VA-PPP: Obama (D) easily defeats all Republicans
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  VA-PPP: Obama (D) easily defeats all Republicans
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Author Topic: VA-PPP: Obama (D) easily defeats all Republicans  (Read 11365 times)
opebo
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« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2010, 04:46:50 PM »

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.

I had that thought, too. Outside of states with good economies because they have a) grain b) oil, or c) both (hi, ND), it's the states with the highest levels of educational attainment that are weathering the recession best. We'd expect to see similar leans in Colorado, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maryland.

Well, of course MA and MD are too solid to be of much interest in judging where things are going, but we did just see Colorado turn in some surprisingly Democratic-friendly results in the recent election.

Actually according to this map Colorado and Virginia aren't in that great a shape, but I guess its all relative:

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Brittain33
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« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2010, 05:02:37 PM »

Well, of course MA and MD are too solid to be of much interest in judging where things are going

True in an absolute sense but I wonder if relative performance matters. Or how it would be measured. NH has a strong economy like Mass. and swung hard to the Republicans.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2010, 05:04:54 PM »

The GOP can lose with Virginia, but it can't win without it.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2010, 05:06:10 PM »

Well, of course MA and MD are too solid to be of much interest in judging where things are going

True in an absolute sense but I wonder if relative performance matters. Or how it would be measured. NH has a strong economy like Mass. and swung hard to the Republicans.

You can still see this effect somewhat even in the solidly partisan states.  In MD, O'Malley gained several points over his 2006 performance against the same opponent, and in MA, Patrick performed better than what was expected for him.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2010, 05:08:54 PM »

The GOP can lose with Virginia, but it can't win without it.

Flip PA, FL, and OH (which all have economic disasters on their hands relative to VA) and it all comed down to CO and NV, which are not strong D states by any means.  Now if Obama has VA, CO, and NV all locked up going into the fall of 2012, it probably is over.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2010, 05:42:15 PM »

The GOP can lose with Virginia, but it can't win without it.

Flip PA, FL, and OH (which all have economic disasters on their hands relative to VA) and it all comed down to CO and NV, which are not strong D states by any means.  Now if Obama has VA, CO, and NV all locked up going into the fall of 2012, it probably is over.

Watch approval polls for Senator Pat Toomey throughout 2011,  as such should show how popular "Generic Republican" is in Pennsylvania. He is as pure a corporatist as anyone can be.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #31 on: November 16, 2010, 05:47:28 PM »

I have a hard time believing this poll given recent gubernatorial and congressional results in the state in question.  We'll see.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #32 on: November 16, 2010, 06:00:16 PM »

I have a hard time believing this poll given recent gubernatorial and congressional results in the state in question.  We'll see.

Again, the districts the Dems lost in VA are all superfluous relative to what it would take for Obama to carry the state in 2012.  It is possible that this poll is way off, but there is no inherent inconsistency between Republican congressmen winning VA-05, VA-02, and VA-09 and Obama simultaneously carrying the state.  All are gerrymandered Republican districts, and Boucher's loss reflects a decline in split ticket voting in areas that were never going to vote for Obama in a million years.  There are a lot of Democratic voters packed into the NOVA districts that are a lot more enamoured with Bob McDonnell than Huckabee or Palin.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #33 on: November 16, 2010, 06:06:19 PM »

The top line numbers tell a terrible story for the top tier Republican duds.  The apporval numbers tell a true horror story for the party.  None of the top tier guys is well liked.  If any of them win, Obama wins the general in a cake walk.

The Republicans must go to the next group of candidates.  Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Newt are toxic.  It's time to consider McDonnell, Christie, Thune, Barbour, Daniels, Jeb, and even Huntsman.  The 2010 elections told us voter want new faces, not the 2008 crap.

Personally, I think Jeb wins the general quite easily if he runs.  I know the case for Bush fatigue or the dynasty, but I believe he wins easily.  I think Barbour COULD win due to his fund raising ability and his political skills.  I don't know if he plays well west of the Mississippi though.  I also think Thune COULD win, but I don't know if he can raise the money.  If he can beat Daschle, who knows.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #34 on: November 16, 2010, 06:09:06 PM »

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.

