US House Redistricting: California

[DrScholl]

I drew that map, glad it got some discussion going here.

Lungren will almost certainly have his seat contained to Sacramento County and may end up facing Garamendi, who would very likely defeat him. Even with another opponent, he'd be the underdog.

[DrScholl]

one thing that needs to be drawn is a black majority district in LA. It can be done. According to a 1978 article, it said that Augustus Hawkins represented a 59 percent black district.

Those parts are becoming more and more Hispanic, many Blacks have moved out to places like the Antelope Valley and Inland Empire, so it's not easy to do a compact black district. A black representative can still get elected, because the political bench and structure there still is mostly black.

[DrScholl]

Bilbray will probably end up with a less favorable district, something encompassing the coast, close to the 1990 version, but expanded out a bit more. Davis would be pushed inland.

[DrScholl]

I merged Miller's portion with Royce, while bringing Issa up a bit more. Rohrabacher can stay completely within Orange County and Sanchez keeps a majority Hispanic district.

[DrScholl]

Imperial County was attached to CA-52 in the 1990 round of redistricting, it looks cleaner on the map if it's done like that.

[DrScholl]

I think water continuity might be something the commission chooses to avoid when it comes to San Francisco County. If you compact the Silicon Valley districts just right, you leave enough of San Mateo County available for the San Francisco district to scoop up.

[DrScholl]

But was that more to suit legislators, or due to real communities of interest? With the commission in charge, districts designed to keep incumbents happy may not fare so well.

That was to give San Francisco two seats in the state senate, under fair lines, it would only have one.

[DrScholl]

Less county splits will be done, but this a pretty rough idea of what might happen. Regarding CA-24, it looks about D+3 or D+4, which would be a climb for Gallegly.

And btw, if you start restricting the VRA to registered voters, you'd get very messy districts. I don't think judicial activism has any place in redistricting to game the system for one party.

[DrScholl]

I was referring to exactly that. White liberals in California made sure that Hispanic voters have less opportunities to elect a candidate of their choice and that's why they have so few of 53 districts.

I only believe in consistency. Nothing more or less.

You clearly do not know the makeup of the districts, the VRA is practically maxed out in California, at least by the standards of the 2000 Census. More VRA districts can be created, but it would mean that some Republicans would be out, here it doesn't do much to boost Republicans.

I see many Republicans saying that southern states shouldn't have VRA districts, so there's clear a double standard on the right too.

[DrScholl]

Unless there is completely non-biased, commission based redistricting everywhere, the VRA needs to be followed strictly and even with fair districts, it would still need to be enforced some. The VRA is used so much because Republican cannot have safe districts without it packing voters in some places.

[DrScholl]

Sanchez's district is almost certain to change since the Hispanic VAP isn't majority. As for Capps, her district is the same one she won three times before and the area has grown more Democratic than it was back then, so she's fine there.

[DrScholl]

Partisan data for the state is now available.

[DrScholl]

In LA County, there was a lot of concern about an African-American seat being cut, so they put Torrance in with Compton to leave at least an opportunity district.

[DrScholl]

Costa will probably run in the new CA-16, leaving CA-21 open for someone like Dean Florez. It's such a heavy Hispanic district, I have a hard time seeing a Republican winning it, since they don't do well with Hispanics in California at all.

Republicans would need a moderate to win the Yuba to Solano County district, the lower portion of the district wouldn't vote for anyone too conservative. Garamendi is a good fit and can hold it.

Capps has won a district that looks like that three times before, when the area was points more Republican and on top of that, she does her job well.

[DrScholl]

For one thing, he lives in CA-16 and it's a safer option than CA-21.

[DrScholl]

That is a poor explanation for why a Congressman would run against his more popular friend in his friend's previous district.

You asked and I gave a reason. We all know politicians will run in districts that are safer in order protect their own interests, that's nothing new and it's not a poor explanation.

[DrScholl]

Its a poor explanation. Costa has no chance in that primary. It isn't his district and he isn't as popular anyways.

Whatever. These are all highly reconfigured districts and there's no guaranteed results in any of them, so we'll just wait and see what happens and see who is right then.

[DrScholl]

I count 38 districts that both Obama and Brown won. If Brown could carry a district in 2010 of all years, then it at least Leans Democratic in even a poor or neutral year. The real swing districts are CA-10, CA-52 and CA-26, the latter of which being the most winnable for Democrats.

[DrScholl]

I count 38 districts that both Obama and Brown won. If Brown could carry a district in 2010 of all years, then it at least Leans Democratic in even a poor or neutral year. The real swing districts are CA-10, CA-52 and CA-26, the latter of which being the most winnable for Democrats.

CA-52 is Bilbray's district. Brown lost it by 8 points.

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/CD52.png

I know whose district it is and what the numbers are, thank you. Obama won this new version in 2008 by about 2 points than he did the old one, which shifts the PVI. It's fair to call it a swing district, since it has potential to shift in Dem year.

[DrScholl]

Lungren's seat goes from R+6, to maybe R+1 or R+0 and the suburbs are trending very Democratic.

[DrScholl]

Gallegly's home and base of Simi Valley being cut out of the district puts him at a big disadvantage, especially when the seat now takes on Oxnard. He's never run a competitive race and probably does not want to start now. He almost retired in 2006, so it's conceivable he may not run.

The primary is now like Louisana's, everyone runs on the same ticket and the top two advance. There will be several same party general election matchups.

[DrScholl]

Long Beach has Republican pockets, particularly closer to Orange County, but it's still quite blue. It weighs very heavily on the district as a whole, even with Republican leaning areas in Orange.