US House Redistricting: California

[Хahar 🤔]

I will be the optimist and hope the GOP picks up seats. They will need a strong game plan and excellent candidate recruitment. BTW Doesn't VRA only apply to Southern states?

The VRA applies to certain counties in California (Monterey comes to mind, though there are others), and since the redistricting affects every county in the state, it is subject to the VRA.

[Хahar 🤔]

Anyone agree Lungren is probably done?

I'd say it's more likely than not that he's bounced, particularly in a presidential year.

[Хahar 🤔]

If you start in the Bay Area, this is what I get:



I think these districts make a lot of sense - obviously you have the SF district, then a blue-collar(-ish) peninsula district in cyan (41% white, 31% Asian, 21% Hispanic).  Next I drew the blue-gray district to be 55% Asian.  Fitting nicely around that is the pink district, which takes the heart of Silicon Valley from Menlo Park to Santa Clara and Los Gatos - very wealthy (other than East Palo Alto), 54% white, 22% Asian, 17% Hispanic.  The light green district takes in what's left of Santa Clara County, which essentially is all of the heavily Hispanic parts, plus some extras - not enough for a majority, but it's 41% Hispanic, 35% white, 19% Asian.  The coastal tan district goes down to Monterrey & Big Sur - it makes a lot of sense to stick Half Moon Bay in there rather than stick other parts of Santa Clara county in with a Central Valley district.  

The yellow district connects as much of the minority areas as possible in the East Bay without being ridiculous: 30 white 22 black  20 Asian 24 Hispanic. One East Bay district has to go inland, due to the numbers, so I made it the teal one.  

I don't think that an Asian district that stretches from Cupertino to Hayward is more reasonable than a number of roughly 30% Asian districts that are more geographically compact. Certainly Asians have no trouble getting elected.

[Хahar 🤔]

A neater solution might put American Canyon (which really belongs with Vallejo anyway) in with whatever district Solano County goes in while taking some parts of northern Sonoma County in CA-01.

Yeah, that's probably better than crossing the Golden Gate.

Mark Leno's district crosses the Golden Gate. It's not a mortal sin.

[Хahar 🤔]

The more rural parts of Sonoma don't belong into any district but the first by any measure, really.

You mean north of Santa Rosa? How many live there?

Not many. Those areas are much more similar to Mendocino than to the Bay Area.

[Хahar 🤔]

Keep in mind that my southeast quadrant includes Irvine, which is surprisingly willing to vote democratic.

UC Irvine

[Хahar 🤔]

If anyone has racial data, it would be nice to see. That district that stretches from Fremont to Cupertino (in which I live, just barely) looks like an Asian-plurality seat to me. I didn't think they would draw it like that. It is worth noting that that district is remarkably compact; despite being entirely suburban, it's not that much larger than Pelosi's district.

[Хahar 🤔]

In a Republican Wave Year Garamendi is toast.

One might have said the same thing about McNerney, but he held his seat in 2010.