2011 and Beyond...

[Miles]

Fixed.

[Miles]

Are the ones with the 30%type shading being counted?

No; the results from those states are still pending.

I told Julio this the other day, but just so that everyone knows: I had some hardware issues with my laptop. Until I get a new part for it, about 4-8 days, I can't update the TL. I'm working off the campus computers, but all my maps are on my laptop .

[Miles]

I'd love to see Oregon go for Romney. Miles are you going use new California congressional districts for your TL since I know originally you were keeping the 2001-2011 ones intact?

Yes, I am. Only 1 district will be flipping though.

[Miles]

...

I'm still waiting on a computer part!!!

I'll see what I can post on the LSU campus computers. I just tend to be a perfectionist when it comes to this stuff, so I'd like to have access to the maps/editing programs on my laptop.

[Miles]

Expect an update later today.

I still don't have the darn part for my laptop

I'll have results from WA, OR, CA and HI. 'Obviously good news for Obama.

[Miles]

Rachel: As election night rolls on, we have results from the west coast. Of course, this region has been swinging towards the Democrats for the last few decades, so team blue can certainly breath a sigh of relief as these numbers come in. We start in the Evergreen State, Washington. Even though Washington state was ground zero for the 1994 GOP wave, as Republicans picked up 6 House seats there, Democrats did fairly well there in 2010, despite a grim outlook in other states; they held onto the state's Congressional delegation and Senator Patty Murray won by a surprisingly comfortable margin, almost 5%. Overall, Washington is another good area for the President again, he'll be winning there by 11 points. Also, Senator Maria Cantwell routes here opponent, John Koster.
The Republicans, however, will be taking the Governorship.  Governor Chris Gregoire was never well-liked to begin with, but still sought a third term anyway. As you may recall, she even lost the jungle primary a few months ago. AG Rob McKenna was always considered a favorite to win overall, and he will be winning despite an otherwise unfavorable climate for his party statewide.



Chris: Some of Gregoire's opponents even called here the "Wicked Witch of the Northwest"! Anyway, moving to Oregon, we have a fairly simple story. Obama will be winning there by about 10 points. Even though, the Romney camp made a better-than-expected effort there, no one was realistically expecting him to win there.

Rachel: California was also largely uncontested by either candidate. While the President will not be repeating his 24-point trouncing of McCain, he still will win the state by about 18 points. Even as other larger states have soured on the President, he always polled very well there and his party even made gains there in 2010.
In the Senate race, we can report another lopsided victory. Sn Fransisco attorney Kamala Harris defeats tea party Republican Chuck DeVore by over 20 points for Diane Feinstein's old seat. Some are already comparing Harris to a "female Barack Obama." She'll really be a rising star in Democratic politics.
Finally, in the House, we only have one seat changing hands. Dr. Ami Bera will ousting Congressman Dan Lungren. Bera was also seen as a rising star in Democratic politics. Despite his loss in 2010, he was a bright spot for House Democrats; not many doctors are running as Democrats!

Chris: Finally, we have the President's home, Hawaii. He will be crushing Romney with just over 70% of the vote. We also had quite an add Senate race. Senator Dan Akaka faced an Independent challenge from conservative Democrat Ed Case. Still, Akaka, who is popular, also had overwhelming Obama coattails in his favor. Case will be losing that race by almost 30 points. Case tried to build a coalition with Republicans, but Republicans in Hawaii are fairly hard to find...

[Miles]

Hey, did you do Colorado yet?

No. Actually, I'm not quite sure why I haven't done CO yet...

I'll have it in my next (and likely final) batch of results.

[Miles]

I'm glad someone noticed the music!

I'll try to have an update by next weekend.

Basically, all thats left is NC, CO, NV and the ND Senate race.

[Miles]

LAST CONGRESSIONAL RACES CEMENT CONTROL OF CHAMBERS

Chris: We have two more important Congressional races to report, but still, it looks like both parties will retain their respective chamber of the US Congress.

Rachel: Thats right. In our last major Senate call, Senator Conrad will actually be retaining his seat. It looks like his adds emphasizing his seniority and clout on key Committees has payed off. Still, this was by far the closest Senate race in recent North Dakota history. Considering Conrad beat Dalrymple by almost 2-to-1 in 1992, my hat is off to Dalrymple for coming so close to winning tonight.

Finally, our last critical House race was in Colorado. In the newly-drawn 4th district, former Congresswoman Betsey Markey makes a comeback by defeating tea party Republican Ken Buck. Even though Buck was able to raise millions of dollars, mostly from national tea party groups and conservative interests, he was still seen as unelectable by many in this district.

Chris: So, as far as the Congressional bottom lines, here are our final numbers for tonight. While Democrats netted 19 seats in the House, Speaker John Boehner will be holding on to his gavel. Boehner will oversee 223 seats to 212 for Minority Leader Pelosi. It will be interesting to watch the coalitions that Boehner will need to form in order to pass key legislation.
In the Senate, we will have 53 Democrats to 47 Republicans.

