2011 and Beyond...

[Miles]

I agree with KS and bawlexus. I've lived in Louisiana for long enough to know that this is something Jindal would actually say and do.

He is super-popular, sadly for me! If anything, I went low on his numbers.

[Miles]

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

You called the State of Louisiana "xenophobic." That's biased in my eyes.

Its is. Its a very racist state.

...and I'm saying that as a white person!

[Miles]

Yes, I agree opinions should be kept out of timelines. However, from time to time, my personal views may come across. But overall, I'll try to keep it pretty unbiased.


...I took the 'xenophobic' out of the Jindal post!

I even took down my signature, just to show how unbiased I am!!

[Miles]

23 SEPTEMBER 2011

As the 2012 political season kicks into gear, more incumbents announce their retirement and more candidates formally announce their intentions...



"By next year, I will have served 24 years in the Senate; while my 24 years as a Senator from Wisconsin have been productive and gratifying, I regret to say that I will not be up for reelection to a 5th term. I believe that, due to the unique political circumstances in my home state and my need to spend more time on other endeavors, such as my family and the affairs of my great team, the Milwaukee Bucks, I finally feel that it is time to bring closure to my legislative career. Hence, I will join Senator Nelson of Florida as one of the outgoing members of this Congress.
 Of course, during the campaign season, I will support 100% and endorse the Democratic candidate; I hope that candidate will be an independent-minded and distinguished citizen of Wisconsin who has a proven record of standing up for what he believes in, regardless of the political costs.  The state of Wisconsin has sent some great Senators to Washington and I hope that as time goes on, I will be remembered as one of the. While the Republican party saw a resurgence in Wisconsin this year, I know that that Wisconsin is, at its core, a center-left state and I am confident that its citizens will have the good judgment to elected a Senator who will continue my work."




"After 18 great years of serving the people of California in the Senate, I will not be seeking reelection in 2012. During most of my life, I have served the California in one capacity or another. I have had setbacks, such as my ill-fated 1990 campaign for Governor, and I have had good times, like my 2006 landslide victory and more recently my management of my friend Barbara Boxer’s 2010 reelection campaign. I feel that Barbara and I have accomplished much over our 18 years in the Senate on behalf of the people of California. I have spent my career fighting for economic prosperity, social justice, women’s advancement and environmental conservation. Having served under the great times of the Clinton Administration and the darker days of the Bush years and finally under President Obama, my experience tells me that better days are ahead of America as a country. I will be spending the remaining year of my term finishing projects and I will be on the campaign trail for California Democrats."




"Today, as the 2012 political landscape is beginning to take shape, I have examined my own electoral prospects. After careful consideration and consulting with my family, I have decided to launch another bid for US Senate; my aim is to replace outgoing Senator Bill Nelson. In 2010, I watched as Florida elected one of the most extreme candidates in its history, Marco Rubio; since then, Senator Rubio has pursued his partisan agenda in the Senate and he has put the people of our state second.  For the past two years, I have been encouraged by many people not to end my political career.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting a new result. Hence, because Rubio greatly benefitted from a split Democratic vote in 2010, I will be running as Democrat. As a moderate, I have been struggling to find a foothold in our increasingly partisan political scene. The Republicans have moved far to right and there is little room for Independent candidates. Thus, I am hoping that the Democratic Party will embrace my political moderation and common-sense approach to politics. As your governor, I fought both parties and made many enemies, but I delivered results for Florida by putting people ahead of the normal politics of Tallahassee. If elected to the Senate, I will do the same in Washington. The people of Florida need a champion for their interests in the Senate and as your Senator, I will always put the needs of the Sunshine State ahead of any ideological agenda or special interest groups."




Former Congresswoman Dina Titus, flanked by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, announces her candidacy for the Senate seat currently held by John Ensign.

“Today, I have decided after much consideration that I will be running for Senate. As a Congresswoman, I helped to steer things such as employment incentives, energy funding and education dollars towards Nevada. After a year a brief hiatus from politics, I have decided to throw may hat back in. For twenty-four years, Senator Reid has been driving Nevada forward; he has used his vast clout in the Senate to make sure the Nevada is on a level playing field with the rest of the nation. As your Senator, I will help Reid bring Nevada back from the brink and work for prosperity both at the state and national levels. I have watched Senator Ensign put his extravagant personal musings before the needs of our state. I’ve been through lots of rough battles before, but this time, I know we can win! ”

Titus is immediately endorsed by Reid.


