2011 and Beyond...

[Kevin]

1 AUGUST 2011

Our first cumulative look at the 2012 Senate races:

This assuming that Snowe and Collins do change parties.

I'd move Florida, Montana, and North Dakota to tossup given the environment for those incumbents.

[Kevin]

Good job so far Miles!

While I don't agree with the storyline entirely, I still have to say you spared no effort with this.

[Kevin]

That map is a bit of an upset... But I hope Obama will carry some "romney" states in that map like PA, OH and FL.

I'd move North Carolina to lean Republican, and make VA and Florida toss-ups. Also I'd move OH  MI, IA, and CO to toss-up status as well with PA perhaps being slightly Democratic.

[Kevin]

ROMNEY SOLIDIFIES IN; VA, SC, FL REPORT

Chris: Welcome back to our coverage in MSNBC. In what has been our first closely contest Presidential state, Indiana will be going to the Republicans. While Obama's 2008 win here was considered somewhat of a fluke by most Republicans operatives and strategists, the GOP nonetheless made sure that this state would not fall to Democrats once again. With 93% of votes counted, we can project that Indiana will fall to Romney by a margin of 52-47. While this margin isn't as bad as Bush's two landslides here, it nonetheless is a blow to Team Obama. This certainly is not good for Obama, who polls show is struggling in this region.

Rachel: Here's more worrisome news for Democrats. The first House pickup of the evening will not be switching from Republican to Democratic hands, rather a Republican will be ousting a Democrat. In that close IN-02 race, the AP projects that Congressman Donnelly will not be able to overcome Walorski's lead. For him to win, there would need to be a catastrophic Republican collapse in St. Joseph and Starke counties. While Donnelly is underperforming in his new Republican counties,  Walorski is controlling the bleeding in the Democratic counties.

Chris: Very ironic that this seat would be one of the first to flip Republican; Donnelly was a bright spot for Democrats in 2010 in what was otherwise a horrendous night. We do have some good news from Virginia for Obama though. Obama's effort her was very strong and it looks to be paying off tonight. 54% of VA precincts are reporting and, based on where those precincts are coming from, Obama looks like he will ultimately retain the state's 13 electoral votes. The AP projects that when all the votes are counted, Obama will win by 51-47 in Virginia.
However, what is still very close is the colossal Senate race between former Governor Kaine and former Senator Allen. Kaine, of course, has always been a strong ally of the President, but even with 54% of votes in, Kaine looks to be underperforming. He only leads by less than 1 point half of a point.

Rachel: As for Virginia's Congressional seats, there's not much to see. All incumbents are slated to win, resulting in a continuing delegation of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  This Virginia win gives the President a much-needed boost in the Electoral College; he now trails 35-16.

Chris: Actually, make that 44-16. South Carolina is reporting and we can put it in the GOP column. Romney wins its 9 votes by 12 points. Of course, Obama was strong in Charleston, Columbia and rural black areas, but he was blown out in the heavily conservative northern and eastern counties.

Rachel: We also have our first numbers from Florida rolling in. This race has the potential to keep us awake all night! With 42% of precincts in, Obama is up by just over a point. Now, I would caution anyone not to look too far into that number. Most of the panhandle counties have yet to report anything; of course these counties are very heavily Republican, so Romney will certainly get a boost there. The question is if Obama can cobble enough votes together in southern Florida to offset the panhandle counties.

Chris: Going into another break, lets recap what we have. At 8:00, polls in many more states just closed. We'll have those results when we return.

ROMNEY: 44
OBAMA: 16

Timeline looks very good so far!

However, no way would the VA Senate race be that close if both Loudoun and PW counties went to Kaine. Especially since Kaine would still have a window for even if he still lost those two since he did fairly well for a Democrat down state.