SENATE DELEGATION MAP



SENATE ROSTER

New members bold and italicized

[Miles]

OBAMA PROJECTED WINNER

Rachel: With the AP calling the three states of Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina, we can call the race for President Obama. With these three states, the tally in the Electoral College will stand at 280 for the President as opposed to 258 for the Governor.

Colorado was the only swing state to elect both a Democratic Senator and Governor last year, so Democrats invested heavily in retaining Colorado's 9 electoral votes. Colorado's very popular Governor, John Hickenlooper, was also a string supporter and campaigner for Obama. We can see those efforts paying off tonight as the President pulls out a 5-point win in this battleground state.

In Nevada, the President is clinging onto a 3-point lead, and the AP projects that the outcome of this race will not turn out in the Governor's favor. While the slow economy there was a drag on Obama, the Democratic turnout effort here was second to none; we saw this with Senate Leader Harry Reid in 2010. President Obama racked up 58% in Clarke County, Las Vegas, and Governor Romney could not make up for that elsewhere.

Chris: Finally, despite all the effort Democrats put into North Carolina, such as  hosting the DNC, Obama's dozens of campaign stops there, the millions of dollars the national party spent there, the President will be losing the state by about one-point. This comes as something of a consolation prize to the Romney campaign, a quite a few poll showed him trailing there and the Obama campaign emphasized North Carolina so greatly.

Finally, we don't have any actual returns from Alaska, but based on just exit polling, the AP is calling it for Romney.

Rachel: Well, no doubt this has been a landmark, crazy and exciting night to be an American political reporter. With the status quo largely preserved in both in the halls of Congress and in the White House, in which direction will our nation policies go now? At MSNBC we look forward to covering the 2nd part of President Obama's Administration for the next four years. For now though, I'm Rachel Maddow, signing off!

Chris: And I'm Chris Matthews!

OBAMA- 280
ROMNEY- 258

[Miles]

I think I'll be skipping straight to 2014 after this. In 2013, Christie wins reelection and Tom Perriello wins an upset in VA.

Now on to the midterms!

[Miles]

1. What did Obama do in years 5 and 6?
2. What happened in the NYC mayoral election?

1- I'll get to that later.
2-Weiner wins. The Weiner-gate scandal never happened in my TL.

[Miles]

Fantastic, Obama won =)

I'd like to know the margin of Perriello's victory, however

Thanks, Miles. continue soon, please!

Perriello upsets Cuccinelli by a few hundred votes, just like he did with Virgil Goode.

[Miles]

This also kinda goes with 2013....


NC DELEGATION EYES NEW COURT-DRAWN MAP





Today the new Congressional map of North Carolina was unveiled after more than a year of litigation. When the Democratic State House could not agree with the Republican Senate on Congressional maps, the process was sent to the courts. Specifically, the State Supreme Court took over the process of redrawing the state’s 13 House districts. The Chief Justice, Sarah Parker, along with 2 Associate Justices, Mark Martin and Patricia Timmons-Goodson, were largely charged with drawing the new districts. “Our main goals were to preserve communities of interest and create compact seats while ensuring that minorities have adequate representation. Unlike the party leaders in the General Assembly, we did not consider the partisan impacts of our lines.”; Martin went on “North Carolina has a history of virulently gerrymandered districts. North Carolina may be the most litigated state in the country, in terms of redistricting; that reflects badly on our people. We tried to change that by creating clean districts.” Chief Justice Parker said that she “fully expects the new lines to be in place for the 2014 midterms.”

In terms of partisanship, pundits project the map will result in 7 seats that are “Safe” or “Likely” wins for either party while the other 6 could become competitive under certain circumstances. While the electoral outcome of the new map is similar to the current iteration, a few NC’s individual Congressman may need to do some geopolitical maneuvering.

In the northeastern portion of the state, G.K Butterfield’s district, which lost over 100,000 people since the last round of redistricting, reaches westward to swallow Durham.  Interestingly, this was a feature of the map proposed by Assembly Republicans. Still, Butterfield himself has endorsed the new seat. “It protects the voting rights of our minorities and does not leave any significant black populations in a Republican district.” Roughly 51% of the registered voters there are black.

The new second district keeps its anchor, GOP-leaning Johnston County, but also takes in most of northern Wake County. Overall, the district maintains a slight Democratic lean, voting 50.9% for President Obama in 2012.Its incumbent, Elaine Marshall, finds herself drawn into the neighboring 13th district. Still, many expect Marshall to run in the new 2nd; NC political pollster Tom Jensen says “She’s had 18 years a statewide official; name recognition should not be a problem for her in any of these districts. It would make sense for her to run in the new 2nd. She’d start out as the favorite.”

Walter Jones’ 3rd district becomes slightly more compact and remains largely unchanged. It gave about 60% of its vote to Governor Romney in 2012. Most expect Jones, a moderate Republican, to have no problem holding it.

