2011 and Beyond...

[Cath]

Too bad that Indiana doesn't have a closed primary system. That way Lugar would be toast.

Thankfully Indiana has an open primary system, otherwise one of the nation's few sane Senators would be toast.

Wow. Two of my favorite Indianans on the forum going at it.

[feeblepizza]

Too bad that Indiana doesn't have a closed primary system. That way Lugar would be toast.

Thankfully Indiana has an open primary system, otherwise one of the nation's few sane Senators would be toast.

Wow. Two of my favorite Indianans on the forum going at it.

We prefer to be called "Hoosiers," thank you very much.

If tmth and me were running against each other for office, he would be the establishment candidate with gobs of donations from rich, constipated PGA tour enthusiasts, and I would be guzzling loads of cash from the Tea Party Express.

[Miles]

ANTI-INCUMBENT!!?? NOT HERE!
LUGAR WIN IS BIG SETBACK FOR TEA PARTY

In what has been the first of many competitive Senate primaries to come, the establishment has pulled through in Indiana. As more precincts have poured in, its has become increasingly unlikely that Richard Mourdock will get the support he needs to unseat Senator Lugar.

With 99.9% of votes tallied, Lugar's lead is holding up:

Lugar- 50.2%
Mourdock- 48.9%

To win the primary, Lugar put together an interesting electoral coalition. The Senator actually lost among registered Republicans by 15 points, 57-42. However, there is no question that Independent voters, who made up a whopping 31% of the primary electorate, obviously delivered for Lugar, as they went nearly 2-1 in his favor. Democrats, who made up 7% of the Republican primary, split nearly even between Lugar and Mourdock; 52% of Democrats seemed to genuinely like Lugar, while 47% wanted Republicans to nominate the weaker candidate. Overall, Lugar's coalition of moderate Republicans, Independnets and conservative Democrats pulled him over the finish line and allowed him to retain his seat. Going into the general election, Lugar leads Jill Thompson by margins of 30 points and is heavily favored.

Primary breakdown by party:

[Niemeyerite]

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/

[feeblepizza]

Ah, fuck.

[tmthforu94]

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/

If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/

If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform

[tmthforu94]

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/

If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform

The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/

If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform

The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

Isn't Weinzapfel a liberal democrat?? He might run if it's clear Lugar will loose the primary. I really don't know.

[feeblepizza]

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/

If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform

The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

Isn't Weinzapfel a liberal democrat?? He might run if it's clear Lugar will loose the primary. I really don't know.

Remember that Tmth also supports Lugar...and Weinzapfel has, I believe, denied interest in running.

[tmthforu94]

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/

If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform

The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

Isn't Weinzapfel a liberal democrat?? He might run if it's clear Lugar will loose the primary. I really don't know.

Remember that Tmth also supports Lugar...and Weinzapfel has, I believe, denied interest in running.

Weinzapfel is center-left, like many Democrats. He just has a proven record of working with both sides in Evansville. He'd probably be better for Governor, though I'd support Pence over him.

I fail to see the point you're trying to make, Feeble. Lugar has a longstanding record as a conservative, bi-partisan Republican.

[feeblepizza]

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

[Miles]

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

That also sounds pretty bipartisan to me.

[Miles]

JUST THE RIGHT ANGLE

CONTROVERSIAL SHARRON ANGLE WINS GOP PRIMARY...AGAIN

ANGLE, TITUS COMPETE TO BECOME NV'S 1ST FEMALE SENATOR

Nevada Republicans essentially had three choices in their primary today; they had a good choice, a bad choice and an ugly choice. The consensus among political junkies: they sure didn't chose the good one.
Despite her initial baggage, tea party Republican Sharron Angle will be ousting Sen. John Ensign, and fending off a challenge from Rep. Dean Heller. Heller, the strongest candidate in the general election, was primarily the subject of negative attack ads from both Ensign and Angle. While both Ensign and Angle focused on dragging Heller's numbers down, Nevada Republicans seemed unwilling to forgive Ensign for his marriage scandal; Ensign thus underperformed and Angle was able to slide through.
For the tea party, the Angle win is comes as a hard-fought victory after a stinging loss in Indiana. After their win here in Nevada, other Senate races the tea party will be focusing on will include those in ME, FL, MO and TN.

Angle- 35.1%
Heller- 34.2%
Ensign*- 27.8%

From a county-by-county perspective, roughly 48% of votes came from Clark county. This county delivered for Angle, who won there with 37% compared to Ensign's 28% and Heller's 32%. In the second largest vote source, Washoe County, making up 23% of the electorate, Ensign fared better, beating Angle 38-33, but it was not enough to compensate for his poor performance in Clark County. In the rural areas, accounting for the remaining 29% of the electorate, Heller and Angle ran even, each averaging about 35% with Ensign trailing with 28%.

