2011 and Beyond... (user search)
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April 16, 2024, 05:35:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2011 and Beyond... (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 137401 times)
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #25 on: December 06, 2010, 01:55:54 PM »

Nice job, as always.
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #26 on: December 12, 2010, 12:54:00 PM »


There's a reason for everything...
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #27 on: December 12, 2010, 06:07:45 PM »


...it's referred to as "College Exam Week" or "Hell".
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #28 on: December 13, 2010, 12:27:21 PM »

Glad to see this back again!

And the redistricting map will be good. Sadly, with all the Republicans running the Legislatures, there will be a lot of GOP Gerrymanders...
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #29 on: December 16, 2010, 06:35:29 PM »

Fantastic!
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #30 on: December 19, 2010, 12:46:07 PM »
« Edited: December 19, 2010, 12:57:11 PM by Lt. Gov. KS21 »

Good God, Miles, how long did that take? Shocked


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!

It shows. It really, really, really shows. Shocked

EXCELLENT work.

Yeah, it was a lot of work. But I was happy to help out.

But Miles deserves the most credit- I only did a few states (AR (we worked together), MO, KS, OK, NJ, GA, WA), most of which are small(er than normal).

Miles did the larger states like PA, FL, NY, OH, MI, IL, etc, which ate up a lot more time.

Thanks, Sven!
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #31 on: December 19, 2010, 01:35:30 PM »
« Edited: December 19, 2010, 01:38:27 PM by Lt. Gov. KS21 »

Great! Smiley My only real nitpick that I can see is Kansas, where I don't see the all Republican legislature creating a toss-up district right next to a safe Republican district.


My explanation-

They've done it before. They could have had Moore screwed over 5000+ ways in 2000 but they didn't because the KS GOP has created a swing districts in recent decades if it makes another district (Jenkins, in this case) safe for good.

This is ideal for the GOP because now every single Democratic area is now out of CD2, making a Boyda 2006-repeat practically impossible.

The GOP has controled the process for 3 decades now (Hayden, Graves, Brownback) and with only the exception of 1995-1999 we've had 1 or 2 Dems (Slattery, Moore, Boyda) in this very red state.
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #32 on: December 20, 2010, 07:56:11 AM »

That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Did Akin's district boundaries change because I would  say that's  not a real swing district currrently.

Yes, the boundaries changed on Akin's district. This was planned. With a split redistricting process, it would seem likely that a 5-3-1 R compromise would be good.

Clay's district was moved north taking parts of Akin's district, had the southern 1/3 taken out and was given to what remained of Akin's. This plan more evenly splits up the Red suburbs, Blue suburbs, and Urban STL.

Cleaver's district had the GOP suburbs taken out and replaced with Caly County, which is a swing county by Missouri standards.
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KS21
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,901
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

« Reply #33 on: December 29, 2010, 03:33:55 PM »

Excellent!
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