In shedding Durham to the new 1st and much of its Wake county territory to the new 13th, David Price’s 4th now extends to Greensboro and hugs the Virginia border. Even though most wanted Wake county to have only 2 districts, the 4th maintains a small tendril of Wake to include NC State University. “We wanted the 4th to represent the interests of the Research Triangle.  It now includes NC State, Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill” Martin said. “These institutions will have a unified Congressional voice in Representative Price. Using his clout, he will be able to steer appropriate funding towards these three great universities” Martin said. “This may be the most highly-educated district in the country!” Obama won the 4th by 59-40 in 2012.

Virginia Foxx’s 5th is still nestled in the northwestern corner of the state. It shed much of its Triad area in order to take in counties near Foxx’s residence. Giving Governor Romney almost 64%, this is a very safe GOP seat.

The new 6th would become a much more urban seat, consisting of most of central Winston-Salem and Greensboro. Without a viable district in the Research Triangle, most expect Congressman Brad Miller to run here, despite his general lack of clout in local politics. “He was raised in Fayetteville, he’s represented Raleigh in the State Senate and Congress and now it looks like he’ll have to move to the Triad.  Is there a region of the state where Congressman Miller doesn’t have a connection to!?” Jensen joked. Still, while Miller’s current 13th does have a portion of Greensboro, most of this district would be new to him; he could be vulnerable in a primary. Specifically, 2010 Senate candidate Cal Cunningham is considering a run here, should Miller decide to run elsewhere. The winner of the Democratic primary would be favored, as this seat gave Obama 56% last year.

The 7th district keeps its general configuration in southeastern NC. While the district gave President Obama only 45% to Romney’s 54%, Congressman Mike McIntyre, a conservative Democrat, should hold it fairly easily, even though he barley lives within the confines of this new seat. “We wanted to use as many whole counties as possible for this district” Chief Justice Parker said. “In splitting Robeson, that standard was otherwise fulfilled.”  Historically, this is a deeply Democratic seat; the last time the 7th district of North Carolina sent a Republican to the US Congress was in 1868.

Congressman Larry Kissell of Biscoe would keep a slightly Democratic-leaning seat. Giving Obama 52% last year, some observers consider this to be a swing district; still, despite Republican efforts to unseat him, Kissell has proven to be an especially formidable campaigner.
 
Sue Myrick of Charlotte will be among the safest incumbents in Congress. In 2010, she won with almost 70% in a 54% McCain seat; now, she will hold a 60% Romney seat based in the southern and eastern Charlotte suburbs.  Congressman Patrick McHenry is similarly as safe as he ever was. The Gaston County Congressman will take a 63% Romney district that will encompass the western and northern Charlotte exurbs.  

Congressman Heath Shuler would find his district virtually unchanged “The 11th district was already a fairly logical and compact seat” Martin announced. “Therefore, the 11th was largely insulated from any changes, other than minor line tweaks.” Despite Governor Romney’s 7% margin here, this district is more competitive on the local level and the conservative Shuler is very popular.

Perhaps the most radical change that this map presented was the elimination of the so-called ‘NC-12 Snake.’ “We thought that a district based entirely in Mecklenburg County was more than reasonable” said Martin. “Rather than splitting his time and effort between major three cities, Congressman Watt can focus exclusively on representing the people of Charlotte.”  As for partisan concerns, the 12th district will still be strongly Democratic, though less so than its previous iteration; it would have given Obama 66% in 2012, as opposed to 71% in its serpentine shape back in 2008.

Finally, the 13th occupies a good swath of central NC and most of southern Wake County.  Representative Elaine Marshall would live there, but most expect her to run in the neighboring 2nd. With the dean of the delegation, Congressman Howard Coble, retiring, former Congresswoman Renee Ellmers is said to mulling a comeback, though its unclear as to how crowded the GOP field will be.

“In the final analysis, we feel that we have created a map that features compact seats and strengthens communities of interest” the 3 Justices said in a joint statement.



District Stats:

[Miles]

November 2013

LOOKING TO MIDTERMS, EPIC SENATE MATCH-UPS COULD EMERGE

_{Senators Warner, Collins, Landrieu and LoBiondo could find themselves in tough races next year.}

Politico-  While political observers had quite a spectacle this year with Governor Tom Perriello's surprise win in Virginia and Governor Chris Christie's win over New Jersey Senate Leader Steve Sweeney, next year will be even more promising for political enthusiasts. In 2012, Democrats held  a 53-47 Senate majority while the GOP held their majority in the People's House. With the President's approvals breaking roughly even, 48% approving with 49% disapproving reports PPP, and Congressional approval gradually rising, political statistician Nate Silver says that large changes within Congress are unlikely next year. "We shouldn't expect a sizmic power shift next year. Republicans will not have a 2006-style beatdown; similarly, Democrats are unlikely to experience a 2010-esque bloodbath."

