US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only thing I don't like about that map really is the split of Raleigh. The Charlotte split is kind of unavoidable because of Charlotte's size, and having a district in Charlotte only and the rest put in the suburbs doesn't really work nice. It's kind of like the way Columbus is split though that's also a Republican gerrymander (granted it predates the gerrymander.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The only thing I don't like about that map really is the split of Raleigh. The Charlotte split is kind of unavoidable because of Charlotte's size, and having a district in Charlotte only and the rest put in the suburbs doesn't really work nice. It's kind of like the way Columbus is split though that's also a Republican gerrymander (granted it predates the gerrymander.)

Yes, but when the split originated it didn't matter as much b/c Franklin County and to a lesser degree Columbus were Republican (I think).

[Verily]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

House of Representative Plan:

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_1&Body=House

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What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

North Carolina is not subject to preclearance. (A bunch of its counties are, but I think that only applies to redistricting by the county governments, not redistricting by the state government.)

[BigSkyBob]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

House of Representative Plan:

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_1&Body=House

-----------------------------------------------------

What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

North Carolina is not subject to preclearance. (A bunch of its counties are, but I think that only applies to redistricting by the county governments, not redistricting by the state government.)

Umm, yes it is. The DOJ rejected the "Fountain fishhook" once.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

House of Representative Plan:

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_1&Body=House

-----------------------------------------------------

What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

North Carolina is not subject to preclearance. (A bunch of its counties are, but I think that only applies to redistricting by the county governments, not redistricting by the state government.)

As some people on this forum who are more knowlegable on this issue than myself have said repeatedly, Congressional redistricting plans are subject to preclearance because they affect the counties that are subject to preclearance.

[minionofmidas]

It's not optimized to perfection, but Durham/Raleigh/rural Blacks gets about 54% Black (52% on VAP). Charlotte/Anson/Robeson/Fayetteville can be got to a bare Black+Native majority on VAP, though optimized more to keep Whites out than get Blacks in (matters because there's quite a few Hispanics in Charlotte).

[Miles]

I'd rather have Myrick. She has never struck me as being that bad. What don't you like about her? I don't see how I am really lucky unless you think Myrick is worse then Ellmers.

I thought Coble had some connections with extremist groups. Though that may be because someone used to complain about him a lot in discussions with me.

Jones isn't horrible, but I don't want to be represented by him though.

Myrick is rabidly anti-Islam. She also broke her term limits pledge.

I think Coble is pretty genuine and I think he means well. I like that he took the No Pension Pledge. 

Also, a business friend of my dad's, Harry Taylor, was the 2008 Democratic nominee in NC-09. We were pretty involved with his campaign. Ever since then, I've had a certain animosity towards Myrick.

This video of Harry Taylor got a good amount of media attention; he rails against Bush...right in front of Bush!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdFQX1NIxJY

[Frodo]

Looks like the state GOP will be altering its congressional redistricting map in response to apparently very real concerns that it will not pass Justice Department muster.

[Miles]

Looks like the state GOP will be altering its congressional redistricting map in response to apparently very real concerns that it will not pass Justice Department muster.

At this point, I'm tempted to say that any changes to this map couldn't be worse than the original plan for Democrats.

Even if they fix the 1st, the still have the 12th to worry about.

I'm sick of Rucho using that balloon analogy.

[Devils30]

If the GOP had any brains they would just give McIntyre a safe district that extends all the way into Charlotte. That way they would have 9 seats in the state. Even making nc-07 3% more R its unlikely they'll defeat him so might as well just make it safer.

[Devils30]

NC has a decent amount of moderate white democrats and these 55% McCain districts do leave openings for types like shuler and mcintyre against a far right R

[Miles]

NC has a decent amount of moderate white democrats and these 55% McCain districts do leave openings for types like shuler and mcintyre against a far right R

True. They did a fairly good job of screwing Shuler though. I could see NC-06, NC-13, NC-02 and NC-03 trend our way by the end of the decade.

Lets see what ol' Rucho comes up with to address the NC-01 issues though...

[minionofmidas]

Whatever they say, I'm pretty sure they'd blithely ignore Butterfield's concerns if they felt certain that their map would really give them 10 seats (as opposed to, give them a chance in 10 seats). It's even possible that the mapdrawers did feel that but have since been reality-checked by R lawmakers from the proposed 7th.

[krazen1211]

It certainly would be interesting to see how they get Onslow County into a Republican district (and not the 3rd).

