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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #100 on: February 02, 2011, 01:40:52 AM »
« edited: February 02, 2011, 01:54:10 AM by MilesC56 »

10 FEBRUARY 2012

Today, we have our first look at the 2012 House election.

The pollsters PPP, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University have compiled a cumulative polling map of all 435 districts.

District Ratings are based on incumbent approvals, district PVI's and hypothetical match-ups.



Analysis:

"Our initial House map finds 197 districts in Democratic hands and 218 districts where the GOP is favored; 20 districts are purely tossups. Thus, the Republicans are starting this election cycle with the bare minimum number of seats needed to keep the House. In order for Speaker Boehner to lose his gavel, Democrats must sweep every "Swing" district and win one additional Republican district. Thats a tall order. We recommend that Democrats steer more funds towards keeping their Senate majority, as it is very unlikely that they will retake the House, at least for now.

However, there is some good news for Democrats. As a result of redistricting, unpopularity, or otherwise, 7 House incumbents are set to lose their seats, only 1 is a Democrat:

-Cravaack-MN
-Dold-IL
-Walsh-IL
-Harris-MD
-Farenthold-TX

-Donnelly-IN
-Meehan-PA

Also, Democrats are in a strong position to pick up two open seats; as Sean Duffy is running for Senate, Dems are likely to reclaim David Obey's seat. Also, Democrats are looking good to take the old House seat of Sen. Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey.

At least for now the GOP is probably going to retain the House, but a lot can change between now and November."


FULL SIZE HOUSE MAP:
http://postimage.org/image/2c182fyw4/full/
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #101 on: February 02, 2011, 01:43:10 PM »

Great, but one question: Why would the Oklahoma legislature make Boren's district safer than it currently is? They don't have much to lose by trying to gerrymander him out, considering all of the other districts in the state are very Republican.

I had KS21 do OK for me.

Here's his response:

"Boren is a dynastic name and Boren's father (the popular former Senator) is the haed of OU. The name recognition alone gives him a substantial advantage over a GOP challenger regardless of how his district is designed."

I'd agree. Regardless of where his district is in eastern OK, he'd still be personally popular and he'd have name recognition.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #102 on: February 02, 2011, 09:18:04 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2011, 02:21:03 AM by MilesC56 »

Late January Senate Polls:



Competitive Races:


Races not likely to be competitive:
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #103 on: February 04, 2011, 02:26:03 PM »

EARLY FEBRUARY 2012

This month we have our final few Senate retirements. Two more Democrats have announced that they will not seek reelection. While these retirements are big news, neither of them is likely to put the Democrat's majority in jeopardy.

Popular 5-term New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman, Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, will not be seeking a 6th term. While this is an unusual move for such a powerful Chairman, Bingaman acknowledged that he wanted to step down in order to "better focus on solving America's energy problems while promoting environmentally green solutions." The Senator said that he would be better positioned to do this in some other capacity then as a Senator, although he singled that he would not move to K Street. Some are speculating that President Obama will appoint him to a high-level position within the Department of Energy or the EPA.
In the race to replace him, popular Congressman Ben Ray Lujan said that he would be interested in running should Bingaman retire. Lujan will be running against Pete Domeinici Jr, the son of a former NM Senator. Still, Democrats don't have much to worry about here; Lujan is polling quite strongly.


In Virginia, freshman Senator Jim Webb will not be seeking a second term. Webb maintained that the legislative process was to slow, citing the "languid and often frustrating nature of the Senate." To replace Webb, Democrats have drafted DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, a popular former governor. Kaine will be running against former Sen. George Allen, who lost his seat to Webb in the Democratic wave of 2006. Most polls show Kaine ahead of Allen.


SurveyUSA Polls:

NM:
Lujan- 53%
Domeinici- 38%

VA:
Kaine- 50%
Allen- 45%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #104 on: February 04, 2011, 09:06:21 PM »

9 FEBRUARY 2012

After the departure of Defense Secretary Robert Gates, President Obama makes some major cabinet changes...