Plus, as some people have already stated, it isn't actually a GB poll.  
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2010, 06:10:53 PM »

The top line numbers tell a terrible story for the top tier Republican duds.  The apporval numbers tell a true horror story for the party.  None of the top tier guys is well liked.  If any of them win, Obama wins the general in a cake walk.

The Republicans must go to the next group of candidates.  Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Newt are toxic.  It's time to consider McDonnell, Christie, Thune, Barbour, Daniels, Jeb, and even Huntsman.  The 2010 elections told us voter want new faces, not the 2008 crap.

Personally, I think Jeb wins the general quite easily if he runs.  I know the case for Bush fatigue or the dynasty, but I believe he wins easily.  I think Barbour COULD win due to his fund raising ability and his political skills.  I don't know if he plays well west of the Mississippi though.  I also think Thune COULD win, but I don't know if he can raise the money.  If he can beat Daschle, who knows.

It could just be that VA as a state is trending to the left.  There are other swing states that are trending to the right that the GOP could use to cancel out their difficulties in VA and CO/NV.  OH and FL come to mind.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #36 on: November 16, 2010, 06:13:23 PM »

Yet we're leading in Washington. Uh huh.

Who leads in Washington, "Generic Republican" or actual candidates?

Not saying I believe this poll, but that is the most salient distinction between it and the others we saw.

This poll uses a different voter screen as well.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #37 on: November 16, 2010, 06:13:39 PM »

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.

I had that thought, too. Outside of states with good economies because they have a) grain b) oil, or c) both (hi, ND), it's the states with the highest levels of educational attainment that are weathering the recession best. We'd expect to see similar leans in Colorado, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maryland.

Well, of course MA and MD are too solid to be of much interest in judging where things are going, but we did just see Colorado turn in some surprisingly Democratic-friendly results in the recent election.

Actually according to this map Colorado and Virginia aren't in that great a shape, but I guess its all relative:



North Dakota    lol
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change08
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« Reply #38 on: November 16, 2010, 06:59:33 PM »

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.

I had that thought, too. Outside of states with good economies because they have a) grain b) oil, or c) both (hi, ND), it's the states with the highest levels of educational attainment that are weathering the recession best. We'd expect to see similar leans in Colorado, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maryland.

Well, of course MA and MD are too solid to be of much interest in judging where things are going, but we did just see Colorado turn in some surprisingly Democratic-friendly results in the recent election.

Actually according to this map Colorado and Virginia aren't in that great a shape, but I guess its all relative:



North Dakota    lol

That's why Hoeven's just been elected in what may as well have been unopposed circumstances.
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Dgov
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« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2010, 07:10:23 PM »

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.
it's the states with the highest levels of educational attainment that are weathering the recession best.

i think it has more to do with proximity to Washington D.C.  There's no region of the country that has done as well as the Capitol.

Also, 95% Support amoung Virginia Democrats?  I don't think he got level of support NATIONWIDE in 2008, let alone in a Southern state like Virginia.  How many cross-over voters did McDonnel get in 2009?
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2010, 07:22:00 PM »

Yeah, I couldn't see Obama getting 95% of Vermont Democrats.  That's a little suspect.
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shua
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« Reply #41 on: November 16, 2010, 10:23:38 PM »

I have a real hard time believing Obama's approval rating could be 50%.

In the Congressional elections, GOP candidates got total around 54% of the vote to Democrats 42%. And that is with the losses of Nye and Boucher, two of the most fiscally conservative Democrats in the House who would barely admit to being Democrats, and Connolly narrowly winning by opposing Obama on taxes.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #42 on: November 16, 2010, 10:27:35 PM »

I have a real hard time believing Obama's approval rating could be 50%.

In the Congressional elections, GOP candidates got total around 54% of the vote to Democrats 42%. And that is with the losses of Nye and Boucher, two of the most fiscally conservative Democrats in the House who would barely admit to being Democrats, and Connolly narrowly winning by opposing Obama on taxes.

All of the congressional districts that changed hands are to the right of the state as a whole.  I think that is important to remember before drawing too many conclusions from this month's elections.  I do agree that Obama at 50% is suspect, but he doesn't need a majority in any of those districts to win the state.
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shua
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« Reply #43 on: November 16, 2010, 10:48:00 PM »

I have a real hard time believing Obama's approval rating could be 50%.

