US House Redistricting: California

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CA-44 as well. Calvert barely won the Riverside county portion of his district in this wave year, and actually lost it in 2008 (when his opponent basically had no money iirc). He will likely only get the Riverside portion this time around, and that should be enough due to high population growth in that area. Calvert better hope his district follows I-15 down from Corona to Murrieta, and even that probably won't have enough population, and is much less logical than a Hwy 91 based district that takes in Riverside.

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Lungren will get a Sacramento County district. There are no Hispanic districts to be drawn there, so 2 districts will be drawn within the county, which works out almost perfectly. Lungren could still hold that district though, but it will be hard if Obama is winning in 2012 and Lungren has a well financed challenger.

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one thing that needs to be drawn is a black majority district in LA. It can be done. According to a 1978 article, it said that Augustus Hawkins represented a 59 percent black district.

While I am sure it may be possible (though it may be possible in 2010, I will guarantee you that district won't be majority Black by the next census), I doubt that it will be required. Rather Blacks will get a couple of districts where they can elect their own representatives.

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what makes you think it wouldn't be majority black by next decade? In L.A. blacks are to mexicans what Native Americans are to whites in 1870s Montana.

Black LA neighborhoods (save for the middle class/rich areas) are rapidly becoming Latino. Compton is already Latino majority and so is Inglewood according to the latest ACS estimate. But like I said, Blacks don't need a majority to elect their own leaders since Latinos vote at a much lower rate, and many aren't eligible to vote to begin with.

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Are you using the ACS numbers and thus don't have the partisan data?

Also your CA-44 is a pipe dream. It should instead take in Perris or Moreno Valley.

Also Moreno Valley is only 51% Hispanic (ACS numbers), so is it really necessary to draw that appendage?

Edit: Or are those the old districts I am looking at?(noticed you were drawing the 42nd in the same way, which won't happen either, even though it will remain a safe R district)

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What do you plan to do with Irvine? Why not put Campbell in that district and perhaps f over Gary Miller. He already lives in Diamond Bar...just draw him into an LA County district. And north OC goes to Royce obviously.

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Why not add some of Royce's western appendage into Rohrbacher's district (but no municipal splits of course), and have it take in everything up to Laguna Beach by the coast, but leave Irvine, Lake Forest and anything else to it's east you have left for Campbell's district. Then Campbell's district takes in Tustin, Orange, Villa Park and as much of the Anaheim hills as necessary to get enough population. Then the rest of OC goes to Royce, and perhaps extending into Chino Hills and even Chino depending on how much more population is needed. I definitely think the map could be drawn that way. I certainly don't see CA-40 surviving in it's current u-shaped form.

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I would keep CA-48 as you have drawn it. I would just give Campbell another district.

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Gary Miller of course! Isn't a majority of his CD within OC?

Edit: Are Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita in your new CD-48?

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Something like this might be drawn. Mind you these are not the ACS figures so it's not 100% accurate, just some ballpark figures. I wanted to draw something up quickly, and didn't want to deal with version 2.0.

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Looks reasonable actually, sbane, except I don't like that red snake thing much as a facial matter, without any other thought whatsoever.

 

Another option might be to just give it Diamond Bar and surroundings, thus requiring a primary, but it will make the district look nicer. Though the 40th as I have drawn it more or less follows the 91...except for the SBD county portions, which is what looks odd in any case.

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There is basically nothing there other than migrating illegals.

Which merge seamlessly into both the National City etc area of SD, and Imperial County, of course.
Seriously, I would not consider something somewhat like the current district "dead on arrival". A little unlikely, yes, but certainly not to be dismissed out of hand. It has problems but also a certain logic.

SD is very different from the Imperial valley though. That district may have been drawn in the past when there was no other way to draw a Hispanic district, but recently there has been large growth in the Hispanic population in SD (due to border restrictions after 9/11 I am guessing), as well as huge growth in Riverside County. Now two Hispanic districts can be drawn within those three counties, and I expect that will happen. And almost the only way to make it happen is by connecting Imperial to Riverside, or else it's basically impossible to draw a Hispanic district with enough VAP just within Riverside County.

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one idea I had was to draw a "republican depository" district in orange county. It basically takes in all of the CD 42 portion of it (except for La Habra), takes in the most republican areas of CD 40 (Villa Park, city of Orange), and the most republican areas of CD 48 (like Lake Forest). The district probably gave McCain 58 percent,and Bush around 65 percent.

Does the district look fair? And another thing to consider is how easy is it to draw other district around it, once you have also drawn in the VRA mandated district in OC as well. Those things will determine whether the commission has a chance of drawing that district.

