US House Redistricting: California

[redcommander]

I will be the optimist and hope the GOP picks up seats. They will need a strong game plan and excellent candidate recruitment. BTW Doesn't VRA only apply to Southern states?

[redcommander]

I will be the optimist and hope the GOP picks up seats. They will need a strong game plan and excellent candidate recruitment. BTW Doesn't VRA only apply to Southern states?

The VRA applies to certain counties in California (Monterey comes to mind, though there are others), and since the redistricting affects every county in the state, it is subject to the VRA.

Ah I see thanks for the info.

[redcommander]

Congress will be a better place without Calvert's fat corrupt ass in it in any event.

Definately. Any chance Jerry Lewis loses his seat as well?

Probably no unfortunately, unless he retires. Swing State who usually leans to the left in political analysis doesn't even see a significant PVI change to the Democrats with the independent commission.

[redcommander]

Democrats shouldn't necessarily be so confident in their chances. Even if Gallegly, Dreier, Miller, and Bilbray lose, there is a decent chance that Loretta Sanchez's district could go Republican, along with those of Harman, Capps, and the new district containing Lakewood and Paramount.

[redcommander]

Is it possible for Republicans to pick up seats in the legislature and the House? Many people keep saying that Republicans are looking at losing seats.

[redcommander]

Costa is in trouble, that is for sure. Joe Baca's seat is a lean Dem tossup. Lois Capp's district is a tossup as well. Also one of the Bay Area dems has to contest the Yuba City to Solano county district. That is pretty much a perfect tossup. Lots of Republicans are in trouble as well though. 2012 should be an interesting year.

Definitely. It's hard to believe how many incumbents are being forced to run against each other. I just hope the Republicans make enough ground to start rebuilding their bench.

[redcommander]

Can the Republicans please run a diverse list of candidates? Redistricting has given them the opportunity to add new blood to its ranks, and I'm really sick and tired of how much the Cal GOP keeps shooting themselves in the foot with minority voters.

[redcommander]

http://www.nctimes.com/news/article_6515c121-eaa2-5180-ae05-ff7fd095bcd3.html

San Diego's districts are much more cleaner now, and oddly enough Duncan Hunter will have the most Republican district in the state now. You would think that it would be one up in the High Sierras or by the Oregon border.

[redcommander]

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/07/3820183/editorial-gop-has-buyers-remorse.html

The GOP needs to either put up or shut up about redistricting. They lost in a spectacular fashion last November, they pushed for the commission, they have done a sh@ty job at diversifying their party in the state, they have bled support to the Democrats for almost a decade now, and Del Beccaro and the rest of the leadership thinks that the redistricting process was unfair? No the reason it looks unfair is that you have allowed the party to stick its head in the ground since the early 2000's, and let the Democrats build up enormous strength in the Bay Area and LA. In other news, since 1998, Republicans have failed in 200 House elections to pick up a seat from the Democrats.

http://calcoastnews.com/2011/07/california-gop-now-0-for-200-since-1998/

[redcommander]

The maps have been finalized. I don't see any major changes from when the commission first announced them.

http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/maps-final-drafts.html

[redcommander]

The Republican Party in CA is a mostly white, rural/exurban party in an urban, cosmopolitan, multicultural state. So of course it is having trouble in CA.

Yes but the candidates that have announced so far for public office in 2012 are showing that the party is diversifying.

[redcommander]

The Republican Party in CA is a mostly white, rural/exurban party in an urban, cosmopolitan, multicultural state. So of course it is having trouble in CA.

Yes but the candidates that have announced so far for public office in 2012 are showing that the party is diversifying.

Like who? (curious)

Well the State Assembly and Senate races haven't received that much publicity in terms of whose running yet, but Republicans recruited Melissa Melendez to run in the 69th assembly district in the Inland Empire, and she stands a good shot of being elected. Ricky Gill is competitive in the 9th congressional, and David Valadao is running in the 21st. Also Garamendi will face a competitive race against Colusa County Supervisor Kim Dolbow Vann if she makes it through the primary, which she seems likely of doing.