“After months of carefully considering my future plans, I have decided that I will be Republican candidate for Senate in 2012 from Connecticut. I learned many things during the course of my 2010 campaign; I will undoubtedly use those lessons in this upcoming campaign season. Connecticut faces a flip-flopping political chameleon who has been Washington for decades. His name is Joe Lieberman. During his time in the Senate, he has looked out for only himself while the people of our state, and to a great extent, our country, has suffered. Now he hopes by simply switching parties, his constituents will forget about his abysmal record. Not if I can help it. As Republicans, as citizens of Connecticut, I know that we can do better than Senator Lieberman.  I have spent my time talking with the people of our and state and I feel they must me adequately represented in the Senate. Thus, I hope to be Connecticut’s next Senator.”

[Miles]

Go Crist and Go Feingold. I would prefer ross miller over titus

Reid's seat will be open in 2016...Miller might just run then

[Miles]

26 SEPTEMBER 2011

Critical Insights: Maine Republican Primary Poll

In a Republican Primary would you vote for Senator Olympia Snowe, or State Senator Chandler Woodcock?

Snowe-38%
Woodcock-49%
Unsure-13%

In a Republican Primary would you vote for Senator Olympia Snowe, or businessman Scott D'Amboise ?

Snowe-37%
D'Amboise-53%
Unsure-10%

Do you approve of the job Olympia Snowe is doing as a US Senator?

Yes-35%
No-59%

Do you approve of the job Susan Collins is doing as a US Senator?

Yes-37%
No-57%

Do you approve of the job Paul LePage is doing as a Governor?

Yes-62%
No-29%


Quinnipiac University-Maine Republican Poll

Would you vote to reelect Olympia Snowe over a more conservative primary challenger?

Yes-32%
No-59%

Do you think Olympia Snowe belongs in the Republican or Democratic party?

Republican-29%
Democratic-64%

Do you approve of the job Olympia Snowe is doing as a US Senator?

Yes-36%
No-61%

[Miles]

1 OCTOBER 2011

In Kentucky, both sides are aggressively campaigning. Governor Steve Beshear has hosted campaign events with Bill Clinton and Ben Chandler. On the other side, both of Kentucky's Republican Senators have gone to bat for their parties's nominee, David Williams.





While Williams has tried to tie the governor to the unpopular Obama, Beshear has run a campaign focusing on local and state issues. Beshear points out that he has helped bring fiscal balance to the state and reminds voters that he has actually lowered taxes; he also emphasizes his record as a fiscal and social moderate. Despite Williams' attacks, Beshear is holding up well in the polls, and going into October, it seems unlikely that the Republicans will pick up enough momentum to oust him.


Survey USA-Kentucky Poll (10/1-10/3)

Do you approve of the job Steve Beshear is doing as governor?

Yes-56%
No-40%

This November, will you vote for Democratic Governor Steve Beshear or Republican David Williams?

Beshear-54%
Williams-42%

Generally speaking, do you think Beshear is too conservative, too liberal, or about right?

Too conservative-17%
Too liberal-23%
About right-50%

Do you approve of President Barack Obama?

Yes-34%
No-59%

[Miles]

5 OCTOBER 2011



"After a hard-fought campaign for Governor in 2010, my friends, we came up short. In those past months I have been thinking about the people of New York. They have been shortchanged by the Democrats who dominate our state and national government. We as Americans deserve better! I figure that if I can't help then as governor, I will represent them in the Senate. Long story short, I will be challenging liberal Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand for her Senate seat next year. As a Senator, Gillibrand has not cast votes thinking about her constituents. She only votes how Chuck Schumer tells her to! I hope that you will join my campaign, as I will be the candidate who best represents the people of New York. I will take my conservative principles to the Senate to stand up to the status quo. We had a great effort in 2010 and we can win in 2012 too!"

[Miles]

9 OCTOBER 2011


Siena Research Institute- New York  Poll

_{(taken from 10/6-10/9)}

Summary:

Both of New York's Democratic Senators and its Democratic Governor all remain very well-liked; each of them posts an approval margin of +20 or better. Kirsten Gillibrand goes into 2012 looking very strong against her only announced opponent, Republican Carl Paladino; she posts an impressive 37-point lead. Paladino is a very weak candidate; by a better than 2-to-1 margin, voters hold an unfavorable view of him. To see how a more moderate Republican would fare against Gillibrand, we replaced Paladino with Congressman Chris Lee. Lee only does slightly better than Paladino and would still trail by a wide margin. To say the least, Paladino, or any Republican, will have a very steep climb to unseat the popular Gillibrand.


