U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey
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  U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey
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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 52591 times)
NY Jew
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« Reply #150 on: September 19, 2011, 10:24:30 AM »

Also, I make no claims about Ocean County. I've never really looked at it and don't know it, and the growth seems to be senior citizens, which is going to make it more conservative.
Orthodox Jews were a big part of their growth

no one cares ~
if there's a discussion about why Ocean County is more conservative the answer is very relevant and if you all of a sudden stop caring when you find out why, then you go on to prove that left wingers are the most intolerant and closed minded people in America.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #151 on: September 19, 2011, 03:52:24 PM »

NyJew is right. The Orthodox move into Lakewood made it the fastest-growing city in the state and McCain's best. Also factor lots of Staten Island and North Jersey white ethnics moving in and you see not only strength for GOP state and federal candidates but also landslides for Chris Smith.

Another question is whether Pallones Monmouth leg gets swallowed, but maybe an open seat with parts of Union, Middlesex and maybe a little bit of Hudson is created for him. Also will Payne representing the lion's share of mostly Latino Elizabeth continue?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #152 on: September 19, 2011, 04:05:32 PM »

NyJew is right. The Orthodox move into Lakewood made it the fastest-growing city in the state and McCain's best. Also factor lots of Staten Island and North Jersey white ethnics moving in and you see not only strength for GOP state and federal candidates but also landslides for Chris Smith.

Another question is whether Pallones Monmouth leg gets swallowed, but maybe an open seat with parts of Union, Middlesex and maybe a little bit of Hudson is created for him. Also will Payne representing the lion's share of mostly Latino Elizabeth continue?

That would be an open Dem seat, but not an open seat for Pallone. Some other Democrat would claim it.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #153 on: September 24, 2011, 10:37:50 AM »

A couple of  hints that Pallone has to watch his back:

1. Albio Sires said that he thinks he will have more of Middlesex. That is an interesting comment since besides Perth Amboy, the only big Hispanic area is New Brunswick  which is the heart of Pallone's base.

2. Pollster and Professor Patrick Murray, who has an inside line to the Democratic establishment, testified about how gerrymandered Pallone's district is. This means the Democrats realize that the current district is untenable.
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muon2
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« Reply #154 on: September 24, 2011, 12:42:49 PM »

I idea I looked at last spring was to create a strong Hispanic influence district as well as a majority Hispanic district. This can be done by splitting the current NJ-13. The north half links with Patterson as CD-8 with 57% HVAP and the south half links with New Brunswick as CD-7 with 31% HVAP. That still leaves room for a BVAP 51% CD-10, and none of the districts has to go crazy splitting towns, though some splits are unavoidable.


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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #155 on: September 24, 2011, 01:11:03 PM »

Muon,
I looked into a map like this as well. I preserved a black majority district, with one Paterson-North Hudson district and one Central Hudson-New Brunswick district both in the 40s for Latinos. South Belleville, North Newark and most of Elizabeth were in the latter. I like that your second one also connects the South Asian vote in Jersey City and Edison/Woodbridge.  What is the Asian VAP in your new "7th"?
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muon2
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« Reply #156 on: September 24, 2011, 01:58:56 PM »

Muon,
I looked into a map like this as well. I preserved a black majority district, with one Paterson-North Hudson district and one Central Hudson-New Brunswick district both in the 40s for Latinos. South Belleville, North Newark and most of Elizabeth were in the latter. I like that your second one also connects the South Asian vote in Jersey City and Edison/Woodbridge.  What is the Asian VAP in your new "7th"?

The above CD-7 has the following VAP demographics in DRA:
White 37.4%
Black 13.1%
Asian 16.9%
Hispanic 30.7%
Others 1.8%

A coalition candidate from just about any ethnicity could succeed here.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #157 on: September 26, 2011, 12:00:37 PM »

Did you move all of Elizabeth out of Payne as well?
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muon2
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« Reply #158 on: September 26, 2011, 09:42:01 PM »

Did you move all of Elizabeth out of Payne as well?

