PPP: Palin leads ME, TX, WV, WI; Romney leads FL; Pawlenty leads MN

[Bull Moose Base]

I know a lot of Democrats are rooting for her in the belief she's the easiest to beat but that's a bit of a dangerous game.  Obama's approval as it now stands leaves Huckabee and Romney competitive and Palin less so, but if it drops in 2 years, she could be competitive too.  I think Obama polled the weakest head-to-head vs McCain among himself, Clinton and Edwards but as the summer went on the more clear it became that any Democrat was going to win.  Similarly, Palin could find a path to the presidency, even if she's weaker head-to-head than those others.

Conversely, if Obama's approvals tick up comfortably over 50 and he beats everyone head-to-head, Republican voters might want a statement nominee, moderates enthusiasm may drop and the establishment could even be content to sacrifice Palin in a sure loss general.

These polls are a bit of turning point for her.  I honestly thought she'd be damaged after the midterms.  She's tied to a couple losers, Rove and the establishment have been taking swipes at her etc.  I did think it would deflate her yet PPP comes out of the midterms with good marks and this is the first batch of polls I recall with so many Palin leads and Romney flagging like that.  I'm curious where those Huckabee voters break if he declines to run.  Are they social cons that just prefer him to her but would take her if he's out?  Stop Palin voters who just like him the best of the non-Palins and will drift to someone else, even Romney?  If he endorsed Pawlenty or Daniels before Iowa would they take his recommendation?

I also think the more polls like this- obviously- the more likely she is to run.  And if she does, I think it makes the road massively harder for people like Thune who would depend on the force of a vacuum that would be less likely to be there with her running.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm a conservative in every sense of the word and Palin scares me to death.  Fairly or unfairly, she has become a caricature of herself.  There is nothing she can do to turn that view around.  She is just too polarizing, even among many Republicans.

Right now, these poll numbers are more about popularity than anything else.  As the race comes into focus for primary voters, she will drop because there is no "there" there with her.  She just offers canned conservative phrases.

If I were Romney, I would be devastated by these numbers.  His message didn't sell two years ago and it appears he has been forgotten.  It's not as if he's been a shrinking violet either.  I still think he's the favorite, but I would be worried about wasting more of my fortune if I were him.

What these numbers do tell me are two things.  First, Obama will be very beatable in 2012.  That doesn't mean he will lose, but it's certainly possible.  Second, there is no clear choice for Republicans in a field of also-rans.  In my view, this makes a Jeb Bush run that much more possible as he could swoop in and become the consensus candidate in short order.

Nah.  What's the basis for thinking this is just favorability?  Presumably, if someone being polled liked Palin but didn't want her for president, they'd be go with another of the many choices they were read.  And it's not as if Palin is unknown.  She's very well known so people understand full well who she is.  They know what is there.  And she is winning in a bunch of states.  Maybe it should be your party that scares you and not just Palin.