U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey

[minionofmidas]

Jerseyhance



I'm not perfectly happy with it to be honest. Might try running the Hispanic seat to Paterson instead of Perth Amboy in the next attempt. Nine split municipalities, but the only one not concerning the minority seats is two East Brunswick precincts just southwest of Millville.
Also, of course, this is what happens when you have no idea who lives where and only look it up after.

1 (Camden) 68% White, 14% Black, 11% Hispanic, 63.4% Obama. Andrews
2 (South) 65% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Black, 55.7% Obama. LoBiondo
Safe for him, probably gone once he retires. Same ol' same ol'.
3 (Trenton - Burlington) 63% White, 19% Black, 10% Hispanic, 62.1% Obama. Runyan, Smith
Neither of which could hold this.
4 (Ocean) 82% White, 55.8% McCain. open
Lol, there's no Republican incumbent from the Shore?
5 (Monmouth - South Middlesex) 73% White, 10% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 50.4% Obama. Pallone
I suppose he loses.
6 (Somerset - Hunterdon) 64% White, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 53.4% Obama. Lance, Holt
Looks like the right kind of seat for Lance... does Holt just move a few miles south to the third or what?
7 (Morris - Northwest) 79% White, 56.5% McCain. Garrett, Frelinghuysen
Nice primary fight.
8 (North Middlesex - West Essex) 60% White, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 10% Black, 57.8% Obama. open
This is in a lot of split towns with the 9th because the edge of Black settlement in Essex County just doesn't conform to town lines at all while still being fairly compact and reasonable. Moving the western edges of South Orange etc to the 9th pushes its Black share down and makes the 8th even longer and uglier.
9 (Newark) 51% Black, 20% Hispanic, 19% White, 87.0% Obama. Payne
Nothing to see here.
10 (Hudson) 54% Hispanic, 28% White, 72.4% Obama. Sires
Bayonne and Hoboken are an issue, aren't they? I'd much rather cut anything south of Elizabeth out.
11 (Bergen) 59% White, 17% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 56.0% Obama. open
Rothman's hometown was a very late, "just to get the numbers right and avoid an ugly town split" casualty. I forget what his current district looks like, could he run here anyways? It's a mostly quite natural but not a particularly safe seat.
12 (Passaic) 53% White, 30% Hispanic. 57.5% Obama. Pascrell, Rothman
See above.

Probably going to be 7-5, though could conceivably turn out 6-6 or even 10-2.

[minionofmidas]

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