Long term Presidential election trends (and other stuff)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:26:57 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Long term Presidential election trends (and other stuff)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Long term Presidential election trends (and other stuff)  (Read 19038 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: December 02, 2010, 04:50:12 AM »

Indeed, the trends we see there are quite interesting. Maine is really kind of surprising, Muskie must have been really popular there. Also, more generally, it seems that Humphrey improved Kennedy's whowing in traditionally Dem States of the Northeast, while the swing States like CT and NJ were more favorable to Nixon.
Otherwise, Nixon's gains in the South are considerable : Humprey got crushed there and Nixon took the second place after Wallace. Maybe LBJ helped Kennedy there in 1960 ? But then what about Texas, the only Southern State to go dem ?Humphrey improved his standing from Kennedy in Rust Belt States (not surprising considering his populist lean), while Nixon won the West by far higher margins (except for SD Huh). Also, Hawaii looks impressive.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2011, 03:39:28 AM »

Bump.
Let me know if there's any map you'd be interested in seeing. Smiley
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: March 31, 2011, 01:47:43 PM »

*coughcough*

The proposal is still valid.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: July 17, 2011, 01:48:38 PM »

Reviving this ! Smiley I don't know if there are people interested, but these maps are always fun to do. Grin

Here's 1972-2008 :




Remember that, if there is any map you'd like to see, you can still ask me and I'll do it.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2011, 05:54:21 AM »

Just for my information, is there someone still following this ?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: July 20, 2011, 01:41:37 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2011, 01:43:56 PM by Senator Antonio V »

Ok... So, there is, literally, a person who's following this thread. Tongue Well, that's enough for me. Grin

1976-1992 (ie the Southern matchup, Carter vs Clinton) :



No doubt, Clinton's performance in the South was rather pathetic if compared with his predecessor... Even Arkansas is 16 points down ! Shocked
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: July 20, 2011, 09:11:56 PM »

Comparing Catholics might be interesting ('28 to '60, '60 to '04, maybe '28 to '04).
Logged
Mechaman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,791
Jamaica
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: July 20, 2011, 09:27:11 PM »

Comparing Catholics might be interesting ('28 to '60, '60 to '04, maybe '28 to '04).

Ya think?

(statement of agreement)
Logged
Dereich
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,892


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 20, 2011, 09:57:10 PM »

This is wonderful, thanks for all the effort you're putting in. Also, while agreeing with the Catholic suggestion, I'd be interested to see the trend of 1928-1952, the maps look pretty similar but the Roosevelt era must have left SOME kind of interesting trend.
Logged
Mechaman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,791
Jamaica
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 20, 2011, 10:15:45 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2011, 12:04:46 AM by Randle Patrick McMurphy »

This is wonderful, thanks for all the effort you're putting in. Also, while agreeing with the Catholic suggestion, I'd be interested to see the trend of 1928-1952, the maps look pretty similar but the Roosevelt era must have left SOME kind of interesting trend.

First off welcome!
Second, again "ya think?"

The New Deal completely changed the Electoral game!
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: July 21, 2011, 07:54:25 AM »

Ask and you shall receive ! Smiley Here is 1928-1960 :

Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 21, 2011, 08:25:33 AM »

Basically, Kennedy beats Smith in the Rust Belt and the West Coast, but (quite amazingly) a lot of Northeastern States (NY, CT, even VT !) prefered Smith. Same in the Midwest and in the West. As for the South, it's rather obvious.
Logged
Devilman88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: July 22, 2011, 09:50:42 AM »

Clinton vs Obama map
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: July 22, 2011, 09:57:43 AM »

Already done. Smiley


Alright, let's go further with 1992-2008 :


Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: August 02, 2011, 10:43:15 PM »

Hi everyone ! Smiley

After a pretty long work, I have collected a considerable amount of data regarding State-by-State margins of victory in Presidential election since 1932, and these data can have a lot of applications. One of them is particularly interesting, enough to justify this thread.
Having all the swing/trend data of each election since 1928-1932, I can easily calculate long-term trends from any election to any other one. So, here, you will be able to see maps like those on the Atlas forum, but instead of being 4-year trend maps, they could be 8, 12, 20 or 80 years trend maps !