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I doubt an Asian district will be required in the bay area, although you can certainly draw it. They don't vote that different from anglos or hispanics.

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I doubt an Asian district will be required in the bay area, although you can certainly draw it. They don't vote that different from anglos or hispanics.

The issue is whether the commission will want to draw it, and whether the commission hears testimony from Asians who want the CD drawn, and not from Asians who do not. It will be hard to deny Asians their percentage share of CD's (2 or 3), if they push for it.

But why would they push for it, and even if they did, would the commission take them seriously? Two Asians already serve in congress from California, and they didn't need Asian districts to get there. Perhaps Chu could get a primary challenge in her district, but Honda needs no protection at all. Racial gerrymandering in the Bay Area is pointless.

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How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

I dont think there is enough population up north in the Mohave desert for a district, not to mention a Hispanic district. A better way to draw the map would be to give perris to ca-45 and save "mo vall" for ca 44. It looks cleaner and perris is even less of a la suburb than the brown valley.

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How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

I dont think there is enough population up north in the Mohave desert for a district, not to mention a Hispanic district. A better way to draw the map would be to give perris to ca-45 and save "mo vall" for ca 44. It looks cleaner and perris is even less of a la suburb than the brown valley.

That assumes CA-44 is going to be an Hispanic CD. Maybe. Perris has far fewer people than the Moreno Valley. Still a switch out might make sense. We shall see. CA-45 can't really go much less Hispanic, without it become a chimera, given all those illegals. And the thing about the Moreno Valley, is that probably most of the Hispanics there are legal - it is in general lower middle class territory. 

CA-44 won't be Hispanic majority if it consists of Corona, Norco, Riverside, Moreno Valley and the unincorporated northwest part of Riverside County. Though it would be something like 45-48% Hispanic, so perhaps two IE Hispanic districts will be drawn, with one consisting of a mix of Riverside and SBD County.

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I think it might be better to give Napa County to the north coast district and give Glenn, Colusa, Tehama, Lassen and Modoc Counties to the north valley district. Or give Lassen and Modoc to the mountain district, and try to equalize population in the valley.

Just drew it. The north valley district lacks just 6,000 people, which it can get by dipping into some farmland or small town in a neighboring county.

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This is how I think the north will be drawn. Napa County is more similar to the coastal areas than it is to the central valley. Makes sense to include it in this district. The only area in the district that might not fit in is Redding, but one thing about Redding is that there is not much farming close to the city. You have to go south of Red Bluff before you really see a lot of farm areas. In that sense the 2nd as I have drawn it preserves that community of interest. The only area that doesn't fit into that district would be parts of Yolo County. But even that County has a lot of areas that are similar to the rest of the district. And Yolo County is certainly considered a part of the Central Valley, something that is not true of Napa County.

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A district from San Francisco would only need to pick up about 25,000 people from Marin. Sausalito, Tiburon and Marin City would be the only Marin cities in that district.

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A neater solution might put American Canyon (which really belongs with Vallejo anyway) in with whatever district Solano County goes in while taking some parts of northern Sonoma County in CA-01.

Yeah, that's probably better than crossing the Golden Gate.

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You have to consider how surrounding counties will be affected, too. Most notably, Marin and Sonoma Counties are more than one district together but are isolated from the rest of the state by your map. (I seriously doubt they would be connected across bridges to SF or Richmond.)

But not very much (legislative district close).  

Solano and Contra Costa together have enough for about 2 districts, a little more.  I'd probably start in the east of Contra Costa, and then include a narrow connector to get to the bridges to Vallejo.  The whole district in Contra Costa might be kind of ugly going from Richmond inland.  And they might ignore counties at the point, so you could have two districts crossing between Alameda and Contra Costa.

There are two options with the Solano district. Either give the inland areas of Contra Costa County along Hwy 4 to it or continue along I-80 to the Alameda county line. It would also need to take in Martinez to get enough population if you continue down I-80.

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A district from San Francisco would only need to pick up about 25,000 people from Marin. Sausalito, Tiburon and Marin City would be the only Marin cities in that district.

That might work.  I had originally not considered going across the Golden Gate, because most of the population in Marin is further north, in the San Rafael area.  My thinking was that the only population near the bridge is in Sausalito and Tiburon and the like.

Sausalito, Tiburon and Marin City would be enough. Another way is to split Sonoma County and give enough of the rural areas to CD-1 to make a district fit in Sonoma and Marin. I don't know which is more likely.

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Healdsburg also. That area is mostly agricultural.

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What is the Hispanic % in Ca-47?