Still, operatives for both parties are eyeing total Congressional control. DSCC Chair Xavier Bacerra says that a Democratic House comeback could very well be in the cards. "After 4 years of Speaker Boehner's polarizing and ineffective style, I think its fair to say that the American people want better. We House Democrats look forward to being back in the majority come 2015 and so we can finally end the political stagnation." House Majority Leader Eric Cantor takes another stance. "By giving the gavel to my good friend Speaker Boehner, the American people sent a message; they want a balanced and responsible approach to governing. Thats what we as Republicans have tried to do. As a country, we can't afford to return to free-spending, and unrestrained days of Speaker Pelosi."

There will also be many high-profile Senate races. Thanks to big gains in 2008, Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid will be defending 20 seats to only 13 for Minority Leader McConnell.  "Of course Americans are sick and tired of a Democratic Senate" said RSCC Chair Richard Burr. "Republicans have a solid opportunity to flip up to 9 seats next year. That would give us a strong 56-44 Majority. Senate  Democrats will not have the advantage of having an unpopular President to run against, as they did back in 2008. In fact, President Obama may actually be working against some Democrats." DSCC leader Patty Murray suggested otherwise "American voters approved of the job Senate Democrats were doing back in 2012 and I fully expect them to again. In the Senate, Democrats have been focused on ushering forward jobs agenda that we feel will help millions of Americans."

Most political pundits are already predicting which Senate races will be most competitive.

In Virginia, outgoing Governor Bob McDonnell is said to be weighing a run against Senator Mark Warner. "McDonnell is a fine Governor and he has a strong record as a legislator" said Burr. Still, even with McDonnell, Virginia could be an uphill climb for Republicans. Warner's latest numbers showed 53% approving of his job to only 31% giving him bad marks; McDonnell was given favorable reviews himself, with 51% approving and 38% disapproving of his tenure.

Republicans are also targeting Mary Landrieu, who is among the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. She already has one opponent in former Congressman Jeff Landry; Landry is  positioning himself a the tea party's choice. "Landrieu had been voting for big government her entire career. Louisiana is a Republican state and it deserves a true conservative. Senator Landrieu will pretend to a moderate, but when push comes to shove, she will vote with her more liberal colleagues." Murray says otherwise "I don't know why the people of Louisiana would want want to throw away Mary's 18 years of clout in the Senate. From defending the Gulf Coast, to protecting small businesses, Mary wakes up every day with the goal of moving her state forward." Other possible Republicans include Congressman Charles Boustany and Bill Cassidy. Governor Jindal, a rising star in GOP politics said that he is "leaning against" a Senate run. Landrieu's last approval was 44/40; she also led Landry 43-36.

On the other side, Democrats think that they could pick up a few seats. In Maine, Congressman Mike Michaud looks to be gearing up towards challenging Senator Susan Collins. "I can assure you that Democrats will not be picking up a seat from Maine next year" Burr maintained. "Susan does a fantastic job of representing her constituents. Her legislative style reflects the independent spirit of her people." Democrats say that Michaud could be competitive. Collins posts a 55/33 approval rating and leads Michaud 53-40 in hypothetical polling. "She's still strong, but her numbers now are worse than the 24-points she won by in 2008" said pollster Tom Jensen. "Collins' lead isn't insurmountable, but Mainers are quite fond of both their Senators." Senator Olympia Snowe stands at a 59/29 approval rating.

A more winnable race for Democrats could be that in New Jersey. Senator Frank LoBiondo held onto his seat despite President Obama's 12-point win. Like Collins in Maine, LoBiondo retains a good amount of personal popularity, which helps his prospects in this blue-leaning state. PPP pegged his approvals at 50/38. Even so, Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts posted similar numbers in 2011, but went on to lose by 6.
Ironically, LoBiondo's biggest challenge may come from his right; he's carved out a niche as a liberal Republican, supporting Democrats on many environmental and social policies. "I've tried to bring moderation to the Republican caucus. I take the best ideas from both parties to get results for the people of New Jersey. I don't see whats so controversial about that." Tea party groups are trying to draft Governor Christie, somewhat of a conservative firebrand, to run in the Republican primary. Christie has since ruled out running. "Look, I appointed Frank. There's no chance I'd run against him. I appointed him in the first place because I knew he'd be an effective Senator. Here in Trenton, I have my hands full already." Conservatives may find a better candidate in former Congressman Jon Runyan, who said he'd "consider" running for Senate again. On the Democratic side, progressives are eyeing Congressman Rush Holt. Holt trails LoBiondo 45-40 but leads Runyan 43-37. In primary polling, Christie narrowly leads LoBiondo 41-39 but LoBiondo would hold a 53-36 lead over Runyan.

[Miles]

We'll see!!

Anyway, now that school is back in full swing for me, I'll probably update the TL on a weekend-to-weekend basis.

[Miles]

I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?

He's at 40/51 approval in KY.

Some of KY's Democratic statewide officials may be prepping to run for his seat...

[Miles]

SHE'S BACK!!!

