U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[minionofmidas]

If anyone has looked at the Republican's map yet, they should post it.  It looks much more fair and less gerrymandered than the one that Democrats passed.  Post it if you can find it.

Well duh. That's because it's a pointless PR exercise, not a serious proposal. These things come in two shapes - fair but somewhat sloppily drawn; or the original map minus the disgusting stuff, but sloppily drawn. Both parties do that.

[BigSkyBob]

If anyone has looked at the Republican's map yet, they should post it.  It looks much more fair and less gerrymandered than the one that Democrats passed.  Post it if you can find it.

You can find a copy of the map here:

http://mchenrycountyblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/GOP-Cong-Map-Proposed-in-Suit.png

[BigSkyBob]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

[nclib]

Has anyone seen the Kerry/Bush results? These would be a better measure in Illinois.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

 

No it isn't, but thanks for playing! 

My point was that it is silly to expect EITHER party to simply waste its trifectas unless there is an independent/bipartisan redistricting process in every state (from a practicality standpoint).  It isn't just Republicans making Democrats do it, the reverse is also true, and the only way to break this vicious cycle is for every state to have a California-style independent redistricting commission.  Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders than roll-over and play dead in the face of maps like NC, MI, OH, TX, PA, and FL (although I am well aware that this is what BigSkyBob wants to see). 

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't expect fair maps, persay, just ones that aren't hideously gerrymandered like Ohio this year or Maryland or Massachusetts last time around. I think we ought to be drawing Indiana/Wisconsin type maps that do favor the party who drew them but aren't ridiculous. As for Illinois, I'd like to have seen something a little more even-handed, but it wasn't truly awful.

[Brittain33]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

No, it isn't.

[Miles]

If anyone has looked at the Republican's map yet, they should post it.  It looks much more fair and less gerrymandered than the one that Democrats passed.  Post it if you can find it.

You can find a copy of the map here:

http://mchenrycountyblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/GOP-Cong-Map-Proposed-in-Suit.png

Thats a very nice drawing...

[BigSkyBob]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

No, it isn't.

"However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage."

If that isn't the "The Republicans made us do it" argument, what is?

[BigSkyBob]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

 

No it isn't, but thanks for playing! 

My point was that it is silly to expect EITHER party to simply waste its trifectas unless there is an independent/bipartisan redistricting process in every state (from a practicality standpoint).  It isn't just Republicans making Democrats do it, the reverse is also true, and the only way to break this vicious cycle is for every state to have a California-style independent redistricting commission.  Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders than roll-over and play dead in the face of maps like NC, MI, OH, TX, PA, and FL (although I am well aware that this is what BigSkyBob wants to see). 

"Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders..."

That is the "The Republicans made us do it" argument for gerrrymandering.

[Brittain33]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

No, it isn't.

"However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage."

If that isn't the "The Republicans made us do it" argument, what is?

"Illinois would have drawn a fair map if only the Republicans hadn't done what they did in Michigan/Texas/whatever, serves them right."

The arguments you point out here and elsewhere are variations on "the system is screwed, so the Dems shouldn't practice unilateral disarmament." Rather different from "we would have disarmed if only the Republicans had gone first."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

No, it isn't.

"However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage."

If that isn't the "The Republicans made us do it" argument, what is?

"Illinois would have drawn a fair map if only the Republicans hadn't done what they did in Michigan/Texas/whatever, serves them right."

The arguments you point out here and elsewhere are variations on "the system is screwed, so the Dems shouldn't practice unilateral disarmament." Rather different from "we would have disarmed if only the Republicans had gone first."

Correct!  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

 

No it isn't, but thanks for playing! 

My point was that it is silly to expect EITHER party to simply waste its trifectas unless there is an independent/bipartisan redistricting process in every state (from a practicality standpoint).  It isn't just Republicans making Democrats do it, the reverse is also true, and the only way to break this vicious cycle is for every state to have a California-style independent redistricting commission.  Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders than roll-over and play dead in the face of maps like NC, MI, OH, TX, PA, and FL (although I am well aware that this is what BigSkyBob wants to see). 

"Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders..."

That is the "The Republicans made us do it" argument for gerrrymandering.

No it isn't, it is an example of the logical fallacy of quoting out of context.

[BigSkyBob]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

 

No it isn't, but thanks for playing! 

My point was that it is silly to expect EITHER party to simply waste its trifectas unless there is an independent/bipartisan redistricting process in every state (from a practicality standpoint).  It isn't just Republicans making Democrats do it, the reverse is also true, and the only way to break this vicious cycle is for every state to have a California-style independent redistricting commission.  Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders than roll-over and play dead in the face of maps like NC, MI, OH, TX, PA, and FL (although I am well aware that this is what BigSkyBob wants to see). 

"Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders..."

That is the "The Republicans made us do it" argument for gerrrymandering.

No it isn't, it is an example of the logical fallacy of quoting out of context.

"Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders..."

In context, your remark is stating that you support the Democrats gerrrymandering because Republicans in other states are doing it. That is, you are claiming the effect is your supporting gerrymandering by Democrats, and the cause is Republicans gerrymandering in other states. That's the "The Republicans made me do it!" excuse.

[BigSkyBob]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

No, it isn't.

"However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage."

If that isn't the "The Republicans made us do it" argument, what is?

"Illinois would have drawn a fair map if only the Republicans hadn't done what they did in Michigan/Texas/whatever, serves them right."

The arguments you point out here and elsewhere are variations on "the system is screwed, so the Dems shouldn't practice unilateral disarmament."

You are smuggling in a false premise here. The issue is not "the system is screwed." If that were merely the issue, the solution would be, "....so, Democrats ought to pass commissions in states they hold the trifecta."

Your real point is the bit about "unilateral disarmament," which is merely a restatement of the  "The Republicans made us do it." argument.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Look, by not "unilaterally disarming" you are claiming that if the Democrats passed commissions, while the Republicans gerrymandered, the net effect would be harmful to the prospects of the Democrats, so the actions of those rascally Republicans are forcing Democrats to gerrymander.

Claiming "the system is screwed" is moral cowardice in the face of evil. What isn't "screwed" is the system, but, rather, the Democrats in Illinois, and Republicans in North Carolina, etc.

Look, politicians stand for office. They ask the people of their states to represent their interests in the legislature. They have no right to offer the excuse of serial killers and drug addicts:

"Stop me before I kill again!"


"Stop me before I shoot up again!"

"Stop me before I redistrict again!"


If you believe, as you claim, that the best interests of the folks they represent lies in passing commissions, then those representatives ought to have the moral courage to put the interest of their constitutents before their partisan interests.

Look, "the system" gave the legislators the ability to pass a commission in both Illinois and North Carolina. They chose the option of gerrymandering.  "The system" wasn't screwed, the people within the system were.

[minionofmidas]

Well, this was a challenge to draw. 2 Hispanic majority VAP districts, 3 Black majority VAP districts that don't extend down into Will and Kankakee, and 11 of the 12 Chicagoland seats at least winnable for Democrats.



1st 50.1% Black VAP, 78.8% Obama
2nd 50.2% Black VAP, 81.2% Obama
3rd 55.7% Hispanic VAP, 69.7% Obama
4th 51.1% Hispanic VAP, 76.3% Obama
5th 71.7% Obama
6th 51.8% Obama (ie the R dump)
7th 50.4% Black VAP, 89.2% Obama
8th 64.5% Obama
9th 59.4% Obama
10th 59.6% Obama
11th 57.2% Obama
14th 57.0% Obama

Besides everyone knowing the DRA scheme by heart anyways, the seats are very vaguely where they used to be. Except that the 8th and 9th should be the other way round given where they're based (rather than what the 8th looks like) and for 11th read 13th and for 14th 11th - that's just a mistake I'm too lazy to correct.

[minionofmidas]

The Dummymander is now complete! The map is intended to give Democrats a chance, perhaps a good chance, at 16 seats... but not to guarantee all that many of them. As well as the above stuff. And to at least not split any of the downstate's urban cores. (Though some exceedingly Republican suburbs have been excised in some cases, and anyways the boundaries are sneaky-snakey. There isn't much room for error in a 4-2 downstate map.)





Chicagoland - changed the numbering as indicated above, and some quite minor changes to do with finding a few trapped precincts (fixing the populations then inspired a rejig south of Aurora.) 9th (former 8th) now 64.7% instead of 64.5%, 11th (former 14th) now 57.1% instead of 57.0%, other shares round identically.

12th (still East St Louis) 55.9% Obama
14th (Peoria and random points nearby) 55.5% Obama
15th (Decatur to Champaign, the wrong way) 54.1% Obama
16th (southern R sink, now apparently showing the fascist salute) 56.7% McCain
17th (places beginning in Rock) 55.2% Obama
18th (northern R sink; the golden apple the central Dem district worms are burrowing into) 56.4% McCain

[minionofmidas]

I particularly like how none of the R sinks border each other.

[ill ind]

  Lawsuit over the Dems map tossed out today

Ill_Ind