US House Redistricting: California

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one thing that needs to be drawn is a black majority district in LA. It can be done. According to a 1978 article, it said that Augustus Hawkins represented a 59 percent black district.

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what makes you think it wouldn't be majority black by next decade? In L.A. blacks are to mexicans what Native Americans are to whites in 1870s Montana.

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i noticed that Mary Bono's district had the most excess population. The eastern part of the district I absorbed into CA 51.

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one idea I had was to draw a "republican depository" district in orange county. It basically takes in all of the CD 42 portion of it (except for La Habra), takes in the most republican areas of CD 40 (Villa Park, city of Orange), and the most republican areas of CD 48 (like Lake Forest). The district probably gave McCain 58 percent,and Bush around 65 percent.

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i for one think that Gary Miller needs to be drawn out of his seat. He was first elected in 98 in what was then a marginal district in LA County. In 2001, they decided to protect him by gluing his home of Diamond Bar to the most republican precincts from Chris Cox and Ron Packard's districts. How does he thank the redistricting people? By acting like a corrupt fatcat.

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i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?

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What Torie said, though I'm a bit surprised that southern/southeast OC is not that Republican anymore. Not only is this area wealthy (places like Mission Vejo, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita), but it's also pretty white (like 70-80%).
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Keep in mind that my southeast quadrant includes Irvine, which is surprisingly willing to vote democratic.

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what's going to happen to Jim Costa? When the district was drawn in 2001, the 20th was supposed to be a "token democrat" district in the otherwise conservative San Joaquin Valley. It basically took in all the democratic precincts in Fresno and Bakersfield and connected them through I-5 and was supposed to help make Bill Thomas safer. The district is oddly shaped and Costa barely was re-elected in a D+5 district. If they draw a more compact district, he could be DOA.

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anybody like this map of Orange County?

The tan district is the new 39th district. This is an open seat and takes in Brea, Villa Park, Yorba Linda, Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente and other areas. This district is 62% white. If Bob Dornan is ever interested this is his chance to return to congress. LOL.

The Orange district around Irvine is District 48. 52 percent white district. This is John Campbell's district.

Ruby Red District is District 46. This is a 51 percent white district. This is Dana Rohrabacher's seat.


Lavender District is District 47.  This is a 59 percent hispanic district. Loretta Sanchez would run here.

Dark brown district is District 40. This is a hispanic plurality district at 46 percent. Ed Royce would face Gary Miller in the primary here.

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btw, what is with all those precincts that contain 50,000+ people? In fact there was a precinct in Torrace that had over 100,000 people. Aren't there laws that state that precincts can't have more than a certain population? Imagine how crowded the polling station would be on election day.

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I think most of Garden Grove is in the 46th district in that map although I'm not sure. I don't think the map would elect five republicans though. This map was meant to penalize Ed Royce and Gary Miller for speaking at that blatantly xenophobic anti-muslim rally by putting them in the same district. There would probably be an expensive primary and would deplete most of their resources leading to the winner of the primary losing re-election in the general.

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i've looked on ssp posts before about redistricting California. Is it true that you could draw a district where Obama only got 32%? It would basically take in the most GOP areas from the current 21st and 22nd districts. I know its an independent commission, but it would still be cool if they drew a map like that.

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DISTRICT 53 Duncan D. Hunter (R-Lakeside)
52.6% White
Obviously less safe with Imperial County added; but his dad always did OK when his district contained IC in the 80s and 90s.

DISTRICT 52 Bob Filner (D-San Diego)
54.7% Hispanic
He is rumored to be running for mayor in 2012. If that is the case, Ben Hueso may run here.

DISTRICT 51 Susan Davis (D-San Diego)
55.1% White
Obama probably got 65% here. That shocks me seeing as this district is over 55% white, and that San Diego has a conservative reputation.

DISTRICT 50 Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad)
57.1% White
Bilbray should be OK here, especially as he has a somewhat moderate voting record.

DISTRICT 49 Darrell Issa (R-Vista)
52.9% White
The PVI here is probably similar to his old district. Despite being a sociopath, Issa should be safe here.

DISTRICT 48 John Campbell (R-Irvine)
63.3% White
Campbell gets safer here taking in a lot of uber-gop precincts in Miller and Calvert’s district.

DISTRICT 47 Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)
52.2% White
Basically a mix of rich republican neocons in the beach communities and Vietnamese republicans in other areas. Rohrabacher should be safe here.

DISTRICT 46 Loretta Sanchez (D-Anaheim)
61.4% Hispanic
Less Hispanic than the other district, but still probably about 58% Obama.










