U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Does anyone know how Hamilton Twp. votes for President and Senator these days?

The one in Mercer County? Very swingy.

2009 Governor:
Christie (R): 14,234
Corzine (D): 13,490

2008 President:
Obama (D): 23,658
McCain (R): 19,422

2008 Senate:
Lautenberg (D): 20,594
Zimmer (R): 18,895

2006 Senate:
Menendez (D): 12,639
Kean (R): 12,527

2005 Governor:
Forrester (R): 14,235
Corzine (D): 13,990

2004 President:
Kerry (D): 20,874
Bush (R): 20,637

Source: http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/results_2010_doe.html

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

FWIW, I gave the rest of Gloucester and Salem County to NJ-1 because they are Democratic enough and then drew NJ-12 closer into Camden by pulling in Haddon Heights, Pennsauken, and Haddonfield.

My goal with that was to shore up LoBiondo by putting the D parts of Cumberland County into NJ-01, which necessitated dropping the more R parts of Gloucester.

Anyway, you could rearrange NJ-07 and NJ-11 to put the Union County R areas in NJ-11 in exchange for most of the Hunterdon/Somerset/Mercer parts of NJ-11. I just figured the Union R areas would prefer to keep their current Rep, but perhaps not as Lance hasn't been around long.

I think Lance would do better in his home county of Hunterdon. I would give Lance the rest of Hunterdon County, and parts of Somerset as necessary, in exchange for Union County.

And I object most strongly to being placed in Frelinghuysen's district!

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Interesting, it swung to Corzine. I had to put it in my Rush Holt district and was worried that it was a Republican town.

If I'm not mistaken, it is more Republican on the local level. Also, the areas nearer to Trenton are more urban and minority-heavy, so they would likely be more Democratic than areas to the south and east. If a similar plan is adopted, it's likely that Hamilton would be split, with the areas close to Trenton put into a Democratic district (presumably Holt's) and the rest put into Smith's district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

And I object most strongly to being placed in Frelinghuysen's district!

What's the matter with Frelinghuysen?

Perhaps I should rephrase that as "I don't want the district I live in to be dominated by Morris County."

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The Republicans, I think, are going to throw heavily Democratic Patterson into Sires's Hispanic district

What towns would you use to connect Paterson to JC and Newark? Would it still connect down to Perth Amboy?

No, you ditch the Elizabeth/Perth Amboy leg entirely.

Newark is already connected to JC under the current setup. All you have to do is connect Patterson to Newark through Passaic City and down the Bergen/Essex border. It sort of shapes like a U.

At first I didn't think that was possible without screwing over a Republican, but it seems like it can be done.





Still, I don't think the Democrats on the Redistricting Commission are going to go along with it. I still think the Holt/Lance matchup is the most likely outcome.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Yep, what you drew is basically a perfect 6-6 map for the GOP.

I drew almost exactly the same thing with very minor modifications. Sussex, Morris, Hunderdon/Somerset, Monmouth, and Ocean form the cores of 5 GOP districts.


The only modifications I made is that you have too much of Rodney's district in Essex county. You really want to get that West Orange/Bloomfield area in some Democratic district (Livingston, West Caldwell, North Caldwell are fine). Heavily Republican Middletown and Hazlet can go into Chis Smith's district, that southern tip of Hudson around Bayonne into Pallone's, and shove Payne's district west a bit into West Orange.

But we're talking about only shifting around 20k people or so.

I did it relatively cleanly without splitting a whole lot of townships. Under 10 I believe, not counting Jersey City, Newark, etc.

Technically the easiest path for the Democrats to form 7 strong seats is in the southern part of the state. Lobiondo's 2nd I believe has a Dem PVI, and could easily be made more Democratic by moving Democrats in from the 1st, and moving Willingboro into the 1st. The problem of course is that Lobiondo is entrenched. And as long as those VRA 10th and 13th exist (the 13th especially is completely boxed in), its hard to use the remaining 4 Democrats (Rothman, Pascrell, Holt, Pallone) to soak what is a fair number of GOP votes. Nobody really wants to touch areas like Monmouth county, or North Bergen. Rush Holt is sitting in a 54% Kerry seat.

