2011 and Beyond... (user search)
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March 29, 2024, 01:25:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2011 and Beyond... (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 137174 times)
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #25 on: July 12, 2011, 09:04:18 PM »

R-O-M-N-E-Y!!!!
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2011, 09:00:22 AM »

Two can play this game. Tongue
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2011, 11:14:00 AM »

Wink
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2011, 07:38:10 PM »

One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! Tongue Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2011, 09:56:35 PM »

One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! Tongue Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.

I had to give you something to call me out on Wink
And here I was, being so nice and giving Landrieu a victory in my timeline...Sad

*Runs to edit results*
Wink
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2011, 10:36:02 PM »

In Missouri, how can some counties not be reporting for the Presidential race but have numbers for Senate and Governor?
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #31 on: July 23, 2011, 11:34:04 PM »

Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #32 on: July 24, 2011, 01:21:52 AM »

Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state Wink

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!

This is what I meant - Tomblin beating Ireland, while Democrats taking all House seats. Tongue You probably would have given Obama West Virginia too if not for the fact it's totally implausible. Wink

Good to see Goodwin back, though.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #33 on: July 28, 2011, 09:35:47 PM »

Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! Wink

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...Tongue
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #34 on: July 30, 2011, 03:05:25 PM »

Strange Results - GOP wins Ohio but can't win Tennessee or Virginia.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2011, 04:26:13 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2011, 04:27:49 PM by Tmthforu94 »

Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. Wink Not even LBJ could win it in `64.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2011, 08:51:45 PM »

I noticed I've been nitpicking a lot. Tongue Just so you know, AMAZING JOB, Miles! Smiley
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #37 on: August 08, 2011, 02:29:09 PM »

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'
Cheesy
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2011, 12:18:31 PM »

Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Assuming the Pacific Northwest will go Democratic, Romney needs all three of North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to win. (I'm counting Alaska as being in the Romney column already).

However, if Romney can flip Oregon (can he?) his path to 270 becomes that much easier. The problem is that of this quartet, all four states are trending Democratic. Romney shouldn't give up hope yet; he can still pull this out.
Ah, since it was shaded, I thought Nevada and North Carolina had already been called, so I thought it was pretty much impossible for Romney to win. Looks like it's still plausible.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2011, 03:01:10 PM »

Boo! Sad
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #40 on: September 11, 2011, 12:37:25 PM »

Excited!

Warner has stated several times how unhappy he's been in the Senate due to the lack of compromise and bitterness there. Personally, I don't see him running for reelection, especially if he would be in a competitive race.

Fun fact I noticed a while back - the last Virginia Governor who didn't later run for Senate was Douglas Wilder. He ran for Mayor instead. Tongue
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #41 on: September 11, 2011, 12:54:14 PM »

I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?
He ran for both President and Senate, but both runs were short lived. I'm only considering runs that actually ended in defeat/victory. Wink
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #42 on: October 08, 2011, 11:53:16 PM »

Why am I not surprised Grimes is running? Tongue
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