't do anything impressive enough to do what no other Republican did in 2006 which as I noted and you ignored was basically a direct mirror of 2010.

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Perception of Rubio has gone from "he's a fire breathing far right wing danger" to "he's competent and respectable." I'm not saying Rubio would have won but he certainly would have had a good shot.[/quote]

It takes a hell of a lot more than "respectable and competant" to win in a wave year for the other party. Not like Bill Nelson isn't "respectable and competant" either (not that he's all that impressive of course but that is kind of my point.)

This kind of reminds me of the type of arguments as to why Palin was so impressive actually...

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He was running against two of the biggest jokes in Colorado politics. Again, terrible comparison.

Meek was a useless joke. Crist didn't start out as one but he might as well have been with the way he ran his campaign, at least among Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rubio, without the kind of establishment or high-profile support he had in 2010, would probably have lost to Harris handily.  Or somehow been nominee then lost to Nelson by double digits.  Or somehow won, then voted for TARP and had less heat within the party now.  What about Rubio makes anyone think he should be president exactly?

More on topic, not sure Palin's primary chances are so hot if she can't up that % of Republicans who think she can win.

Luckily that's not much of a disadvantage with the GOP primary system. McCain had only won about a third of the vote in the states that had already voted by the time he locked up the GOP nomination.

True, but the RNC has changed the delegate allocation rules this time so that any state with a primary before April 1 will be forced to allocate their delegates by PR rather than WTA.  They're trying to incentivize states to move primaries later, so that frontloading doesn't become insane.....but I doubt it'll work.

Oh so even the RNC basically agrees with what partisan Democrats were saying against partisan Republicans in 2008?

(Though it was kind of amusing how Republicans complained about the un-democraticness of caucuses, because of course the Republicans don't have those.)

[Keystone Phil]

He had the national tide on his side as Meek basically being a spoiler since he never had any chance and was a spoiler. He didn't do anything impressive enough to do what no other Republican did in 2006 which as I noted and you ignored was basically a direct mirror of 2010.

He won by double digits in a swing state after being portrayed as being outside of the mainstream throughout the entire campaign.

Nelson's ratings were worse than Crist's. Please stop hiding behind this "No other Republican could pick up a seat in 2006." That doesn't affect individual races.

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But Rubio wasn't the one sitting with what? An approval rating in the high 30s or low 40s? A challenger doesn't have to be Messiah-like to win in that environment.

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They still weren't worse than Tancredo and Maes and you know it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The guy was always a partisan hack, so there is nothing really extraordinary about the way he tried to influence the election.

You continue to ignore that he has prosecuted Republicans, too, but you want to lecture others about hackery. Classic.

Oh, I don't doubt that he might have prosecuted some token corrupt Republican. That doesn't change the fact that he "remembered" that Menendez was corrupt only when the 2006 election approached and then leaked it to the media.

Why do you still sport that Independent avatar? You're one of the biggest hacks for the Dems here.

Because I'm a foreigner?

Well, it wasn't scrapped so I guess you won't be stunned.

They are still investigating after four years? Talk about slow moving justice.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, I don't doubt that he might have prosecuted some token corrupt Republican. That doesn't change the fact that he "remembered" that Menendez was corrupt only when the 2006 election approached and then leaked it to the media.

Ha! "Token." More proof that you're not interested in knowing anything that might be positive about the guy and are only interested in bashing him.

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"Other" would be more appropriate then. 

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Yes, they should have just convicted him so you could claim that it's even more of a sham. Here's a news flash: investigating high ranking officials isn't something you breeze through. But you know that and, again, are only interested in trashing someone.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Oh, I don't doubt that he might have prosecuted some token corrupt Republican. That doesn't change the fact that he "remembered" that Menendez was corrupt only when the 2006 election approached and then leaked it to the media.

Ha! "Token." More proof that you're not interested in knowing anything that might be positive about the guy and are only interested in bashing him.

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"Other" would be more appropriate then. 

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Yes, they should have just convicted him so you could claim that it's even more of a sham. Here's a news flash: investigating high ranking officials isn't something you breeze through. But you know that and, again, are only interested in trashing someone.

1)You latch onto a single word and avoid answering the facts.

2)I like green better.