I think an easier way for the Democrats to gain a seat in South Jersey is to shift the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd slightly counterclockwise. LoBiondo picks up much of Ocean County, and Andrews picks up Salem County and possibly even Bridgeton. Runyan gets stuck in a Burlington-Camden district, picking up Pennsauken and Voorhees, and swapping northern Ocean County with Smith in exchange for northern Burlington County. This way you don't have the trouble of a proven, entrenched incumbent.

Something like this:

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Can I ask your thinking behind putting that bit of East Windsor in the 3rd district? My mother lives there, so I'm curious.

Because it's more Democratic than places like Jackson or Toms River. I was going to put ALL of East Windsor in, but then Smith would be stuck with West Windsor and Plainsboro, which would take Democrats away from Holt.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I just now realized that it should be interesting to see if I remain in Frelinghuysen's district.  I'm barely in it as it is and I doubt my area is where it'll move.  I don't want to be in Lance's district.

It depends. If they go with the Frelinghuysen/Pascrell pairing, you're screwed. The 11th drops its Somerset County extension in exchange for South Passaic.

If they go with the Holt/Lance pairing, which I think is more likely, then everything north of the current 7th will have to expand southward. Either Frelinghuysen's district picks up more of Somerset County, and the 12th ends up looking more like it did in the 90's, or it drops the Somerset county extension and picks up the Republican parts of Union County. In the latter case, you'd be stuck with the winner of Lance vs. Holt.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

One thing I never understood: Why does Chris Smith keep getting elected? He's basically a moderate Democrat except he's an extreme pro-life zealot, which strikes me as a terrible fit for anywhere in NJ.

Most Republicans here are (unfortunately, IMO) like that. Tom Kean would be a Democrat in a lot of states. Chris Smith is basically a name brand entrenched incumbent.

Even Christie is moderate on a lot of issues. The difference is he doesn't tolerate the plundering NJEA.

Our entire Congressional delegation outside of Garrett is either moderate or pretends to be.

Catholics and NJ gerrymandering have helped him of course.

Not to mention the fact the quality of his opposition tends to be very low. The last time he failed to get 60% of the two-party vote was in 1982- the race for his second term.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I would also try to fit the Republicans in central Union County into Frelinghuysen's district. You can do this by taking the D-leaning shore towns in Monmouth in NJ-07 (like Tinton Falls, Eatontown and Red Bank) and put them in NJ-06, leaving room for NJ-07 to take in population from NJ-11 after NJ-11 takes in the Republican towns in Union County from NJ-06.

I second this. Taking places like Red Bank out of NJ-07  in favor of territory more familiar with Lance in northern Hunterdon and Warren (Warren County was in Lance's old state senate district) could also be enough to discourage someone like Jennifer Beck from primarying Lance.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

You guys ruin all my fun. Also, I have no idea what you're talking about, because I don't have New Jersey's towns memorized. I was eyeballing everything from this map.

Essentially we're saying you should rotate CD's 6, 7, 11, and 8 clockwise a bit. Pallone should pick up some more of those Democratic towns in eastern Monmouth (Tinton Falls, Eatontown, Red Bank), Lance should gain the rest of Hunterdon and some of Warren, Frelinghuysen should pick up western Union (which is more Republican than the 2008 Presidential election results make it look), and Pascrell should take in more of Middlesex.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here are the election results from the past six statewide elections for the towns in western Union County that JohnnyLongtorso put in NJ-08 (Clark Twp., Cranford Twp., Fanwood, Garwood, Kenilworth, Mountainside, Scotch Plains Twp., Summit, Westfield, and Winfield Twp.). I specifically omitted black-majority Plainfield from these totals.

2009 Gubernatorial:
Christie (R): 28,046
Corzine (D): 19,598

2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 38,538
McCain (R): 36,981

2008 Senatorial:
Zimmer (R): 35,217
Lautenberg (D): 32,780

2006 Senatorial:
Kean (R): 26,195
Menendez (D): 23,456

2005 Gubernatorial:
Forrester (R): 25,273
Corzine (D): 23,983

2004 Presidential:
Bush (R): 37,756
Kerry (D): 35,584

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Haven't drawn it out, but would it make any sense to give Pascrell white-majority but still Democratic leaning enclaves in Hudson like Bayonne, Hoboken and parts of Jersey City?

