VA-PPP: Obama (D) easily defeats all Republicans

[Brittain33]

It's shocking that he's ahead of Republicans at all in Virginia.

[Brittain33]

Yet we're leading in Washington. Uh huh.

Who leads in Washington, "Generic Republican" or actual candidates?

Not saying I believe this poll, but that is the most salient distinction between it and the others we saw.

[Brittain33]

"Generic Republican" still wouldn't even be leading there which is why I doubt these polls (not that it matters now anyway).

Looking at the House races in Washington (particularly the narrow D wins in WA-2 and WA-9) and the Senate race this month, I think it would be fair to say that "Generic Republican" would have defeated "Democratic incumbent" by 1 point or more. I believe Rossi ran behind Generic Republican, as almost any candidate would.

My hopes for Obama depend on the national mood changing between now and November 2012, and not for the worse for Dems. Secondarily on the quality of the Republican candidate, it already looks like there's not going to be someone super-charismatic or accomplished running on that side.

[Brittain33]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

but it's still odd considering the GOP picked up congressional seats and elected McDonnell in 2009 and like them

Yes, the only way this makes sense to me is that the electorate they're sampling is much more like '08 than '10 (and even then, the sample may be too Democratic) AND these particular four Republican candidates are viewed as old news with at least moderate negatives because of '08 battles or, with Gingrich, all of his baggage. I happily chalk this up to wishful thinking until other polls show similar results.  

[Brittain33]

Someone on SSP said the sample is 55% women. pbbbbbblt.

[Brittain33]

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.

I had that thought, too. Outside of states with good economies because they have a) grain b) oil, or c) both (hi, ND), it's the states with the highest levels of educational attainment that are weathering the recession best. We'd expect to see similar leans in Colorado, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maryland.

[Brittain33]

Well, of course MA and MD are too solid to be of much interest in judging where things are going

True in an absolute sense but I wonder if relative performance matters. Or how it would be measured. NH has a strong economy like Mass. and swung hard to the Republicans.

[Brittain33]

sure, the 9th is substantially to the right, the 2nd and 5th are slightly to the right. the 11th, which almost switched hands, is slightly to the left. my point in bringing up the Congressional races was that, when you total up every vote from every district and split them by party, the Republicans had a 12-point lead - which suggests something significant in terms of public opinion in Virginia even with a district set-up that benefits the GOP.

Were any races uncontested by either party or effectively uncontested by sacrificial lambs?