3)Rangel's and Waters' investigations were finished much more swiftly. If there was evidence of corruption against Menendez then senate Republicans would have raised hell about that, like they did with Dodd.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, I don't doubt that he might have prosecuted some token corrupt Republican. That doesn't change the fact that he "remembered" that Menendez was corrupt only when the 2006 election approached and then leaked it to the media.

Ha! "Token." More proof that you're not interested in knowing anything that might be positive about the guy and are only interested in bashing him.

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"Other" would be more appropriate then. 

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Yes, they should have just convicted him so you could claim that it's even more of a sham. Here's a news flash: investigating high ranking officials isn't something you breeze through. But you know that and, again, are only interested in trashing someone.

1)You latch onto a single word and avoid answering the facts.

What's the question? "Was it or was it not a conspiracy that the investigation was leaked to the press?" I don't know. Do you know for certain that it was?

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You can't compare Rangel's and Water's investigations in the House (which were jokes but you, of course, ignore that) to that of a U.S. Attorney's. They are separate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What's the question? "Was it or was it not a conspiracy that the investigation was leaked to the press?" I don't know. Do you know for certain that it was?

Let's just say that the timing and Christie's past and future don't allow us to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You can't compare Rangel's and Water's investigations in the House (which were jokes but you, of course, ignore that) to that of a U.S. Attorney's. They are separate.

Tom DeLay was convicted after four years of investigations. Bob Ney after even less than that.
Menendez hasn't even been investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee. Obviously there is nothing there or else we would know it by now (like we did with Burns, Pombo, Doolittle, etc.).

[redcommander]

Glad to see that Romney is the most electable Republican.

[Keystone Phil]

Let's just say that the timing and Christie's past and future don't allow us to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Yeah, let's say that.    Give me a shout when you decide to be even somewhat fair to the opposition.

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Enough evidence that four years of investigating isn't unheard of.

[Landslide Lyndon]

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Enough evidence that four years of investigating isn't unheard of.

What's unheard of is four years of investigation producing zero evidence. If the investigation is still active then it seems like a waste of time to me.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Phil: Nelson had a 44-25 approval rating in July 27, 2006 according to Quinnipiac.  

[Keystone Phil]

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Enough evidence that four years of investigating isn't unheard of.

What's unheard of is four years of investigation producing zero evidence. If the investigation is still active then it seems like a waste of time to me.

There are other problems to consider: Christie's successor is responsible for handling the situation. Guess who suggested the successor? Here's a hint: the President picks new U.S. Attorneys and both Senators from the state are of the President's party.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil: Nelson had a 44-25 approval rating in July 27, 2006 according to Quinnipiac.  

Thanks. I knew they weren't as bad as Phil is claiming but didn't have a cite.

The big thing would be Iraq. Rubio couldn't take an anti-war position and win the primary, and couldn't take a pro-war position and win the general in 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil: Nelson had a 44-25 approval rating in July 27, 2006 according to Quinnipiac.  

Thanks. I knew they weren't as bad as Phil is claiming but didn't have a cite.

Not exactly a great reference since it was taken in July. At that point, it was pretty clear the alternative would be Katherine Harris so quite a few people might have thought to themselves, "Uh...we certainly like him when all things are considered."

[Landslide Lyndon]

There are other problems to consider: Christie's successor is responsible for handling the situation. Guess who suggested the successor? Here's a hint: the President picks new U.S. Attorneys and both Senators from the state are of the President's party.

Ignoring the fact that for two years the investigation continued under a Republican attorney and still produced zero evidence, I'm happy to see you admitting that there is politicking involved in the prosecution of elected officials (Don Siegelman anyone?).
Now of course you believe that it's only the dastardly Democrats who do such a thing while Christie was a paradigm of ethics, but it's a start nonetheless.

Phil: Nelson had a 44-25 approval rating in July 27, 2006 according to Quinnipiac. 

Thanks. I knew they weren't as bad as Phil is claiming but didn't have a cite.

Not exactly a great reference since it was taken in July. At that point, it was pretty clear the alternative would be Katherine Harris so quite a few people might have thought to themselves, "Uh...we certainly like him when all things are considered."

The primary was more than a month away but keep moving those goalposts Phil.