I don't think so. To get there you'd need to cut through the minority districts, and even if you went around the 10th it would cut the 13th in half. The only way to get Sires' district back up to Hispanic-majority would be to screw over Pascrell by going into Paterson, which defeats the purpose.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

One scenario on a Republican map could be for Sires (who is pretty far north in Hudson) to absorb some real-estate in the Meadowlands and the Palisades communities and go into heavily  minority and Democratic Hackensack (which is very similarly demograhically and economically to much of his current district). Pascrell could take remaining D-leaning Territory in Bergen, with Garrett absorbing Fair Lawn (which is only marginally Democratic AND only voted 5100 to 4100 for hometown son Rothman in 2010,), as well as GOP leaning Saddle Brook. Considering Garrett won this past election 65-35, even a little bit of boost for Rothman in the Bergen parts of a new NJ-5 would not be enough to overcome Garrett's strong base.

If I were the GOP, I wouldn't want to pit the polarizing Garrett against another incumbent, even if he were favored to win. Why not simply primary Rothman and Pascrell instead?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Also, at least on Johnny's map, Pascrell's seat still has the bulk of its population in Passaic County and in D fortresses elsewhere like Plainfield and Montclair. So having some swingy-towns in Union and Middlesex is not such a concern (but you should really try to get >60% McCain Clark out of his district if possible, perhaps by going through Westfield, which was only around 55% Obama). Remember, his current seat has some really R towns in Passaic like Wayne, North Haledon and Totowa in it, so Johnny's version is probably more D than the old version.

My bigger concern is that the GOP might not be too happy about both losing Runyan and leaving Lance open to a primary challenge by a Monmouth County Republican. Jennifer Beck is a rising star who has a history of winning tough races (she unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2007 who outspent her 7 to 1). Cutting places like Tinton Falls, Eatontown, and her hometown of Red Bank out of the 7th might discourage her ambitions.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Oh, look, they did a something!  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703806304576241153016131650.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Can anyone find a copy of the map?

Here is the link.

I got all excited thinking they did a congressional map. This was already posted in the state legislature redistricting thread.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/06/nj_parties_pick_leaders_for_co.html

DEMOCRATS

In addition to Roberts, Democrats picked:

• Ed Farmer, a former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.)

• Phil Thigpen, the Essex County Democratic chairman

• Nilsa Cruz-Perez, a former assemblywoman from Camden County who also served on the legislative redistricting commission

• Jeannine LaRue, who served in former Gov. Jon Corzine’s administration

• Michael Baker, a former assemblyman from Middlesex County

REPUBLICANS

In addition to DuHaime, Republicans picked:

• Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande (R-Monmouth)

• Eric Jaso, an attorney from Morris County who worked as an assistant U.S. attorney under Christie

• Sue Sheppard, a former Cape May County freeholder

• Aubrey Fenton, a pastor and former Burlington County freeholder

• Sherine El-Abd, a Republican activist and former official at the Department of Community Affairs




About the only person of note is the Pascrell CoS. If he gets mashed with Rothman they're going to want to make sure Pascrell has the advantage.

But how? The only other places southern Bergen County can go would be one of the minority districts. I just don't see that happening. I think we can rule out a Frelinghuysen vs. Pascrell or Garrett vs. Pascrell matchup as well. I'm beginning to think the odds-on favorite is Holt vs. Lance.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Ultimately, Pallone will be saved in redistricting by simple math. A district that is dominated by Middlesex County must exist. By virtue of containing the most Democratic areas of a Democratic county, it can't be a competitive district. If it can't be a competitive district, it can't be the scene of an I vs. I fight.

I'm not so sure. The Middlesex County-dominated district could be Holt's instead. Pallone's district could be carved up by Holt and Smith fairly easily.