DISTRICT 45 Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)
43.8% White
36.7% Hispanic
15.3% Asian
2.3% Other
1.6% Black
.2% Native
This adds Yorba Linda and is probably an R+10 district. If this district could elect a nutcase like Bill Dannemeyer, Royce (who actually has a voting record similar to Dannemeyer) should keep winning here.

DISTRICT 44 Ken Calvert (R-Corona)
47.9% Hispanic
34.9% White
8.6% Asian
5.9% Black
2.3% Other
.4% Native
Under this map, Calvert would have won in 2010, but probably lost in 2008 as the OC precincts have been removed.

DISTRICT 43 Open
47.7% Hispanic
35.9% White
8.8% Black
4.6% Asian
2.5% Other
.5% Native
This is basically Bono Mack’s district with the eastern part chopped off. This has no incumbent. Gary Miller may run here.

DISTRICT 42 Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)
49.4% White
42.2% Hispanic
2.9% Black
2.5% Asian
1.8% Other
1.1% Native
Bono Mack gets safer here as she takes in Inyo and Mono counties as well as the redneck/methhead precincts from Lewis’ district.






DISTRICT 41 Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands)
41.7% White
40.2% Hispanic
9.8% Black
5.1% Asian
2.8% Other
.5% Native
Lewis should be safe here, though he should retire soon

DISTRICT 40 Joe Baca (D-Rialto)
69.3% Hispanic
I’m surprised one could make a suburban district this Hispanic. Safe Democrat

DISTRICT 39 David Dreier (R-San Dimas)
41.8% Hispanic
38.3% White
11.4% Asian
5.8% Black
2.5% Other
.3% Native
He can win here, but he will probably have some tough races over the next 5 cycles.

DISTRICT 38 Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar)
59.6% Hispanic
Campbell and Royce all have safer districts at the expense of Miller. A Republican with a Bono-Mack like voting record could win here, but Miller wouldn’t. I could see him possibly carpet bagging to the new 43rd district.

DISTRICT 37 Judy Chu (D-Monterrey Park)
53.7% Hispanic She technically lives in the 35th, but most of her district is here. She should be safe in this district. I’m guessing it is probably a D+15.

DISTRICT 36 Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)
43.6% White
27% Hispanic
21.8% Asian
4.5% Black
3% Other
.1% Native
The white % here is surprisingly high. This is probably a D+teen district. Schiff should be safe




DISTRICT 35 Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles)
69.9% Hispanic
Safe Dem.

DISTRICT 34 Lucille Roybal Allard (D-Los Angeles)
87.4% Hispanic
Welcome to Tijuana. Roybal is obviously safe, but she may retire soon as she is almost 70.

DISTRICT 33 Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk)
49.4% Hispanic
24.4% White
19.1% Asian
4.8% Black
2% Other
.2% Native
It does take in some of Orange County, but Napolitano or any dem should be okay. Napolitano is nearly 75 soon so she may retire.

DISTRICT 32 Linda Sanchez (D-Lakewood) vs Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach)
43.1% Hispanic
24.5% White
16.5% Black
12.9% Asian
2.7% Other
.3% Native
Time to get rid of Laura Richardson.

DISTRICT 31 whoever replaces Harman
37.5% White
33.2% Hispanic
19.2% Asian
6.6% Black
3.3% Other
.2% Native
This should be a lean dem district. Also home.

DISTRICT 30 Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) vs. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles)
34.3% Hispanic
30.8% White
24% Black
7.6% Asian
3.1% Other
.2% Native
Waters obviously has the seniority but she is also a corrupt b!tch. Hopefully this district gets rid of her
DISTRICT 29 Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles)
45.6% Hispanic
22.4% White
19.5% Black
9.7% Asian
2.7% Other
.2% Native
It is difficult redrawing this area as there are so many precincts with over 50,000 people. The racial percentages obviously piss Waxman off, but he should be ok. Waxman strikes me as someone like John Dingell meaning he will never retire.

DISTRICT 28 Howard Berman (D-North Hollywood)
45% White
31.7% Hispanic
16.8% Asian
3.8% Black
2.6% Other
.1% Native
Berman is safe here, but he may retire soon.

DISTRICT 27 Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks)
42.8% Hispanic
41.4% White
9.3% Asian
3.6% Black
2.7% Other
.2% Native
Sherman probably doesn’t like the racial percentages here, but he is still safe.

DISTRICT 26 Open
52.3% Hispanic
Obviously a safe dem. Does anyone know of any good democrats in the Legislature that could run here?

DISTRICT 25 Howard McKeon (R-Santa Clarita)
45.5% White
34.9% Hispanic
9.4% Black
6.9% Asian
2.9% Other
.3% Native
This district is probably an R+3 or something like that. He should be alright for now, but he may retire soon. This district could conceivably go dem when he does.