Looking towards the general election, Republicans now have a decidedly uphill climb. Dina Titus was easily elected the Democratic nominee and has been leading Angle in the polls; the most recent Mason-Dixon gave Titus a 46-38 advantage and most handicappers will likely move Nevada from 'Tossup' to at least 'Lean Democrat.' The winner in November will become Nevada's first female Senator.

Nevada is also an interesting state in that 2 of its 4 House seats will be open. Congressmen Joe Heck and Shelley Berkley will be virtually assured victory. In the new 4th district, a liberal Las Vegas-based district, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani has won her primary and is a favorite to win the general election; she will be running against Republican John Chachas. To fill Dean Heller's open seat, Sue Lowden who owns property in Reno, will run against Nancy Price; the district is only slightly red. Still, it looks like Nevada will be sending an evenly split delegation to the House.

NV district PVI's:
NV-01: D+11 (Berkley)
NV-02: R+4 (Lowden vs Price)
NV-03: R+7 (Heck)
NV-04: D+7 (Guinchigliani vs Chachas)

[feeblepizza]

Go Angle!

[tmthforu94]

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.

[feeblepizza]

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.

Even if Dick Lugar did endorse McCain, I doubt he really meant it. After the second presidential debate, he released a statement praising Obama's foreign policy. And what about his support for Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan? I cannot forgive him for supporting liberal activist judges, either.

[Niemeyerite]

Angle won the primary? LoL, D+1 =)
Awesome, Miles. Hopefully, Price will beat Lowden and Nevada will have 5 democrat congresspeople and only 1 republican.

[feeblepizza]

Lowden will win

[tmthforu94]

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.

Even if Dick Lugar did endorse McCain, I doubt he really meant it. After the second presidential debate, he released a statement praising Obama's foreign policy. And what about his support for Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan? I cannot forgive him for supporting liberal activist judges, either.

And how do you know Lugar didn't mean it? Palm readings? Health Care, Stimulus Packages, DADT...three of the biggest issues during the Obama Administration...three issues Senatore Lugar stood with the GOP on.

[feeblepizza]

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.

Even if Dick Lugar did endorse McCain, I doubt he really meant it. After the second presidential debate, he released a statement praising Obama's foreign policy. And what about his support for Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan? I cannot forgive him for supporting liberal activist judges, either.

And how do you know Lugar didn't mean it? Palm readings? Health Care, Stimulus Packages, DADT...three of the biggest issues during the Obama Administration...three issues Senatore Lugar stood with the GOP on.

He endorses McCain, yet praises Obama. Doesn't really seem like he meant it. And must I remind you that START was also a major focus of President Obama, and an issue that Lugar stood with the liberals on?

[Miles]

Ok, guys, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but in this TL, Lugar wins, although by a narrow margin. There, its over; we can move on. Lugar will easily win the general election and I may have other plans for Mourdock. There; everything will be fine and rosy!

[Niemeyerite]

Is Lugar a socialist, feeble? hahaha..

[feeblepizza]

Is Lugar a socialist, feeble? hahaha..

No, but too liberal for me.

[Miles]

In our first look at the general election match up since Romney locked up the Republican nomination, we find a competitive. With unemployment still floating at 7.9%, we can expect voters to hold Obama accountable for the slower-than-expected recovery rate. Romney holds Obama under 270 electoral and under 50% nationally. However, Obama clings to a 12-point electoral college margin and a 2-point popular vote advantage. Both Obama and Romney post slightly positive approvals/favorables; however, since neither one can break 50%, we have the potential for a very competitive contest.

Aggregate numbers:

Do you approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
Yes- 48%
No- 47%

Do you have a favorable view of Mitt Romney?
Yes- 46%
No- 42%

Who are you planning on voting for this November?
Obama- 47%
Romeny- 45%

In the electoral college, both candidates have their respective regional bases locked up. The Romney campaign is aggressively contesting previously blue states such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Colorado, all with varying degrees of success. Obama is still betting on the "new South" by strongly contesting Virginia and North Carolina.
One state where Obama has made inroads lately is Ohio; the governor, Ted Strickland, has helped Obama fund-raise and campaign. Strickland, who narrowly clung to reelection in 2010 by less than 1000 votes, has mobilized much of the state's Democratic machinery; many considered Strickland's reelection in 2010 the test-case for Obama's 2012 Ohio campaign. Unemployment in Ohio is down to 8.1%, marginally above the national average.
States where Romney is performing well include the swing state of Florida and New Hampshire.

OBAMA- 236
ROMNEY -224

Senate Outlook

A few key races...


I'll have an updated House map out within a few days.