 
"Now, I would like to start off today by thanking Secretary Gates for his long career of service to this nation. His vast knowledge of policy and his grasp of issues, both political and administrative will certainly be missed and difficult to replace. Our next Secretary will have a strong performance to follow. For now, Gordon English will be the acting Secretary of Defense and I look forward to working with him in these next few months.
That said, today I want to lay out my future plans for the Department of Defense. Of course, my plans are contingent on my reelection; which I can assure you, I will be working quite diligently on!
For my second term, I will be appointing our current Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, to lead the Defense Department. Secretary Clinton has done an excellent job in her capacity as Secretary of State and I feel that our Defense Department will benefit from her strong record of legislative and diplomatic strength. While Secretary Gates, incoming Secretary English and myself have been working to mold a more sustainable and financially solid Department of Defense, I feel that Secretary Clinton is best fit to continue our work, as well as to carry out the other duties required for that office. Simply put, Secretary Clinton's impressive resume and her experience makes her quite suited for this office and I look forward to her work.
Now, for the State Department. Starting in January of 2013, Vice President Joe Biden will be leading that Department. Joe has been one of the leading voices in American foreign policy for decades. Joe's work on the Foreign Relations Committee has made him one of the foremost American actors on the international stage. From the Balkans to Iraq, fro  Europe to Afghanistan, Joe has seen it all. Thats why I chose him to be America's new international face."


...which means Obama will need a new VP in 2012.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #105 on: February 05, 2011, 04:30:37 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2011, 10:10:19 PM by MilesC56 »

Before I get to Super Tuesday, lets look at Obama's approval ratings, just to see how he's faring.

Approval by state:



NET APPROVAL SCALE


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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #106 on: February 05, 2011, 10:02:25 PM »

How does  Obama have  +1 in NC, a normally R state yet have -10 in Ohio? Just curious.
Unemployment rate:

    Jan. 2011   Jan. 2012
OH    9.3%            9.2%
NC    9.6%            8.2%

estimated Democratic spending so far:
OH: 1.4 Million
NC: 2.7 Million
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #107 on: February 05, 2011, 10:07:30 PM »

A nitpick: Indiana is lighter than Ohio despite having worse approvals.

Tongue This is very detailed. I like it!

Thanks Isaac! You're always here to pick out my mistakes!! hahaha

I think OH is actually too dark.

I'll fix it.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #108 on: February 08, 2011, 01:19:48 AM »

14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY

Tonight, I'll start rolling out results from Super Tuesday, I'll be doing this over the course of a few nights.

Lets begin!

♫(election music playing)♫

Our first state to be reporting will be Alabama, where Mike Huckabee has won a decisive victory. Huckabee had the backing of Governor Bentley and his predecessor, Bob Riley.


Huckabee-51%
Palin-36%
Romney-12%

Our next state will be Arkansas, Huckabee's home state. As to be expected, Huck sweeps every county.


Huckabee-61%
Palin-24%
Romney-14%

Team Romney scores a victory in Delaware. Despite the efforts of tea party leader Christine O'Donnell on behalf of Palin, the tea party has left a sour taste in the mouths of DE Republicans.


Romney-52%
Palin-38%
Huckabee-9%

Huckabee, extending his winning streak in the south, will be carrying Georgia by a comfortable margin. After Gingrich dropped out, Governor Deal threw his clout to Huckabee and endorsed the former Arkansas Governor. Also, former Governor Sonny Purdue was one of Huckabee's first and foremost supporters this year. 


Huckabee-50%
Palin-35%
Romney-14%

While Huckabee dominates the south, Romney is strong in the west; he scores a wide victory at the Colorado caucus. Colorado was a bright spot for Romney in his 2008 campaign as well.


Romney-59%
Palin-30%
Huckabee-9%

Palin scores her first victory of the night with a win in Arizona. She had the endorsement of Governor Brewer and stumped with the Arizona Governor. Notably, she did campaign here with her former running mate, John McCain; while McCain has moved to the ideological right, he remains unpopular with the GOP base, thus, he would have been considered a drag on Palin.


Palin-53%
Romney-36%
Huckabee-10%

In Oklahoma, Huckabee has won a close race. Despite the presence of a "Mama Grizzly" in the statehouse, Team Huckabee invested heavily here from the beginning of th campaign season and it seems to have paid off .


Huckabee-42%
Palin-40%
Romney-18%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #109 on: February 08, 2011, 02:33:48 PM »

14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY PART II

We now have two New England states reporting. To nobody's surprise, Mitt Romney will be sweeping both his home state of Massachusetts as well as Connecticut.



Romney-60%
Palin-26%
Huckabee-13%


Romney-55%
Palin-30%
Huckabee-14%

Mike Huckabee will be scoring a victory in the Show-Me state; his rural appeal has delivered him the Missouri delegates.

Huckabee-45%
Palin-32%
Romney-23%

In Minnesota, Sarah Palin has had considerable help from Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Rep. Chip Cravaack. Thus, she will be winning Minnesota due to high turnout among tea partiers in Bachmann and Cravaack's districts.

Palin-42%
Romney-37%
Huckabee-21%

Despite the rightward drift of the Republican electorate in Utah, Mitt Romney will be sweeping this state as well. In 2008, he got nearly 90% of the vote here, this year, his performance in Utah was worse, but he will still win the state in a 65-point landslide.

