US House Redistricting: California

[Landslide Lyndon]

From Swing State Project, a map that conforms to the realities of non-partisan redistricting and compact districts.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8028/redistricting-california

Overall, that would be almost a net gain of 6 for the Democrats, just from drawing more compact districts. In reality, it will probably be 4 or 5, because I'm sure the Central Valley will turn out a bit differently than I had it, but there will nonetheless be another swing district up no matter how they draw it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The SSP map in the OP link seems to focus too much on counties and compactness then it looks at partisan balance. I don't see any analysis of Hispanic representation. I think that may be more of a factor than many are giving thought towards. When I looked this summer using criteria from the commission I found that I could create 18 Hispanic-majority districts, 15 of which exceeded 60% Hispanic.

Maybe the Obama DOJ won't insist so much in California if there is a better chance for the Democrats to score gains without too many VRA districts.
If they want to appease Hispanics they can do that by demanding 3 new Hispanic majority districts in Texas and a second one in Arizona.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Republicans want to repeal the maps via referendum if they're similar to the "visualizations". Good luck with that.

Are they stupid or what? Do they prefer to be gerrymandered to oblivion by the Dem legislature and Brown?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Some numbers from Dave Wasserman.

• Garamendi (if he runs in the new 3rd) goes from 66.1% Obama to 56.2%
• Denham (if he runs in Modesto) goes from 46.9% Obama to 51.5%
• Lungren goes from 50.2% Obama to 52.9%
• McNerney's new seat goes from 54.7% Obama to 57.9%
• Dreier (if he stays in the SGV) goes from 52.1% Obama to 62.8%
• Baca drops from 69.3% Obama to 57.8%
• Gallegly goes from 51.4% Obama to 57.8%
• Capps goes from 66.9% Obama to 57.7%
• Bilbray (if he runs in N. San Diego) goes from 52.1% Obama to 54.8%
• Davis (if she runs in Chula Vista/National City) goes from 67.6% Obama to 64.5%