Politico- Today, in her home town of Wasilla, Alaska, former Governor Sarah Palin announced that she will seek elected office again: this time, to the US Senate. "I'm very proud of the campaign we ran for President. My team put forward a great effort and we received millions of votes, but in the end, we fell just short of the Nomination. Even though Republicans came very close to winning back in 2012 we still have a President who is imposing crushing regulations on our businesses and destroying the future of our future generations. Until 2016, that will sadly still be the case. In the meantime, all kinds of Americans have been asking me "Sarah, why don't you run again!? Please run again!" Well, this outpouring of support has truly been humbling. The more I thought about it, the more I realized that I could not just sit back while President Obama and Senate Leader Harry Reid bankrupt our county and spend away America's greatness. Thats what's motivated me and thats while I'll be running for US Senate in these upcoming midterm elections."

She went on "I know that I will have the full backing of many patriotic groups such as the Tea Party Express and FreedomWorks, as well as my own SarahPAC. In the last midterm elections, these groups raised millions to elect Constitutional Conservatives and we were able to take back the House.  From New Mexico to Maine, conservatives were able to make unprecedented gains in all across the country, not only in Congress, but also at the more local levels. Well, this time I'm throwing my own hat into the ring!"

Palin also took a few swipes at her opponent, Senator Mark Begich. "Now for being ruggedly  conservative state, Alaska has a two liberal Senators in Washington. Senator Begich pretends to be a moderate, independent-minded legislator, but in the end, he will vote with Harry Reid and the liberals. He voted for the stimulus package which did next to nothing for us in Alaska and wasted hundreds billions. He also voted this President's healthcare take-over. We can't afford that! If I'm elected, I will bring a fresh, conservative perspective to the US Senate where Senator Begich has failed."

Almost immediately after Palin announced her candidacy, Alaska's senior Senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski, endorsed her junior colleague. Despite their separate party affiliations, this move came as no surprise to those familiar with Alaska politics. "There's a well-known animosity between the Palins and Murkowskis which has only been exacerbated through the years" said one of Rep. Don Young's aides. Starting in 2006, Palin ousted Murkowski's father in a primary and in 2010, Palin played a key role in Murkowski's 2010 Senate primary loss. I don't think "dislike" would be a good word for their relationship; "disdain" would probably more appropriate."

"The people of Alaska should, and I believe that they ultimately will, have the good sense to avoid partisan politicians like Sarah Palin. Its clear that after walking out on the job during her first term and then failing at the national level, Governor Palin is heading back to Alaska in hopes that she can convince voters to give her another chance at leading. Senator Begich and I have worked to find solutions for Alaskans, not by tearing others down and demonizing those we disagree with, but by bringing everyone together. That's why I'll be endorsing my friend Mark for reelection." Begich's office put out a statement saying he looks forward to reelection regardless of who his opponent is. "Senator Begich sees this as a good opportunity to contrast his common-sense and centrist legislative approach to the extremist views of Governor Palin" his spokesperson said.

Tom Jense of PPP explained the statistical aspects of Palin's race; "Palin isn't particularly popular, but her negatives have gone down" said Jensen. "Last month, we found that 40% of Alaskans have a favorable view to Palin to 48% who see her negatively. That may not sound stellar, but its much better than the 36/58 spread we found her at during the lowest point of her Prediential campaign. The trend is in here favor." As far as the actual Republican primary, the news gets better for Palin; 55% of Alaska Republicans want her as their nominee to just 32% who 'definitely' want someone else.

With both Palin and Begich heavily favored to win their primaries, the general election would start out a tossup. "Begich would post a 44-41 lead. What could be worrisome for Begich is that he posts sub-par numbers himself; only 37% are happy with his job to 45% who aren't. Still, the fact that Begich is leading in a state where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats is pretty impressive." Murkowski fares better, holding a positive 47/36 approval rating. "Murkowski's endorsement could be a big help to Begich. Her popularity could be an asset to him" Jensen concluded "Just like 2008 and 2010, we can expect the Alaska Senate race this year to be nail bitter."

[Miles]

Begich is a Blue Dog, though. (Though chances are you're sarcastic)

I'd love to see Palin lose to, say, Sean Parnell in the primary.

Probably would to...

Parnell has ruled out a Senate run and he's running for Governor again; I should have mentioned that in the article.

[Miles]

MCCONNELL OUT, T-PAW IN



The Senate Republicans will be electing a new floor leader at the beginning of the 114th Congress; their Leader, Mitch McConnell will not be seeking a 6th term. The Kentucky lawmaker said that "there comes a time in all our careers where it just seems logical and right to set aside. I think that this just happens to be my time. Elaine and I have just decided that this is the right time. While I look forward to leading my caucus through this last year or so,  I'll always stand behind what Senate Republicans were able to accomplish under my tenure."

Still, weak numbers at home could have been a driving factor towards McConnell's decision. Only 40% of Kentucky voters approve of his job while 51% disagree. He had 2 potential opponents who were seriously considering  challenging him. KY Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, seen as a rising star in state politics, and Congressman Ben Chandler could have given McConnell a tough race; in the polls, he only led Grimes 43-41 and he ran slightly behind Chandler at 45-42. In purely hypothetical polling, he would trail Governor Steve Beshear 51-41; the popular Governor has ruled out running for Senate.