There are only two possibilities for New Jersey's I vs. I battle next year. Option one is for District 5 to be redrawn to become a Bergen-based district. This would pit Rothman and Garrett against each other -- two congressmen without many strong allies in their respective parties. Much of the western half of the current District 5 would be given to Lance to shore up that seat; a lot of Rothman's Democratic territory could be gobbled up by Sires and Pascrell.

While it's easy to put Rothman in Garrett's district, I just don't see this happening. Garrett lives in Sussex County, so this configuration would still have to stretch from Pennsylvania to the Hudson River, and would be dominated by territory from Garrett's district. I don't think the Democrats on the redistricting commission would be too happy about that.

Option two is for District 7 to be combined with 12 to pit Lance against Holt. Much of Lance's old State Senate district would be absorbed by Garrett to give him only the tiniest foothold in 12. The rest of the new district would take in a balanced mix of 7 and 12 heading east, keeping the Middlesex County parts of 7 that Lance would rather not be there and keeping the Monmouth County parts of 12 that Holt would rather not be there.

For map drawers, the latter is the most elegant solution because both Lance and Holt live fairly close to one another. There's no reason why the district needs to stretch all the way to the Atlantic, so it gives a lot more leeway for negotiation around other districts.

I still think this is the most likely outcome, but this configuration would be very ugly indeed. I think a Holt vs. Lance district would keep each Congressman's base intact, and only go as far east as needed.  It would include all of Hunterdon County, the parts of Mercer County currently in the 12th, the parts of Somerset County currently in the 7th and 12th, and small parts of Union and Middlesex Counties. Such a district would be much more compact, much more easily justified by a community of interest standpoint, and (I think) much more capable of gaining bipartisan support.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's my evil GOP gerrymander:





NJ-1: Glassboro-Toms River. Open seat. Andrews could run here, but otherwise it's a Republican opportunity. 50.9% Obama, 50.3% Democratic average.
NJ-2: Vineland, Atlantic City, etc. LoBiondo is the incumbent. Takes in some Democratic areas and relies on the strength of LoBiondo's incumbency. 54.9% Obama, 53.3% Democratic average.
NJ-3: Cherry Hill, Lakewood, etc. Runyan is the incumbent. This seat could leave him vulnerable, as it trades some Democratic areas for other Democratic areas. 50.4% Obama, 52.7% Republican average.
NJ-4: Hamilton, East Brunswick, Middletown, etc. Smith is the incumbent. Takes in some Democratic areas and relies on the strength of Smith's incumbency. 52.0% Obama, 50.1% Democratic average.
NJ-5: Sussex, Wayne, Paramus, etc. Garrett is the incumbent. I was very picky about which Bergen County precincts went into this district. 55.7% McCain, 56.6% Republican average.
NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.
NJ-8: Jersey City, Paterson, etc. Sires vs. Pascrell. I took a leaf out of Krazen's book and made this the Hispanic-majority seat. 77.3% Obama, 76.0% Democratic average, 53.8% VAP Hispanic.
NJ-9: Hackensack, Teaneck, Englewood, and a tendril extending into Passaic and Essex Counties. Rothman is the incumbent. 61.8% Obama, 62.2% Democratic average.
NJ-10: Newark, Irvington, East Orange, etc. Payne is the incumbent. 89.0% Obama, 85.5% Democratic average, 51.3% VAP Black.
NJ-11: Hackettstown, Morris County, etc. Frelinghuysen is the incumbent. Compensates for West Orange and Millburn by picking up Warren County. 54.1% McCain, 57.3% Republican average.
NJ-12: The crown jewel of this gerrymander, Piscataway, Somerville, Trenton, Burlington, Camden, etc. Andrews vs. Holt, although Andrews may opt to run in NJ-1 instead. 72.8% Obama, 67.6% Democratic average, 48.8% VAP White.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is there election data for NJ on Daves Redistricting now or are these all add-ins?

There's election data on the app. Some pieces are missing, though.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.

I would reconfigure these 2. You're cutting through a lot of Republicans to get Ashbury Park and Long Branch, and those areas are reddening. Ashbury Park and Neptune are small enough to easily drown in the rest of Monmouth County. It would also make it much easier for a Monmouth County Republican to succeed Smith someday; we don't have many Middlesex County Republicans.