In the Congressional elections, GOP candidates got total around 54% of the vote to Democrats 42%. And that is with the losses of Nye and Boucher, two of the most fiscally conservative Democrats in the House who would barely admit to being Democrats, and Connolly narrowly winning by opposing Obama on taxes.

All of the congressional districts that changed hands are to the right of the state as a whole.  I think that is important to remember before drawing too many conclusions from this month's elections.  I do agree that Obama at 50% is suspect, but he doesn't need a majority in any of those districts to win the state.

sure, the 9th is substantially to the right, the 2nd and 5th are slightly to the right. the 11th, which almost switched hands, is slightly to the left. my point in bringing up the Congressional races was that, when you total up every vote from every district and split them by party, the Republicans had a 12-point lead - which suggests something significant in terms of public opinion in Virginia even with a district set-up that benefits the GOP.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #44 on: November 16, 2010, 10:51:47 PM »

As usually, I don't think crosstabs, since PPP doesn't really use a voter screen.

There were no statewide races in Virginia this year, so we can't properly gauge what really is up here. The statewide electorate in Virginia could definitely be more favorable to Obama. The composite congressional race number reflects the enthusiasm gap, in 2012, it's another ball game. The state isn't as Republican as it used to be.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #45 on: November 16, 2010, 11:03:58 PM »

I have a real hard time believing Obama's approval rating could be 50%.

In the Congressional elections, GOP candidates got total around 54% of the vote to Democrats 42%. And that is with the losses of Nye and Boucher, two of the most fiscally conservative Democrats in the House who would barely admit to being Democrats, and Connolly narrowly winning by opposing Obama on taxes.

All of the congressional districts that changed hands are to the right of the state as a whole.  I think that is important to remember before drawing too many conclusions from this month's elections.  I do agree that Obama at 50% is suspect, but he doesn't need a majority in any of those districts to win the state.

sure, the 9th is substantially to the right, the 2nd and 5th are slightly to the right. the 11th, which almost switched hands, is slightly to the left. my point in bringing up the Congressional races was that, when you total up every vote from every district and split them by party, the Republicans had a 12-point lead - which suggests something significant in terms of public opinion in Virginia even with a district set-up that benefits the GOP.

Neither of the overwhelmingly Democratic districts had serious opponents, and a one of the GOP districts didn't either.  I don't think the statewide two-party vote means much in this context.  If I were an R apologist, I could point to Nye's 10 point loss in an R+5 district or Boucher's unexpected fall.  If I were a D apologist, I could point to Perriello's less than 4 point loss in an R+5 district.   Connolly's district is only D+2 so the fact that he survived without any special factors in his favor argues against a GOP blowout.

There is also a good bit of evidence that VA may particularly like Obama relative to generic Democratic politicians.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #46 on: November 17, 2010, 04:28:49 AM »

Or quite frankly, the poll is wrong:

SurveyUSA has him at 44/54 from a poll taken of adults in December 2009.

Given that it's unlikely that he has improved anywhere in the country since then, PPP may have missed.

SurveyUSA has had a better run that PPP in both election cycles

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=160c2abe-62b7-457a-85cd-dede0055e407

Who are the 2-3% of Republicans who vote for Obama over Romney, Huckabee but vote for Palin or at least go to undecided?  Are these the mainstream Paulbot Republicans (there is some suggestion from Romney supporters that taking Paul out of polling helps Palin).
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Guderian
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« Reply #47 on: November 17, 2010, 05:13:28 AM »

No matter how precise this poll is, it still tells you that the current GOP frontrunners are damaged goods, some of them hopelessly.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #48 on: November 17, 2010, 06:53:11 AM »


SurveyUSA has had a better run that PPP in both election cycles


LOL!

You mean like when they showed Periello losing by 30 points?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #49 on: November 17, 2010, 09:07:15 AM »

sure, the 9th is substantially to the right, the 2nd and 5th are slightly to the right. the 11th, which almost switched hands, is slightly to the left. my point in bringing up the Congressional races was that, when you total up every vote from every district and split them by party, the Republicans had a 12-point lead - which suggests something significant in terms of public opinion in Virginia even with a district set-up that benefits the GOP.

Were any races uncontested by either party or effectively uncontested by sacrificial lambs?
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