Of the Democrats, Grimes seems more enthusiastic about mounting a Senate run. "In 2012, Kentucky elections were among the smoothest and mus budget-efficient in the country. In the two and a half years since I have been Secretary of State, we have heavily invested to combat voter fraud. My record speaks for itself and I think Kentucky voters would agree with me." Grimes posts a 41/27 job approval rating and Chandler has a similar 42/29 favorable rating. Potential Republicans who could hold McConnell's seat include Congressman Brett Guthrie and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer. 

Top Senate Republicans are already trying to whip votes from their colleagues in the upcoming contest to fill McConnell's place as caucus leader. The two front-runners likely to emerge are Senators John Thune and Jon Kyl. After Thune's Vice-Presidential run in 2012, he has accumulated tangible clout among the Republican establishment. Also, Thune said that he'd be "inclined against" a future Presidential run, meaning that he sees himself hanging around the Senate for a while. Kyl would be the more logical and conventional choice, but has indicated that he may not be interested in seeking McConnell's job.

In Minnesota, Senator Betty McCollum has drawn a top-tier challenger in former Governor Tim Pawlenty. McCollum was appointed in 2011 after the death of Senator Al Franken. In 2012, she won the seat in her own right with 53% of the vote against another strong opponent, former Senator Norm Coleman. However, in 2012 both Minnesota seats were up for election and McCollum was buoyed by her downballot position from the very popular Senator Amy Klobuchar, who won with 66%. Before then, McCollum represented a heavily Democratic St. Paul district in the House.

"The bottom line is that Senator McCollum has not been an independent voice for our state. I've served the people of Minnesota for 8 years and I've been going around the state listening to their concerns and needs. They want a real leader for them in Washington who won't just be a rubber stamp for the President. Senator McCollum is not that leader. During her time in the House, she voted with Nancy Pelosi on virtually everything and she is maintaining a similarly far-left liberal record in the Senate. As Minnesotans, we can do better. That's why I'm running for US Senate. As a Senator, I will work to lower our national debt and create a sustainable jobs outlook not through loyalty to my party, but by bringing mt own solutions to the table."

Senator McCollum's campaign released a statement blasting Pawlenty. "From protecting the rich to restricting woman's rights, Governor Pawlenty's record points in one direction: backward. If elected, Pawlenty will work with the far-right Congressional Republicans to turn back the clock on what Congressional Democrats have accomplished, such as affordable healthcare for all Americans."

SurveyUSA's last poll has McCollum and Pawlenty tied at 44% apiece.  Similarly, Minnesotans are pretty equally divided on both candidates; McCollum has a neutral 43/39 job approval rating to Palwnety's 44/41 favorable rating. Senator Amy Klobuchar stands at 62/25 and Governor Dayton is on positive ground at 50/42.

[Miles]

PROGRESSIVES DRAFT BAUCUS PRIMARY OUSTER

Montana liberals have found a candidate to run against Senator Max Baucus; Montana Superintendent of Education Denise Juneau will be challenging the 6-term Senator. Juneau said that "Montana working families are being left behind and no longer will their votes be taken for granted. I've seen this first-hand as I've steered our educational system; too many of our students come from families that are struggling to get by. That needs to stop. While Senator Baucus has garnered clout during his 36 years in Washington, it seems that too often he forgets the real and obvious struggles that face Montanans every day. Our state needs a new voice and a Senator that isn't entrenched in Beltway culture. "

Adam Green, the chairman of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, was instrumental in drafting Juneau. "At the PCCC, we're committed to electing candidates committed to taking bold progressive values to Washington. We're thrilled that Denise is running in Montana. She has an impeccable record with educational issues and, as one of Native American heritage herself, she has worked tirelessly to bring educational and economic opportunity to the Native American community. Senator Baucus, by contrast,  is one of the worst corporate Democrats in Washington. Montanans deserve better than a Republican masquerading as a Democrat; that's truly what Senator Baucus has become. Just look at his disastrous tenure as Chairman of the Finance Committee; his healthcare bill was everything the Republicans could ask for, it was a total giveaway to the very corporations that stuff Baucus' pockets. In the Senate, Denise will support progressive legislation that will truly and tangibly help the middle class, not just the rich."

When asked who he'd be endorsing, or even if he'd run for Senate, Congressman Brian Schweitzer supported Baucus. "There's no chance I'll run for Senate. I'm quite happy where I am. In the House, along with my friend Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming, I try to bring a unique westerner's perspective to our caucus. Senator Baucus has been in tough races before and he's prevailed. I don't think this will be any different." 53% are happy with his performance in Congress while 34% aren't.

The numbers are not in Baucus' favor. According to PPP, only 41% approve of his job to 52% who disagree. "Numbers like tht are bad, but aren't insurmountable" says Tom Jensen. "Baucus has had quite a fall from grace since he was reelected in 2008 with 72%. 'No question that his lead role in the healthcare debate was toxic." The Republican frontrunner is Steve Daines, who lost to Senator Jon Tester by 13 points in 2012. "Still, despite that loss, he remains competitive; I don't think Daines' 2012 loss will be an indicator for his 2014 performance. First, Tester is considerably more popular than Baucus and was a much harder opponent, as Tester stands at a very healthy 56/38 spread. Second, Daines was never unpopular, his own numbers are positive at 36/29."