[redcommander]

Does anyone think the new 47th CD will become competitive? The commission drew it to include all of Long Beach, but it also includes the wealthy areas of Belmont, Naples, and Bixby Knolls, Los Alamitos (known for its military community), Cypress, Republican leaning parts of Garden Grove, and most of the Republican stronghold of Westminster. Plus Republicans recruited a top tier candidate in Gary DeLong who is a Long Beach Councilman.

[redcommander]

Does anyone think the new 47th CD will become competitive? The commission drew it to include all of Long Beach, but it also includes the wealthy areas of Belmont, Naples, and Bixby Knolls, Los Alamitos (known for its military community), Cypress, Republican leaning parts of Garden Grove, and most of the Republican stronghold of Westminster. Plus Republicans recruited a top tier candidate in Gary DeLong who is a Long Beach Councilman.

Mill Valley laughs at the idea that wealthy areas in California are automatically Republican.

Well Long Beach isn't exactly a Santa Monica or Brentwood, so it is reasonable to suspect that there are Republican portions of it. It's not as if the city doesn't elect Republicans, since there is at least one one the city council (DeLong like I mentioned). I know it would be difficult, but the commission did design the district it looks like to be potentially competitive. Otherwise they would have kept Long Beach in it, and added Carson or Lakewood in it, and left parts of Orange County out of it.

[redcommander]

Does anyone think the new 47th CD will become competitive? The commission drew it to include all of Long Beach, but it also includes the wealthy areas of Belmont, Naples, and Bixby Knolls, Los Alamitos (known for its military community), Cypress, Republican leaning parts of Garden Grove, and most of the Republican stronghold of Westminster. Plus Republicans recruited a top tier candidate in Gary DeLong who is a Long Beach Councilman.

Mill Valley laughs at the idea that wealthy areas in California are automatically Republican.

Well Long Beach isn't exactly a Santa Monica or Brentwood, so it is reasonable to suspect that there are Republican portions of it. It's not as if the city doesn't elect Republicans, since there is at least one one the city council (DeLong like I mentioned). I know it would be difficult, but the commission did design the district it looks like to be potentially competitive. Otherwise they would have kept Long Beach in it, and added Carson or Lakewood in it, and left parts of Orange County out of it.

The Commission should be ashamed of itself for drawing this non "communities of interest" cf, but here you go:  Dem PVI of about +6% - out of reach for the Pubbies absent unusual circumstances. I am about 18,000 residents short even though the block groups don't match the voting districts, and I spilled over the lines a bit where the voting districts were chopped, and still came up short, but it should not make much difference.

If the district was under these lines in 2004, would it have voted for Bush?

[redcommander]

Are there any other possibly competitive seats that no one has brought up yet? How blue is the new CA-36? What about CA-44? Sorry, I would look up the voting stats on the Dave's redistricting app, but my computer keeps crashing when I open the website up.

[redcommander]

A proposed petition for a referendum on the congressional plan has been filed with the AG.  If sufficient signatures are gathered, the plan would be suspended until after the next statewide election at which the referendum would be voted on, presumably at the June 2012 primary.

If the plans are suspended, then the primaries can not be used to choose the 2 candidates who advance to the general election.

Maybe they will be held as special elections in November 2012, like has been done in Texas.

I seriously hope voters yet again keep Republicans on a lifeline by defeating that initiative. Sometimes I wonder if California Republicans actually want to win elections again.

[redcommander]

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

http://elections.dailykos.com/

Rothenberg has a new analysis of possible candidates for the Dems and GOP in the California house races. Right now it's only open to subscribers though, but the Daily Kos has an outline listing of some of the candidate that Gonzales spoke about. Personally I hope Linda Parks runs in the 26th, seeing as she would bring much needed moderation to the congressional delegation if she won.