Hideous, and really accomplishes little. Every district here meets the 55% standard except the 9th; it turns out you have to split Mecklenberg 3 ways to get that district higher than the 52% I got. But that should be enough.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suspect NC Republicans would have a bit of an aversion to touch-point for obvious reasons.

[Miles]

I suspect NC Republicans would have a bit of an aversion to touch-point for obvious reasons.

Good point.

Then again, they always were against the snake.

They hated the snake so much that they made another one!

[krazen1211]

I suspect NC Republicans would have a bit of an aversion to touch-point for obvious reasons.

Even that doesn't matter much. You simply connect via Franklin County's edge instead. Loses you some marginal points, but that's it.

It's not like the Democrats haven't done it before.

[krazen1211]

Here's the same map without touch point and without some bad county splits in the proposed map. I bumped CD-12 up to 79% obama.

[RBH]

out with the old



In with the new



new map stats

Gov

NC1: 74/24 Perdue
NC2: 52/46 McCrory
NC3: 53/44 Perdue
NC4: 67/29 Perdue
NC5: 53/44 McCrory
NC6: 51/46 McCrory
NC7: 48.5/48.4 Perdue
NC8: 55/43 McCrory
NC9: 66/32 McCrory
NC10: 56/42 McCrory
NC11: 52/45 McCrory
NC12: 73/25 Perdue
NC13: 53/44 McCrory

Pres

NC1: 71/29 Obama
NC2: 56/43 McCain
NC3: 56/43 McCain
NC4: 72/27 Obama
NC5: 57/42 McCain
NC6: 56/43 McCain
NC7: 58/42 McCain
NC8: 57/42 McCain
NC9: 54/45 McCain
NC10: 57/42 McCain
NC11: 59/40 McCain
NC12: 78/21 Obama
NC13: 54/45 McCain

Sen

NC1: 72/27 Hagan
NC2: 50/47 Dole
NC3: 51/46 Dole
NC4: 71/26 Hagan
NC5: 50/46 Dole
NC6: 48.5/48.3 Dole
NC7: 48.5/48.2 Dole
NC8: 50/46 Dole
NC9: 50/46 Dole
NC10: 49/47 Dole
NC11: 51/45 Dole
NC12: 78/20 Hagan
NC13: 51/47 Dole

[CultureKing]

out with the old



In with the new



new map stats

Gov

NC1: 74/24 Perdue
NC2: 52/46 McCrory
NC3: 53/44 Perdue
NC4: 67/29 Perdue
NC5: 53/44 McCrory
NC6: 51/46 McCrory
NC7: 48.5/48.4 Perdue
NC8: 55/43 McCrory
NC9: 66/32 McCrory
NC10: 56/42 McCrory
NC11: 52/45 McCrory
NC12: 73/25 Perdue
NC13: 53/44 McCrory

Pres

NC1: 71/29 Obama
NC2: 56/43 McCain
NC3: 56/43 McCain
NC4: 72/27 Obama
NC5: 57/42 McCain
NC6: 56/43 McCain
NC7: 58/42 McCain
NC8: 57/42 McCain
NC9: 54/45 McCain
NC10: 57/42 McCain
NC11: 59/40 McCain
NC12: 78/21 Obama
NC13: 54/45 McCain

Sen

NC1: 72/27 Hagan
NC2: 50/47 Dole
NC3: 51/46 Dole
NC4: 71/26 Hagan
NC5: 50/46 Dole
NC6: 48.5/48.3 Dole
NC7: 48.5/48.2 Dole
NC8: 50/46 Dole
NC9: 50/46 Dole
NC10: 49/47 Dole
NC11: 51/45 Dole
NC12: 78/20 Hagan
NC13: 51/47 Dole

Redistricting really needs to be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

[Verily]

How exactly does switching from Raleigh to Durham fix whatever legal challenges Butterfield was talking about?

[minionofmidas]

How exactly does switching from Raleigh to Durham fix whatever legal challenges Butterfield was talking about?

By allowing him to take a handful of extra rural blacks - there's five additional counties his district edges into on the east.

That new second district is hilarious.

McIntyre is now paired with Kissell in the 8th (based on residence). Which is also probably unwinnable. I suppose we all know why that is.

[RBH]

the racial stats for the 3 Obama districts.

NC1: 54AA/37W
NC4: 53W/32AA
NC12: 51AA/34W

NC1 was 52/39 on RLC1. So RLC2 moves up the percentage a few points

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Redistricting really needs to be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Quoted for truth.

[minionofmidas]

I'm intrigued by the mini boundary changes to the 5th, 10th and 11th.