Going into 2014, Daines would start out with a 43-39 lead over Baucus and he'd be up 40-38 on Juneau. "This should be the Juneau campaign's central argument: despite her more liberal positions, she actually does better in the general election. As of now, she has an electability advantage." For comparison, Schweitzer would post a 55-32 lead over Daines.  

If there is a glimmer of hope for Baucus, its that he's on good terms with Montana Democrats...for now. 60% of Democrats approve of his job while only 33% don't. "Still" Jensen says "Mike Castle and Lisa Murkowski had similar numbers with their own parties going into 2010."

[Miles]

Why am I not surprised Grimes is running?

I'm a huge fan of her's

Not that my personal opinion will influence the outcome or anything...

[Miles]

Sorry that I'm egregiously behind on this, but I'll have an update up in a few days.

[Miles]

Retirements shake Senate Democratic Caucus

Just as Senator Mitch McConnell’s retirement threatens cause intra-party upheaval on the GOP side, three top Democrats announced their retirements as well, sending shockwaves through the Democratic Caucus. For decades, Senators Jay Rockefeller, Carl Levin and Dick Durbin have been among the greatest power players in their caucus; this week, this trio announced that they would not seek reelection ahead of the 2014 midterms. Still, all three remain popular in their states. “Going forward, this will definitely mean that some of our newer members will be able to move up through the leadership ranks and make names for themselves” said one Democratic source “still, the policies and legislation that Dick, Jay and Carl have crafted over the years have been central to our party’s message. They’ll all be missed.”

In Illinois, Senator Durbin iterated his need to “spend more time with his family,” though he said that he’d stay active in local politics as well as national party causes. “After my time in the Senate, I will not stop working for the Democratic Party and I will keep working for a better Illinois.” Durbin’s approval rating is at a strong 52% with 35% disapproving. The popular Illinois Attorney General, Lisa Madigan has hinted at running in a possible open-seat contest and she may now have her chance. DSCC Chair Patty Murray seemed confident that the party would ultimately hold Durbin’s seat “We’ve learned from our mistakes in 2010; I assure you, Illinois will not be sending another Republican to the US Senate,” as she alluded to Senator Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican who was able to defeat a very flawed opponent to win President Obama’s old Illinois Senate seat. “Dick has been an excellent representative of his state throughout his career. I’m very excited about the possibly of Lisa Madigan.” No major Republicans have yet to emerge. President Obama remains decent ground in his home state with 51% approving of his job to 40% who don’t.

While Illinois may be easy for Democrats to maintain, West Virginia and Michigan may be harder. “While West Virginia is a Democratic state, it’s also a very conservative state” said RSCC Chair Richard Burr. “During his last term, Senator Rockefeller skewed far to the left of his state with regards to healthcare and fiscal matters. I think the people of West Virginia would agree with me. That’s probably why Jay retired.”
Rockefeller latest approval rating was 50% with 39% not approving; still, President Obama remains deeply disliked among West Virginians, as only 31% like him to 59% who don’t. Rockefeller, along with Senator Joe Manchin, along with Congressmen Mike Oliverio and Nick Rahall, endorsed Congressman Carte Goodwin for Senate. “Our state is ready for a younger generation of leaders like Carte. In the Senate, I was impressed with his diligent work, even if it was only on an interim basis. During his time in the Senate, he continued the good work of his predecessor, our dear Senator Robert Byrd. In the House, he has been a strong voice for his district and the people of central West Virginia. That’s why I’m endorsing him; while I may be leaving the Senate, with Carte, I can leave the people of West Virginia in good hands.”
While the GOP has had a historically weak bench in West Virginia, party leaders have coalesced around Bill Maloney; a conservative businessman. Former Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito has ruled out a run.

Finally, of the trio, the contest for Levin’s seat may be the most challenging for Democrats. Despite President Obama’s win in 2012, his approval lukewarm, at a 45/44 spread; Senator Debbie Stabenow, who won a competitive 2012 race, is better off, at 49/38. On both sides, the primaries are expected to be competitive. Republican Congressman Thad McCotter is gearing up to face off against fellow Representative Justin Amash. Amash, a tea party candidate, is expected to run to the right of the establishment McCotter. Rather than seeking the open seat himself, former Rep. Pete Hoeskstra, who lost to Stabenow, is now the Chair of the state Republican Party; he’s expected to back McCotter. On the Democratic side, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero is set to run against former Congressman Gary Peters, who was a redistricting victim in 2012. Neither Levin nor the state party is endorsing in the primary.