I put all of Elizabeth in my CD 7 stretching from south Jersey City to New Brunswick. My goal was to keep as many towns whole as possible.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #159 on: October 13, 2011, 08:05:18 AM »

http://pallonefornewjersey.com/


Pallone for Congress changes to this. Interesting.
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krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #160 on: October 17, 2011, 11:27:33 AM »

Garbage commissions has not worked out well for New Jersey where the commissions keep implementing Democratic gerrymanders.

That said, at least there is a sense of honor in that municipalities are not sliced and diced.

So all commissions draw democratic gerrymanders? Or is it that no republican gerrymander= democratic gerrymander to you? I did a democratic gerrymander in Nj and was able to make the 7th a Dem district in the north. The vra screws things up there. In the south all you gotta do is split the Camden area....doesn't work out well for the pubbies.

They seem, in practice, to have the advantage for reasons unknown, yes. Indeed, the last New Jersey legislative map engaged in a 3 way split of Jersey City and Newark despite the rules specifically stating that there must be a 2 way split.
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krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #161 on: October 17, 2011, 11:31:22 AM »

New Jersey's commission is not non-partisan, it's got a clear partisan intent.  And it's not like Democrats wouldn't have the most seats even under a completely non-partisan map. Republicans actually get an extra seat out of New Jersey, under a fair map, they wouldn't.

Which seat would that be? Your problem is actually that the GOP holds all 3 Bush/Obama districts.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #162 on: October 17, 2011, 11:35:47 AM »

Which seat would that be? Your problem is actually that the GOP holds all 3 Bush/Obama districts.

NJ-3 was drawn to protect Jim Saxton. Ocean County should be contained to one district.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #163 on: October 17, 2011, 11:43:21 AM »

Which seat would that be? Your problem is actually that the GOP holds all 3 Bush/Obama districts.

NJ-3 was drawn to protect Jim Saxton. Ocean County should be contained to one district.

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #164 on: October 17, 2011, 12:09:26 PM »

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.

It's not an issue of counties, which are pretty irrelevant in NJ, but having more than one district go from Delaware River to the shore when there is more justification for a north/south split.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #165 on: October 17, 2011, 12:34:03 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2011, 12:49:36 PM by krazen1211 »

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.

It's not an issue of counties, which are pretty irrelevant in NJ, but having more than one district go from Delaware River to the shore when there is more justification for a north/south split.

Indeed, but such machinations do not give the Republicans an extra district. There are still 2 Democratic leaning districts in South Jersey.

Given that 3 districts must be placed south of I-195, and that I-195 should not be double crossed, you would likely end up with the same 3 congressman we have now.

Unless you split up the Camden/Camden inner suburbs.
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Verily
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« Reply #166 on: October 17, 2011, 12:55:59 PM »

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.

It's not an issue of counties, which are pretty irrelevant in NJ, but having more than one district go from Delaware River to the shore when there is more justification for a north/south split.

Indeed, but such machinations do not give the Republicans an extra district. There are still 2 Democratic leaning districts in South Jersey.

Sure they give an extra Republican seat. A natural map of South Jersey would create two Democratic seats (one in Camden/Gloucester Counties and one in Burlington County), one Republican seat (most of Ocean County) and one marginal seat (Atlantic City, Cape May, outer Gloucester, etc.).

That's a pretty clear communities of interest grouping. The shore gets two districts and the Delaware Valley gets two districts, and each is very cohesive (well, except the Atlantic/Cumberland/Cape May seat, but that area is weird and doesn't fit well with anywhere else, either, so it'll have to do).
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krazen1211
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« Reply #167 on: October 17, 2011, 01:13:02 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2011, 01:40:27 PM by krazen1211 »

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.