Do you approve or disapprove of Kirsten Gillibrand's performance in the Senate?

Approve-57%
Disapprove-32%

Do you approve or disapprove of Chuck Schumer's performance in the Senate?

Approve-66%
Disapprove-26%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Carl Paladino?

Favorable-29%
Unfavorable-62%

Do you approve of Governor Cuomo's performance?

Yes-56%
No-36%

In the 2012 Senate election, would you support Kirsten Gillibrand (D) or Carl Paladino(R)?

Gillibrand(D)-63%
Paladino(R)-26%

In the 2012 Senate election, would you support Kirsten Gillibrand (D) or Chris Lee(R)?

Gillibrand-59%
Lee-29%

[Miles]

7 OCTOBER 2011




"It is with the greatest seriousness and dedication, and after much contemplation, that I have decided to seek the Republican nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election. I feel that I stand on a solid record of conservative values and experience that I feel uniquely qualifies me to be President of this great nation. As Speaker of the House, I stood up to radical left and big-government, tax-and-spend liberals. These individuals wanted to turn our precious republic into a communist state; again and again, the voters have rejected this. The conservative movement that I spearheaded in 1994 continues to resonate with everyday Americans, as seen by the rapid rise of the Tea Party. In 1994, the people of America took their country back from the brink of socialism. Unfortunately, much of the conservative gains of 1994 have been lost. Instead, these past few years have been dominated by bid-spending, government-loving Democrats and Republicans. This is why I have decided to run for the Presidency. In 2012, with a Gingrich Presidency, conservatism will make a comeback and it will save our Republic!"

[Miles]

10 OCTOBER 2011

PPP Report: Obama vs Gingrich, first look

Summary:

Despite Obama's approvals in the mid-40's, Newt Gingrich starts out with roughly a 90-electoral vote disadvantage. Gingrich would essentially put some swing states, like Florida, Ohio and Virginia, back into play and out of the Republican column. Most notably, Obama would likely see the rust-belt states 'come back' to him. Based on favorables, Gingrich isn't entirely apealing; outside of white conservative voters, he has very limited appeal.

PPP National Poll

_{(taken 10/7-10/09)}

Do you approve of Barack Obama's performance as President?

Yes-45%
No-49%

You have a favorable view of Newt Gingrich?

Yes-36%
No-53%

Do you consider Newt Gingrich to be a man of moral integrity?

Yes-35%
No-51%

If the candidates fro President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Obama-46%
Gingrich-39%

[Miles]

15 OCTOBER 2011

At  the sole debate of the Mississippi Gubernatorial election, both Taylor and Reeves come out swinging.




"I was victorious in the primary and I will win this election because I am the candidate who has been standing up for the conservative values of Mississippi voters. My opponent, on the other hand, has been in Washington for twenty years following the leadership of Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi's policies aren't good for the nation and they're certainly not good for Mississippi. My opponent likes to say he's been an independent voice, but we know that all he's done in Washington is help Pelosi, Obama and the liberal Democrat Party. The Democrats have pushed our national debt off the chart and have put our Treasury in a crisis. If you vote for me, I will not be sympathetic towards them as my opponent has been. Instead, I will continue the work of Governor Barbour and put Mississippi first." 




"Well, if you noticed, my opponent spends a lot of time talking about how bad Democrats are, but he doesn't talk a whole lot about his own record. The truth is, while I was in Congress, I voted against legislation that my own party pushed for because I knew it would be bad for Mississippi. I made sure that BP was held accountable for its damage to our Gulf Coast. I brought more funding to veterans programs. I made sure that our soldiers abroad had adequate equipment and funds. I pushed for repeal of NAFTA because its hurting our local industries. I've been an independent leader; for my opponent to claim that I've been a rubber stamp for Pelosi is just misleading and wrong."

[Miles]

Mississippi Aggregate Polling:

Taylor(D)-49.5%
Reeves(R)^-45.1%

Gallup Poll

_{(taken 10/14-10/17; among likely voters)}


Do you have a favorable opinion of Tate Reeves?

Yes-39%
No-50%

Would you consider Reeves to be moderate or extreme?

Moderate-37%
Extreme-53%

Do you have a favorable opinion of Gene Taylor?

Yes-54%
No-38%

Would you consider Taylor to be moderate or extreme?

Moderate-63%
Extreme-30%


Do you approve of Haley Barbour's job performance?

Yes-57%
No-35%

Who do you plan on voting for in November?