MSNBC's Chuck Todd offered his analysis, "Overall, 2014 looks to be a troublesome year for senior Democrats. In addition to these three retirements, Senator Max Baucus is facing a serious primary from his left in Montana." He added "don't forget that Senator Tim Johnson has not announced his election plans. South Dakota would be a very hard state to hold for Democrats. Finally, we knowthat three senior Democrats Senators, Kerry, Harkin and Landrieu are running for reelection."

[Miles]

MORE SENATE RETIREMENTS: ALEXANDER, INHOFE, MERKLEY OUT, JOHNSON STAYS IN



Ahead of the midterms, three more Senators announced that they would be forgoing reelection. (This should be all the retirements...)

In Tennessee, 2-term Senator Lamar Alexander, said that he will be retiring in 2014. Alexander considered to be another key player in the GOP caucus, serving as Caucus Conference Chair. Alexander citied the slow Senatorial process in his speech. "During my time as Governor of Tennessee, I took direct and decisive actions to help the people of my state. In the Senate,  there is no such sense of urgency and intent. Throughout my terms here, that is what has most frustrated me. The process here is more engineered towards making quick deals and ignoring real debate rather than actually helping the American people."
The Republicans remain favored to hold Alexander's seat. Senator Bob Corker, who lost his primary in 2012, could be a possible candidate. Representatives Marsha Blackburn and Steven Fincher are also mulling bids. Democrats control Tennessee's other seat, with Senator Bart Gordon; its unlikely that they'd swipe both seats.

Inhofe cited his old age, 78, as his main reason for retirement. As with Tennessee, Republicans have a strong head start here. President Obama's approvals are at a horrendous 27/61 in Oklahoma. "The President would damage any Democratic there beyond repair" said RSCC Chair Richard Burr "this seat should be safely in Republican hands. The Republican party has never been stronger in Oklahoma." The Republican frontrunner is Governor Mary Fallin, who has declared her candidacy; she has a favorable 53/37 approval rating. The only 2 Democrats whop could be competitive would be former Governor Brad Henry and Congressman Dan Boren. Henry, who has a strong 55/33 favorable rating, is expected to seek his old job back.
Still, Fallin would start strong; she'd lead Henry, if he ran for Senate, by 48-44 and Boren by 47-41.

While freshman Democrat Jeff Merkley is retiring, he sees his retirement as more of a 'job transfer.' When the Governor of Oregon, John Kitzhaber, announced that he would not seek a 4th term, Merkley said that he would run for Governor rather than a second Senate term. In his speech, Merkley shared many of Alexander's frustrations with the Senate. "In 2008, the people of Oregon sent e to Washington to help implement bold changes. While I value every day I spend here representing them, the Senate itself is not geared towards progress. I think I can better serve the the people of Oregon in the Governor's office."

Democratic strategists breathed a sigh of relief when Senator Tim Johnson announced his plans to seek a 4th term. Johnson remains personally popular in an otherwise Republican-leaning state. Former Governor Mike Rounds, a Republican, is considering a race. Pollster Tom Jensen said "Democrats are very lucky Johnson is running again; he leads Rounds 49-40. While South Dakota is still not a slam-dunk for Democrats, Johnson is very formidable. By comparison, if he had decided to retire, Rounds would be up 52-34 in an open-seat contest against a generic Democrat. The distinction is obvious, a Johnson retirement would have been devastating to Democrats" Jensen added "In an open-seat contest, Rounds would have led former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin by a slimmer 48-43. Finally, if Rep. Kristi Noem were to run against Johnson, she'd start out trailing 50-40." Herseth-Sandlin has ruled out running for elected office in 2014.

In addition to these retirements, several Republicans face competitive primaries. Senator Jeff Sessions (AL), Pat Roberts (KS) and Lindsay Graham (SC) all face primaries to their right. Only one Democrat, Max Baucus (MT), has drawn a strong primary opponent.

Sessions faces tea party challenger Rick Barber, who ran for Congress in 2010. While Sessions has carved out a prominent profile as a leading conservative on the Judiciary Committee, Parker maintains that Sessions "at one time probably had our state's best interests at heart, he has become nothing more than a rank-and-file Republican, entrenched in Washington culture and special interest."

Senator Pat Roberts faces GOP House frosh Tim Huelskamp. Huelskamp was one of dozens of tea party freshmen swept in during the 2010 elections. Kansas' other Senator, Jerry  Moran, is backing Roberts. Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express have endorsed Huelskamp.

Senator Graham has been on the tea party 'traitor list' for quite a while. Talk show hosts, such as Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, have labeled Grahama as a 'weak, McCain RINO.' "Guber-Lindsay Graham voted for the bailout, he worked with Barbara Boxer on climate and he voted for both of Obama radical Supreme Court justices" said Levin. "Does this man sound like a Republican to you!? If we conservatives are going to take back our country, its not gonna be with sellouts like this! He's a Charlie Crist-type phony!" In fact, there is strong speculation that Graham may actually run as an independent. His fellow Senator, Jim DeMint, has endorsed Rep. Mick Mulvaney over Graham. In primary polling, Mulvaney leads Graham 52-43.

Open Seat Map




538.com 2014 Senate Ratings