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DISTRICT 24 Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley)
50% White
He technically lives in District 25, but he probably will run here. He should be OK here.

DISTRICT 23 Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara)
54.5% White
Capps is over 70 and may retire soon. This is now probably a D+6 district as it is more compact. Whoever runs here should be somewhat safe unless there is another 2010 type holocaust soon.

DISTRICT 22 Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)
48.1% Hispanic
39.6% White
5.3% Black
4.3% Asian
2% Other
.7% Native
Since Costa has a less safe district, guess where all the dem precincts went? The white % in this district is probably be alarming for him, but this is still probably an R+8 and the whites probably vote 70-30 republican and not all the Hispanics are old enough or registered.

DISTRICT 21 Devin Nunes (R-Tulare)
54.7% Hispanic
This district is now majority Hispanic, but it was also under 50% white when he was first elected, yet Nunes always seems to overperform here. Considering the whites here have redneck voting habits, Nunes should be safe.

DISTRICT 20 Jim Costa (D-Fresno)
58% Hispanic
Costa barely squeaked by in a safer district in 2010. He did however do much better his first three elections, so he may be okay here. It also helps that he, like Cardoza, is a true Centrist.

DISTRICT 19 Jeff Denham (R-Atwater)
43.6% White
43.4% Hispanic
6.8% Asian
3.1% Black
2.3% Other
.8% Native
Dennis Cardoza lives here but I doubt he wants to run here. Jeff Denham should be okay here for the time being, but the district is less than 50% White, so he may eventually have as tough race. It helps him that the whites here vote similar to Tennessee.


DISTRICT 18 Dennis Cardoza (D-Atwater)
45.1% White
41.8% Hispanic
6.3% Asian
3.2% Black
3% Other
.5% Native
Cardoza doesn’t live here, but he probably doesn’t want to face off against Denham. This is a marginal district, but Cardoza should be ok considering that he is the most conservative of the CA democrats.

DISTRICT 17 John Giramendi (D-Walnut Grove)
43.6% White
34.1% Hispanic
12.2% Asian
6.2% Black
3.2% Other
.7% Native’
Giramendi lives here, but I don’t think he wants to run here. The return of Richard Pombo?

DISTRICT 16 John Giramendi (D-Walnut Grove)
41.6% White
25.2% Hispanic
16.8% Asian
10.8% Black
5.1% Other
.4% Native
Technically this is an open seat, but Giramendi may carpetbag here. This should be safe democratic district

DISTRICT 15 Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento)
37.2% White
27.1% Hispanic
17% Asian
13.3% Black
4.8% Other
.6% Native
This is probably the most democratic district in the inland part of the state. Safe Dem

DISTRICT 14 Dan Lungren (R-Gold River)
66.4% White
This is basically a suburban Sacramento seat. Lungren always seems to underperform here and may eventually be unseated. It could however be won back by a better republican (see Marilyn Musgrave)

DISTRICT 13 Tom McClintock (R-Roseville)
72.5% White
McClintock is scum, but anyone with Placer County in their district should be okay.
DISTRICT 12 Wally Herger (R-Chico)
75% White
This area is similar to southern Oregon. I’m guessing the district is somewhat libertarian in their views. Safe Republican

DISTRICT 11 Mike Thompson (D-St Helena)
66.6% White
Wineries, Potheads, Environmentalists. Good luck Republicans.

DISTRICT 10 Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma)
54.8% White
This is a safe democrat district, but Woolsey may retire soon as she will be 75 in 2012.

DISTRICT 9 George Miller (D-Martinez)
54.5% White
If you can survive 1980, 1994, and 2010, you are pretty much safe for life. Next.

DISTRICT 8 Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)
34.9% White
21.2% Hispanic
19.9% Asian
19.3% Black
4.4% Other
.3% Native
Lee is a borderline Marxist, but that probably is a plus in this district. Obama easily got over 80% here. Safe Dem.

DISTRICT 7 Pete Stark (D-Fremont)
36.7% White
28.3% Asian
24.2% Hispanic
6.3% Black
4.2% Other
.3% Native
This is a safe district for Stark. He will either have retired or be dead (or both) between now and the next times the lines are redrawn.







DISTRICT 6 Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton)
40% Asian
34.4% Hispanic
19.6% White
3% Black
2.8% Other
.2% Native
McNerney gets a lot safer here as all the areas from the SJ Valley are excised out.

DISTRICT 5 Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose)
43.7% White
34.5% Asian
15.7% Hispanic
3.8% Other
2% Black
.2% Native
Safe Democrat. Nuff said.