Taylor-48%
Reeves-44%

[Miles]

17-21 OCTOBER 2011

Retirements:

TOM CARPER

"Next year, I will not be a candidate for reelection in the state of Delaware. Instead, I will retire to focus on my family and I will serve the people of my state in other capacities. I feel that after serving 2 terms as its Governor and 2 terms as its Senator, my time as an elected official is nearly complete."

KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON

"At this point in my Senate career, I feel that it is time that I step aside. As the most senior Republican woman in the Senate, I have been able to legislatively achieve for the state of Texas during my 18 years here. Simply put, I'd like to spend more time with my family and I feel that I have served my fair share of time in the Senate on behalf of the people of Texas."



Candidate Announcements

CLINT DIDIER

"In 2010, Washington state elected liberal Democrat Patty Murray. In 2012 Maria Cantwell, an even more liberal Senator will be up for election. On behalf of the people of Washington, I will be standing up to Senator Cantwell. In2012, she will be punished for her record of choosing choice over life and putting Washington DC above Washington state."

DAVE HEINEMAN

"I will be challenging Senator Ben Nelson in 2012. As a Senator, Nelson's policies have embarrassed and hurt Nebraska. In 2012, I was reelected with nearly 75% of the vote; I take this as a sign that the people of Nebraska overwhelmingly approve of my policies and my approach to leading. Knowing that, I decided to run for Senate"Nebraska needs another Senator that puts its people above his shady backroom Beltway friends. In 2013, I look forward to joining our Republican Senator, Mike Johanns, in Washington.

JEAN SCHMIDT

"Ohio, despite its center-right leanings, elected one of the most liberal legislators in Congress in 2006, Sherrod Brown. In 2010, Ohioans chose Republicans. Governor Strickland lost and Democrats lost 5 Ohio House seats.  In 2012, Ohio will reject Brown's liberalism as well! In Congress, I have worked to promote economic success, fiscal responsibility and life. These are principles that liberal  Sherrod Brown opposes. Brown is bad for Ohio and he must be replaced."


AND FINALLY...




"My friends, 2010 was a rough year for Democrats. No one knows that better than me! From north to south, Democrats struggled. Not this year. My friends, the lessons of my 2010 campaign will only boost the effort of my 2012 campaign.
I'd like to thank Senator Herb Kohl. I worked with Herb for 18 years and I know that he went to work every day with the state of Wisconsin in mind. In 2012, I'd like to continue Herb's wonderful job and build on projects that I started during my time in the Senate.
After my previous campaigns, I can truly say that I am prepared for anything the right has to throw at me!
As your Senator, I held meetings in every county, regardless of how right or left they leaned. Oddly, my preprocessor, Ron Johnson, has not done this. In the Seante, Ron has not stood up Wall Street and the big banks as I did. This is why we cannot left Herb's seat fall into the hands of another Republican!
On to 2012!!!"

[Miles]

LATE OCTOBER

Miscellaneous Senate Polling

GALLUP GENERIC BALLOT:
Republican-46%
Democratic-42%

Elway Research: Washington Senate Poll
Cantwell*-55%
Dider-34%

Rasmussen: Nebraska Senate Poll
Heineman-58%
Nelson*-32%

Columbus Dispatch: Ohio Senate Poll
Brown*-44%
Schmidt-36%

Mason-Dixon: Nevada Senate Poll
Titus-41%
Ensign*-40%

Marist College: New York Senate Poll
Gillibrand*-59%
Paladino-30%

PPP: Texas Senate Poll
Generic R^: 52%
Generic D: 41%

Susquehanna: Florida Democratic Primary Poll
Crist-52%
Meek-36%

Critical Insights: Maine-Snowe GOP Primary Favorables
Favorable-36%
Unfavorable-53%

PPP: Wisconsin-Feingold Favorables
Favorable- 50%
Unfavorable- 38%

SUSA: Hawaii- Akaka Favorables
Favorable-60%
Unfavorable-33%

[Miles]

28 OCTOBER 2011

As the 2012 campaign season approaches, the lives of most Americans have not improved. Most families are in the same shape that they were in before the 2008 election; many are also worse off. This economic stagnation and lack to direction has given me reason to run for President in 2012. Therefore, I will be seeking the Republican nomination to replace Barack Obama as President in 2012.

Because I served as Governor of a blue state, I feel that I have developed the bispartisan and open problem solving skills that are needed to move America forward in these rough years. As Governor, I worked with people of both parties, as well as independents, to get results for the people of my state. At the same time, I remained to my conservative values of fiscal restriction, efficient government and social moderation.

