VA-PPP: Obama (D) easily defeats all Republicans

[Skill and Chance]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

but it's still odd considering the GOP picked up congressional seats and elected McDonnell in 2009 and like them

Obama was already winning VA by a substantial margin before the 2nd and 5th districts became competitive.  He doesn't need those voters to win the state.  The fact that Connolly survived 2010 is enough to indicate that he still has his base in the state.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, of course MA and MD are too solid to be of much interest in judging where things are going

True in an absolute sense but I wonder if relative performance matters. Or how it would be measured. NH has a strong economy like Mass. and swung hard to the Republicans.

You can still see this effect somewhat even in the solidly partisan states.  In MD, O'Malley gained several points over his 2006 performance against the same opponent, and in MA, Patrick performed better than what was expected for him.

[Skill and Chance]

The GOP can lose with Virginia, but it can't win without it.

Flip PA, FL, and OH (which all have economic disasters on their hands relative to VA) and it all comed down to CO and NV, which are not strong D states by any means.  Now if Obama has VA, CO, and NV all locked up going into the fall of 2012, it probably is over.

[Skill and Chance]

I have a hard time believing this poll given recent gubernatorial and congressional results in the state in question.  We'll see.

Again, the districts the Dems lost in VA are all superfluous relative to what it would take for Obama to carry the state in 2012.  It is possible that this poll is way off, but there is no inherent inconsistency between Republican congressmen winning VA-05, VA-02, and VA-09 and Obama simultaneously carrying the state.  All are gerrymandered Republican districts, and Boucher's loss reflects a decline in split ticket voting in areas that were never going to vote for Obama in a million years.  There are a lot of Democratic voters packed into the NOVA districts that are a lot more enamoured with Bob McDonnell than Huckabee or Palin.

[Skill and Chance]

The top line numbers tell a terrible story for the top tier Republican duds.  The apporval numbers tell a true horror story for the party.  None of the top tier guys is well liked.  If any of them win, Obama wins the general in a cake walk.

The Republicans must go to the next group of candidates.  Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Newt are toxic.  It's time to consider McDonnell, Christie, Thune, Barbour, Daniels, Jeb, and even Huntsman.  The 2010 elections told us voter want new faces, not the 2008 crap.

Personally, I think Jeb wins the general quite easily if he runs.  I know the case for Bush fatigue or the dynasty, but I believe he wins easily.  I think Barbour COULD win due to his fund raising ability and his political skills.  I don't know if he plays well west of the Mississippi though.  I also think Thune COULD win, but I don't know if he can raise the money.  If he can beat Daschle, who knows.

It could just be that VA as a state is trending to the left.  There are other swing states that are trending to the right that the GOP could use to cancel out their difficulties in VA and CO/NV.  OH and FL come to mind.

[Skill and Chance]

I have a real hard time believing Obama's approval rating could be 50%.

In the Congressional elections, GOP candidates got total around 54% of the vote to Democrats 42%. And that is with the losses of Nye and Boucher, two of the most fiscally conservative Democrats in the House who would barely admit to being Democrats, and Connolly narrowly winning by opposing Obama on taxes.

All of the congressional districts that changed hands are to the right of the state as a whole.  I think that is important to remember before drawing too many conclusions from this month's elections.  I do agree that Obama at 50% is suspect, but he doesn't need a majority in any of those districts to win the state.

[Skill and Chance]

I have a real hard time believing Obama's approval rating could be 50%.

In the Congressional elections, GOP candidates got total around 54% of the vote to Democrats 42%. And that is with the losses of Nye and Boucher, two of the most fiscally conservative Democrats in the House who would barely admit to being Democrats, and Connolly narrowly winning by opposing Obama on taxes.

All of the congressional districts that changed hands are to the right of the state as a whole.  I think that is important to remember before drawing too many conclusions from this month's elections.  I do agree that Obama at 50% is suspect, but he doesn't need a majority in any of those districts to win the state.

sure, the 9th is substantially to the right, the 2nd and 5th are slightly to the right. the 11th, which almost switched hands, is slightly to the left. my point in bringing up the Congressional races was that, when you total up every vote from every district and split them by party, the Republicans had a 12-point lead - which suggests something significant in terms of public opinion in Virginia even with a district set-up that benefits the GOP.

Neither of the overwhelmingly Democratic districts had serious opponents, and a one of the GOP districts didn't either.  I don't think the statewide two-party vote means much in this context.  If I were an R apologist, I could point to Nye's 10 point loss in an R+5 district or Boucher's unexpected fall.  If I were a D apologist, I could point to Perriello's less than 4 point loss in an R+5 district.   Connolly's district is only D+2 so the fact that he survived without any special factors in his favor argues against a GOP blowout.

There is also a good bit of evidence that VA may particularly like Obama relative to generic Democratic politicians.

[Skill and Chance]

sure, the 9th is substantially to the right, the 2nd and 5th are slightly to the right. the 11th, which almost switched hands, is slightly to the left. my point in bringing up the Congressional races was that, when you total up every vote from every district and split them by party, the Republicans had a 12-point lead - which suggests something significant in terms of public opinion in Virginia even with a district set-up that benefits the GOP.

Were any races uncontested by either party or effectively uncontested by sacrificial lambs?

Yes, both the southside VRA district and the D+16 NOVA district had sacrificial lambs, and the R+16 Shenandoah Valley district had no Democratic opponent at all.