DISTRICT 4 Mike Honda (D-San Jose)
39.9% White
34.6% Hispanic
20% Asian
2.9% Other
2.3% Black
.3% Native
Again, no republican save for Tom Campbell has a chance here. Honda may retire soon, as he too is almost 70.

DISTRICT 3 Sam Farr (D-Carmel)
49.3% White
39.5% Hispanic
6.3% Asian
3% Other
1.6% Black
.3% Native
Safe Dem. Farr may retire soon as he is almost 70 years old.

DISTRICT 2 Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) vs Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough)
Obama easily got above 70% here. The primary will be the real election here. I’m not sure who would win. Eshoo has far more experience, but she is also nearly 70 years old.
33.4% White
32.6% Asian
26.9% Hispanic
3.6% Other
3.5% Black
.2% Native

DISTRICT 1 Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco)
This is San Francisco so this is obviously a safe district. How long Pelosi stays in office depends on whether or not the dems regain power and if they do, if she will be voted back in as speaker.

46.2% White
30.7% Asian
13.5% Hispanic
5.7% Black
3.7% Other
.2% Native

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I drew these districts as compact as possible (as the new law states). Districts 34, 35, and 40 were the only places where it was possible to draw a compact district where the majority of registered voters were hispanic

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krazen didn't specifically say whether he liked the districts or not. I don't see why he would dislike it. I think this map could possibly be a 31 Democrat 22 Republican map.

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well regardless, krazen is almost as bad as timothyinmd in his blowhardedness

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what is with all that yellow sh**t? Its pretty annoying.

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anyways in Orange County:

Royce's district probably stays the same. It cuts off some marginal areas in the SW part of the district but also adds Anaheim. It looks a lot like the 39th district in the 1980s. He may have to face off against Loretta Sanchez. 

John Campbell's district gets even more safe as it adds in Rancho Santa Margarita and Cota de Caza.

Rohrabacher's district is probably down to an R+2. Although it adds 58% McCain Newport Beach, it also adds 65% Obama Santa Ana.


I also notice how some precincts in Orange County are kidnapped into LA County. It probably makes Linda Sanchez's district less safe, but she should be okay.

Gary Miller of course is pretty much DOA as his district is now majority hispanic.

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my thoughts on each district:

Bay Area

Contra Costa (District 7): This should be George Miller's district. He is pretty much safe here as he has survived both 1980, 1994, and 2010

Fremont-Newark Union City (District 13): This should be Pete Stark's district. Jerry McNerney may move here and challenge him in the primary though. This could be reminiscent of Lowery vs Cunningham back in 92.

Oakland (District 9): Barbara Lee, despite her radical stances, should be safe here.

San Jose (District 16): Zoe Lofgren, safe democratic district.

San Francisco (District Nancy Pelosi's seat. Obviously safe democrat.

South Santa Clara (District 15) Mike Honda. Safe democrat seat unless Tom Campbell runs and even then its an uphill climb.

San Mateo (District 12) Jackie Speier. Safe democrat

San Mateo-Santa Cruz-Santa Clara (District 14) Anna Eshoo. Safe democrat.

Yolo-Solano-Napa (District 10) John Garamendi. Safe democrat

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looks like a 36-17 map which sounds pretty good.

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actually the D+3 district contains his home in Imperial Beach. He is still well liked there and was mayor there before being elected to the old 49th district (which covers a lot of this area) in 1994.

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the final draft is out. Minor changes to the 47th and 48th districts. Sanchez's districts becomes a hispanic vote sink and Campbell's district looks like the old 47th in the 1990s in the sense that it contains Villa Park and Orange. Difference is that the coastal areas are given to Rohrabacher

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had prop 20 not been passed here is what the central valley would look like IMO:

District 11 is the white areas of Stockton and Modesto connected by some mountain counties. This is 57 percent white, 53 percent McCain. Dick Pombo probably runs here.

District 18 is a Stockton, Modesto, Merced district. In all my dem districts I made sure not a single precinct had a white majority. District 18 is plurality hispanic (47 or 48 percent) and around 15 percent Asian. Obama got 64 percent there. This would be Cardoza's district.

District 19 is the white areas of Tulare, King, Fresno, and Madera and Mariposa counties. Devin Nunes and Jeff Denham have been drawn together in this 55 percent white, 60 percent McCain district.

District 20 is a Fresno/Madera district. It is around 60 percent hispanic and Obama got about 61 percent here. Jim Costa would represent this district.

District 21 takes in parts of Tulare, Kings, Kern, and small port of Fresno county. It is probably in the top 10 poorest districts in the country. It is around 72 percent hispanic and Obama won here by six points. Andy Vidak probably runs against Mike Rubio here.

District 22 takes in most of Bakersfield and parts of SLO County. It is 53 percent white and 60-61 percent McCain. McCarthy would run there.