It's not an issue of counties, which are pretty irrelevant in NJ, but having more than one district go from Delaware River to the shore when there is more justification for a north/south split.

Indeed, but such machinations do not give the Republicans an extra district. There are still 2 Democratic leaning districts in South Jersey.

Sure they give an extra Republican seat. A natural map of South Jersey would create two Democratic seats (one in Camden/Gloucester Counties and one in Burlington County), one Republican seat (most of Ocean County) and one marginal seat (Atlantic City, Cape May, outer Gloucester, etc.).

That's a pretty clear communities of interest grouping. The shore gets two districts and the Delaware Valley gets two districts, and each is very cohesive (well, except the Atlantic/Cumberland/Cape May seat, but that area is weird and doesn't fit well with anywhere else, either, so it'll have to do).

Your math is off. South Jersey is roughly 3.3 districts and you gave it 4. As it stands, we hold precisely the 2 districts one would expect even under that configuration, as well as the to be expected Monmouth County district.

I might add, your proposed configuration is highly desirable for the Republican party as you force the Atlantic City district to pick up a nice large chunk of Ocean County, at least compared to the brittain33 proposal which does not seem to do so.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #168 on: October 17, 2011, 02:04:20 PM »

Here's my new fair New Jersey map. Intentionally made no attempt to make a majority black or Hispanic district, although Payne and Sires would easily be reelected anyway. (This map would be perfectly VRA-compatible as it does not dilute minority voting power, just fails to gerrymander to concentrate it extremely--although there is still a plurality black district and a [barely] plurality Hispanic district.) No municipal splits (as a result, the districts vary by about 4,000 max from ideal, though some are very close to ideal).

Not totally happy with the four-way split of Somerset County (if you can't tell, North Plainfield is with Union County), but I was trying to go with communities of interest, and I think this split fairly accurately reflects commuting and settlement patterns.

The two Republican seats in NW Jersey were drawn that way to create one more suburban seat and one more rural seat. I felt this better reflected communities of interest than following county lines.

As for partisanship:

NJ-01 (Camden): 64-35 Obama
NJ-02 (Atlantic City): 55-44 Obama
NJ-03 (Toms River): 45-54 McCain
NJ-04 (Middletown): 46-53 McCain
NJ-05 (Wayne): 45-54 McCain
NJ-06 (Elizabeth): 62-37 Obama (45% white, 28% Hispanic, 17% black, 7% Asian VAP - minority opportunity)
NJ-07 (New Brunswick): 59-40 Obama (also 20% Asian VAP, although majority white)
NJ-08 (Paterson): 67-32 Obama (41% white, 32% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 12% black VAP - minority opportunity)
NJ-09 (Jersey City): 69-30 Obama (37% Hispanic, 37% white, 13% Asian, 9% black VAP - plurality Hispanic)
NJ-10 (Newark): 79-20 Obama (41% black, 31% white, 20% Hispanic, 4% Asian VAP - plurality black)
NJ-11 (Morristown): 43-56 McCain
NJ-12 (Trenton): 61-38 Obama

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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #169 on: October 18, 2011, 06:37:25 PM »


So, on the Democratic side, Pallone and one of Pascrell and Rothman get screwed, to be replaced by a Middlesex County Democrat and a Union County Democrat. On the Republican side, two of Garrett, Lance, and Frelinghuysen get screwed, to be replaced by (probably) a Bergen County Republican. Any predictions on who'd win the Republican primary in the 11th?

Anyway, its hard to tell, but it appears that Brigantine is not in the same district as Atlantic City. This should not be the case, since there are no roads connecting Brigantine to anywhere except Atlantic City (don't respond by posting a picture of the current 13th- this is supposed to be a fair map).

Also, I'd like to see a 13-district version using 2000 numbers, in response to the discussion that was going on in the Maryland thread.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #170 on: October 18, 2011, 06:41:34 PM »

I see the VRA still being the law of the land. A fair map reflects the VRA. I do not understand the obsession with not splitting municipalities.