On this thread, I will post several trend maps for interesting periods (note that I will discover the results only after calculating it, so I will be able to react to them simultaneously to you). But also, I will be able to satisfy any request for a long-term trend map. Just ask me from which election to which election you want to see the trends, and I will be able to post you the corresponding map extremely soon. I hope you will enjoy it ! Cheesy

A somewhat different request: could you post line graphs of PVIs/relative margins of victory of each state? Basically, the relative electoral history tables in line graph form. It would assist greatly in any trend discussions, since we could see at a glance where a state has trended in recent elections. If you're up to it, it'd also be cool to see what the correlation between trends in successive elections are - in essence, "do trends continue?"
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2011, 09:20:59 AM »

That's a great idea, Nichelm ! Smiley Here are a few ones to begin with :



















Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2011, 11:27:05 AM »

Smiley Thanks!

Looking at the sharp swings in the graphs, it seems like a moving average would help determine medium term trends better.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: August 04, 2011, 03:54:27 AM »

OK, I'll do that next time. Smiley

Still, we already see a lot IMO : solid democratic trends in CA, VT, and IL since the 1980s (Illinois especially, it has continuouly trended dem since 1976 !!). Minnesota is one of the most solid democratic States from 1968 to 1992, and since then the margin is closening. WV is steadily trending republican since 1988. Democrats have considerably improved their showing in Florida since the 1980s. Colorado was also quite stunning : before 2008, it has never been more than 1 point over the national margin, and only 2 times (1948 and 1964). At the same time, it wasn't extremely solid for republicans except a few years. It also looks democrats have a long way to go in Texas before becoming as competitive as they were once. And Mississippi is... well, just Mississippi. Tongue
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: August 04, 2011, 04:38:10 AM »

Although I think the jaggedness does highlight a key point in showing how meaningless trends over a handful of elections can be. If you cherrypick a 1996 starting point, for instance, it looks like CO has been trending significantly Dem, but it's made those sorts of swings several times before in the last 80 years. Yet, a lot of people seem to think it implies that CO almost certainly will be a Dem-leaning state for a long time.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: August 04, 2011, 01:57:45 PM »

OK, here are 10 more ! Smiley I used a moving average of 4, I hope that's fine.



















Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: August 06, 2011, 10:25:42 AM »

Comments ?

Should I do more, are you interested in some States in particular ?
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: August 06, 2011, 11:53:00 AM »

Good work! Smiley Virginia is interesting, there seems to be myth that it has gone from "Solid R" to "swing" recently, but looking at the graph there's not much change, with VA being about the same as it was in the 80s.

Indiana and North Carolina are other two Obama pick-up states where there seems to be a similar story. Nevada and Colorado are two Obama pick-up states where there has been a sharp trend since the 80s, although Nevada in particular used to be much more Democratic during Roosevelt's tenure.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: August 06, 2011, 01:38:46 PM »

Good work! Smiley Virginia is interesting, there seems to be myth that it has gone from "Solid R" to "swing" recently, but looking at the graph there's not much change, with VA being about the same as it was in the 80s.

Let's be fair here. If we exclude Carter's years, Virginia has been a fairly republican State since the 1960s, and the dem trend started after 1996 is pretty outstanding. Even if we count Carter, Obama actually beat him in 2008 ! Quite a performance if you compare with the trends in places like Arkansas or West Virginia...


Here the States you asked for. Smiley







As you said, the trend in Indiana and NC seem pretty volatile and don't allow us to draw clear conclusions. Nevada on the other hand shows a pretty clear dem trend.


For my own amusement, here are DC and Washington.



Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,401
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: August 06, 2011, 03:11:39 PM »

What exactly do the numbers refer to?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: August 06, 2011, 03:27:44 PM »


The democratic margin of victory in the State minus the national margin of victory. For example, Obama won DC by 85.92 points and the country by 7.26 points, thus the index is 78.66.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.099 seconds with 11 queries.