It would be much better to keep CD-6 mostly in Middlesex/Union County and pick up more minority growing areas that you left in CD-7 and CD-4.

That's a good point. It would make sense to trade the Monmouth County portion of NJ-6 for places like the Brunswicks. Still, that would pair Smith with Pallone in a somewhat competitive district, which could be risky. I'll have a closer look at it on Monday when I get home to the computer the save file is on.

I might also try for a configuration that pairs Holt and Pallone instead of Holt and Andrews. That configuration would likely also pair Pascrell and Rothman and keep Perth Amboy in Sires's district so that the Holt/Pallone district isn't forced into Elizabeth and Bayonne.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.

I would reconfigure these 2. You're cutting through a lot of Republicans to get Ashbury Park and Long Branch, and those areas are reddening. Ashbury Park and Neptune are small enough to easily drown in the rest of Monmouth County. It would also make it much easier for a Monmouth County Republican to succeed Smith someday; we don't have many Middlesex County Republicans.

It would be much better to keep CD-6 mostly in Middlesex/Union County and pick up more minority growing areas that you left in CD-7 and CD-4.

That's a good point. It would make sense to trade the Monmouth County portion of NJ-6 for places like the Brunswicks. Still, that would pair Smith with Pallone in a somewhat competitive district, which could be risky. I'll have a closer look at it on Monday when I get home to the computer the save file is on.

I might also try for a configuration that pairs Holt and Pallone instead of Holt and Andrews. That configuration would likely also pair Pascrell and Rothman and keep Perth Amboy in Sires's district so that the Holt/Pallone district isn't forced into Elizabeth and Bayonne.

Okay, I had some time to look at this, and here's the result:



This improves the 4th to 50.8% Obama (from 52.0%) and 50.6% Republican average (from 50.1% Democratic average), but I'm still concerned about pairing Pallone and Smith. While I think Smith would certainly be favored to win, the district is more competitive than his current district, it incorporates a lot of new territory, and if 2012 turns out to be a Democratic year, it could be trouble. Is it worth pairing Smith with a Democratic incumbent for a swing of a point and a half?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Okay, I had some time to look at this, and here's the result:



This improves the 4th to 50.8% Obama (from 52.0%) and 50.6% Republican average (from 50.1% Democratic average), but I'm still concerned about pairing Pallone and Smith. While I think Smith would certainly be favored to win, the district is more competitive than his current district, it incorporates a lot of new territory, and if 2012 turns out to be a Democratic year, it could be trouble. Is it worth pairing Smith with a Democratic incumbent for a swing of a point and a half?

Yep. Nobody should be afraid of Pallone in any monmouth based seat....Pallone did not even win the Monmouth section in 2010 and those were his base. The Holt section of Monmouth voted very Republican also.

You got many of the fastest reddening townships in New Jersey. Comparing Corzine 2005 to 2009 you have Old Bridge (13% swing), Hazlet (18%), Manalapan (16%) Marlboro (15%), chock full of good voters.

Also, I assume you drew this with the partisan figures. Why is West Windsor/Princeton Junction in the red district while Keyport, Sayerville, etc is in the green district? West Windsor and Plainsboro share a school district and you have a very valid reason to stick the green district into Mercer County.

Because dummy me saw a county line and decided not to cross it. Back to the drawing board...

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Okay, this should be it. The 4th is now a McCain district, albeit barely (50.1%), with a Republican average of 51.0%. The 6th becomes 67.5% Obama, 65.1% Democratic average.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I was kind of pissed to find out that The Holy Land, New Brunswick is split between two districts (the 6th and 12th) even if the reason is to make both seats more Dem. The place still shouldn't be dishonored like that, just pick one district to be worthy of its holiness. Hopefully that'll happen while still keeping both seats safe Dem (not really that hard actually.)

Am I reading the map wrong or is Trenton actually in NJ-04 instead of NJ-12? If it is...why?

Are you referring to my Republican gerrymander? If so, then you may rest assured that the city of New Brunswick is wholly in the 6th. The city does not extend into Somerset County. Trenton is also wholly in the 12th, to do otherwise would be stupid to say the least.