I have no doubt that as Governor, I annoyed many on the far-right. This wing of the Republican party will probably be working against me in the primary as well. However, I am confident  that I will prevail because I believe that their is still room for those who truly want to solve America's problems and get our nation back on track. However, I share their believe that the extreme left is ruining our country; because of liberal extremism, our nation will be worse off for our future generations than it was for us. In 2012, I have no doubt that these liberals will be put out of power.

As of now, I know that I will be facing Speaker Newt Gingrich in the Republican primary. I look forward to an substantive debate with Newt and any other Republicans enter this race.Finally,  to win, I will need to build a coalition of moderate and conservative voters. Thus, I am calling on moderates, independents and conservatives to examine my record and to vote Mitt Romney in 2012.

[Miles]

OBAMA VS ROMNEY
Cumulative Electoral Map

[Miles]

PRESIDENTIAL POLLS


PPP
Obama: 45%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 46%
Gingrich: 38%

Quinnipiac
Obama: 43%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 44%
Gingrich: 39%

Survey USA
Obama: 44%
Romney: 41%

Obama: 45%
Gingrich: 40%

Rasmussen
Romney:46%
Obama: 42%

Obama: 43%
Gingrich: 41%

[Miles]

PPP-2012 US SENATORS APPROVAL RATINGS

Gray denotes retiring Senator



*-UT numbers are based off of responses of likely Republican Convention delegates

[Miles]

I love excel

No, I'm still thinking about it. I was thinking about maybe Terrance Wall or maybe Tim Michels (his 2004 opponent). I'm going to keep Paul Ryan in the House. I might give him a higher leadership post just to make sure he stays in the House and doesn't challenge Feingold.

I'll post more Wisconsin polls soon.

[Miles]

OCTOBER 29 2011

Three days out from the 2011 Gubernatorial Elections, pollsters are putting out their final projections. Here is where the races stand heading into the final weekend:

KENTUCKY

PPP
Beshear-53%
Williams-44%

Quinnipiac
Beshear-54%
Williams-44%

SurveyUSA
Beshear-56%
Williams-42%

Mason-Dixon
Beshear-55%
Williams-43%

538.com:
Beshear-55.1%
Williams-44.9%

RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

LOUISIANA

PPP
Jindal-59%
Cazayoux-37%

Quinnipiac
Jindal-60%
Cazayoux-36%

Survey USA
Jindal-61%
Cazayoux-35%

Mason-Dixon
Jindal-59%
Cazayoux-36%

538.com:
Jindal-60.2%
Cazayoux-36.3%

OVERALL RATING: SAFE REPUBLICAN

MISSISSIPPI

PPP
Taylor-51%
Reeves-47%

Quinnipiac
Taylor-50%
Reeves-48%

SurveyUSA
Taylor-52%
Reeves-47%

Mason-Dixion
Taylor-52%
Reeves-47%

538.com:
Taylor-52.3%
Reeves-47.7%

OVERALL RATING: SLIGHT DEMOCRATIC

[Miles]

1 NOVEMBER 2011

2011 ELECTION DAY

In mid-afternoon, exit polls confirm what most major pollsters have predicted:

KENTUCKY
Beshear*-55%
Williams-45%

LOUISIANA
Jindal*-60%
Cazayoux-38%

MISSISSIPPI
Taylor-52%
Reeves^-48%

[Miles]

1 NOVEMBER 2011

ELECTION NIGHT

KENTUCKY

2 hours after voting precincts began reporting, Steve Beshear opens with a wide lead of better than 14 points. Despite Kentucky's Republican trend and Obama's poor approvals, the race is quickly called in favor of Beshear.


WITH 60% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING...

[Miles]

1 NOVEMBER 2011

ELECTION NIGHT

LOUISIANA

With a majority of precincts in, Republican governor Bobby Jindal handily wins a second term. The AP projects a Jindal landslide.


WITH 55% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING...





 

[Miles]

1 NOVEMBER 2011

ELECTION NIGHT

MISSISSIPPI

In a the most competitive race of this season, Dixiecrat Gene Taylor opens with a narrow lead over tea party favorite Tate Reeves. Throughout the race, Taylor was considered a slight favorite due to a harsh Republican primary. The AP maintains that this election is too close to call.



WITH 58% OF PRECINCTS IN...




MISSISSIPPI COUNTY WINNERS

-Red and Blue counties have at least 85% of precincts reporting
-Dark Gray counties have partial returns
-Light Gray counties have no returns