My map is here:

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1196/new-jersey-redistricting-plan
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Verily
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« Reply #171 on: October 18, 2011, 08:16:30 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2011, 08:23:53 PM by Verily »

I see the VRA still being the law of the land. A fair map reflects the VRA. I do not understand the obsession with not splitting municipalities.

My map is here:

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1196/new-jersey-redistricting-plan

My map is completely VRA-compliant. All the VRA requires is that minorities not be diluted in their voting power and be enabled to elected their preferred candidates. In some areas, particularly where the majority population has been demonstrated to block-vote against minority candidates (the Deep South), this necessitates a 50%+1 VAP standard for minority districts, although even there a district could be VRA compliant if it were, say, 47% black and very likely to elect the preferred black candidate. Of course, in NJ racial polarization in voting patterns is much weaker, and consequently a 41% black plurality district is completely within the VRA provided it is not intentionally drawn to dilute the black community (and, while splitting counties and municipalities rampantly could up the black percentage, it's pretty clear that this map is not intentionally diluting them).

Also, missed that about Brigantine. Shouldn't be hard to fix.

I would figure Frelinghuysen would be favored over Garrett in that NJ-11; Garrett is a little bit too provocative and doesn't have much institutional support. I think the Passaic/Sussex/Warren and Morris parts of the district are about evenly split, though. Garrett also might try moving to NJ-05 and running there, although he's not at all a good fit for the seat.

Lance is just completely removed, but his district is the most obviously problematic anyway (well, except Pallone, but that's just because of where Pallone lives; the district itself ought to exist, just without the tail to Asbury Park).

Does Pascrell really live in Paterson? I just figured he was totally screwed, might try a run in NJ-05 but would lose. If he's in Paterson, maybe he could beat Rothman in a primary, but I doubt it--the Passaic County parts of NJ-08 are only about a third of the seat.

Also, Smith is cut out of his district (he lives in Hamilton, in Mercer County), but he could easily move to NJ-04.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #172 on: October 19, 2011, 12:31:31 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2011, 03:12:18 PM by Verily »

Here's a 13-district version with 2000 numbers. The "new" district is the marginal Bergen County seat (probably around D+2, although I don't have partisan data; the NJ-08 and NJ-13 parts of Bergen County are both marginal, so NJ-09 is about the same as the county as a whole). NJ-13 on this map is actually more Hispanic since it doesn't extend as far into Bergen County.



Not a huge fan of the split of Bergen County as designed, but the population doesn't work out properly to combine south Bergen with Paterson on these numbers. An alternative would be to combine Paterson with the Republican suburbs in northern Bergen County (rather than the marginal surburbs in western/southwestern Bergen County), but that doesn't really make any more sense from a communities of interest perspective (doesn't make less sense, either, though). The choice is basically between this map, which creates NJ-08 and NJ-09 as probably around D+8 and D+2, or an alternative version combining Paterson with northern Bergen County that makes both districts about D+5. Neither is satisfactory, really.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #173 on: October 19, 2011, 02:20:59 PM »

I see the VRA still being the law of the land. A fair map reflects the VRA. I do not understand the obsession with not splitting municipalities.

My map is here:

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1196/new-jersey-redistricting-plan

For the most part there is no compelling reason to split any municipalities in any New Jersey mapping. I certainly would not do so under even a GOP gerrymander.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #174 on: October 19, 2011, 03:31:41 PM »

Yes there is. Newark has a distinctly white/Latino North and East Ward (Hispanic district) and three largely black wards (Payne). These constituents have differing concerns. Jersey City has one and a half black wards and four and half Asian-Latino-White wards. Moreover, if you drive thru North Newark or the Ironbound its more like Hudson County than the rest of Newark, so that part should be in Pascrell or Sires and not Payne. Other communities have similar divides.

Verily did you mean 2000 or 2010 numbers?
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