What is considered a 'Safe' popular vote win?
GOPhound:
I was thinking about some of these state polls and how the one to really keep an eye on are the national head-to-head polls. In almost every election, the popular vote winner has also won the electoral college vote. I would think that these national polls are a more important indicatior of who will win the election.
We saw in 2000 how Gore won the popular vote by .5% but lost the electoral college by the slimmest of margins. Going by that, would it be safe to assume that any popular vote victory over .5% would guarantee an electoral victory? Basically that means that if one candidate won by .5% or more, a majority of the electoral votes from the close states like NM,IA,FL,OH would end up voting for the winner.
I'm not a statistician, but I think the odds of a candidate winning the popular vote by let say 1.5%, yet losing the electoral college would be pretty slim. Therefore I think I'm going to focus on the national polls, especially those by reputable organizations like Zogby.
12th Doctor:
I would say that 53% would be considered safe. Maybe 52%. That is a decent margin and if I were a candidate I would feel safe with that much.
dunn:
Quote from: GOPhound on March 19, 2004, 03:26:41 PM
I was thinking about some of these state polls and how the one to really keep an eye on are the national head-to-head polls. In almost every election, the popular vote winner has also won the electoral college vote. I would think that these national polls are a more important indicatior of who will win the election.
We saw in 2000 how Gore won the popular vote by .5% but lost the electoral college by the slimmest of margins. Going by that, would it be safe to assume that any popular vote victory over .5% would guarantee an electoral victory? Basically that means that if one candidate won by .5% or more, a majority of the electoral votes from the close states like NM,IA,FL,OH would end up voting for the winner.
I'm not a statistician, but I think the odds of a candidate winning the popular vote by let say 1.5%, yet losing the electoral college would be pretty slim. Therefore I think I'm going to focus on the national polls, especially those by reputable organizations like Zogby.
in 1888 Clevlend won the PV by 0.8% but lost 168-233 on EV
in 1876 Tilden won the PV by 3.02%! but lost 184-185 on EV
CTguy:
No, I don't think over a .5% win would be safe.
Look how the electoral college was reapportioned based on 2000's population numbers. Bush would win the electoral vote by 278-260 or something... not the slimmest of margins, based on the census figures for 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote by more than half a million.
This means even when they democrats win by half a million, the republicans have an 18 point electoral advantage.
The electoral college seems to heavily benefit smaller, more rural states... which unquestionably benefits republicans.
I think this time you could see the democrats win the popular vote by as many as 2 million votes and still lose the electoral college vote.
Gustaf:
It's a moot point since a lead of 1% in a poll would be within the margin of error. An actual win by 1% would be pretty safe I think, but there's no way for us to tell on beforehand if it's that close.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page