Romney-79%
Palin-14%
Huckabee-7%

We can project that Romney can also add the Illinois delegates to his tally; in the campaign, both Huckabee and Palin seemed to prematurely concede IL to invest elsewhere. 

Romney-58%
Palin-22%
Huckabee-20%

In 2008, Mike Huckabee won Tennessee and he has done so again this year. Huckabee had the endorsement of the very popular Governor, Bill Haslam. Palin has the endorsement of 2 TN Representatives, Marsha Blackburn and Scott DesJarlias. While Blackburn's district is located in Huckabee territory, Palin was able to perform surprisingly well in DesJarlias' district. Romney was limited to Nashville.

Huckabee-50%
Palin-38%
Romney-12%

At the West Virginia Convention, Palin, with the help of Senate Candidate John Raese, will be winning a fairly close contest.

Palin-44%
Huckabee-41%
Romney-15%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #110 on: February 08, 2011, 02:40:10 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2011, 03:44:27 PM by MilesC56 »

Palin's absolutely crap performance on Super Tuesday brightens my fictional day. Cheesy

Its not over yet...Smiley

We still have about 6 states to go!


With 6 states left to go on Super Tuesday, Palin has fallen to third place.



(Dark gray states are Super Tuesday states that have not reported yet)

Romney-422
Huckabee-402
Palin-345

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #111 on: February 09, 2011, 09:49:20 PM »

14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY PART III



We begin with a surprise.Throughout this campaign, the Romney team has taken the state of New York for granted. Tonight it seems like an energized Upstate conservative base has helped Palin in New York; also lower turnout in the states urban centers has worked against Romney. We can conclude that New York's 90 delegates will be going to Palin.


Palin-43%
Romney-33%
Huckabee-23%

One state down in New Jersey, Palin seems to have done well as well; she has benefited from vote-splitting between the 2 more establishment Republicans. Governor Chrsitie was an early supporter of Palin. She will pull out a narrowly win here.


Palin-37%
Romney-33%
Huckabee-29%

Moving westward, Romney will be winning the trio of North Dakota, Montana and California. The very popular ND Senator John Hoeven endorsed Romney while in Montana Gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Denny Rehberg went for Palin but failed to deliver for her.



Romney-49%
Huckabee-29%
Palin-22%



Romney-40%
Palin-31%
Huckabee-28%



Romney-48%
Palin-36%
Huckabee-16%

Finally, what could be our most interesting result. Palin has won Alaska...barely. Projections have Romney within less than 1000 votes of Palin. Its seems that the 'home state effect' has saved her.


Palin-36.5%
Romney-36.4%
Huckabee-27%





Romney-645
Palin-511
Huckabee-402
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #112 on: February 10, 2011, 06:06:18 PM »

Looking at the next set of primaries...

KS Caucus
Palin-37%
Huckabee- 32%
Romney-20%

DC
Romney-56%
Palin-14%
Huckabee-11%

MD
Romney-51%
Palin-25%
Huckabee-16%

VA
Huckabee-35%
Palin-32%
Romney-18%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #113 on: February 10, 2011, 07:30:39 PM »

This primary is awesome. Pretty much anyone can win. Cheesy

Thats what I don't like about our primary system today. They're engineered so that a winner will be chosen as fast as possible. I'm trying to make it competitive!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #114 on: February 12, 2011, 11:16:45 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2011, 01:27:30 AM by MilesC56 »

19 FEBRUARY 2012

This Saturday night has not been kind to Mike Huckabee. Although Huck was leading in the Virginia primary polls, Sarah Palin will be pulling an upset tonight. Palin had the help of Gov. Bob McDonnell, a popular figure with conservatives.





Palin-45.1%
Huckabee-42.5%
Romney-11.7%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #115 on: February 12, 2011, 11:54:58 PM »

Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #116 on: February 13, 2011, 12:12:46 AM »

Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.

Oh, really?

Can someone help me with an explanation here??!! lol
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #117 on: February 13, 2011, 12:34:37 AM »

Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.

Oh, really?

Can someone help me with an explanation here??!! lol
Mitt Romney dropped out on February 7th, 2 days after Super Tuesday. Virginia's primary wasn't until the 12th.

Well, in any case, Palin has won Virginia!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #118 on: February 13, 2011, 12:56:51 PM »

Guys,

This week is gonna be hell week for me; I have three exams and extra hours at my job. I probably won't be able to post this week. I'll try to post sometime mid-week, but I can't make any promises.

Thank you all for your constant enthusiasm and support; it means the world to me!

'Miles
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #119 on: February 15, 2011, 12:01:55 PM »
« Edited: February 18, 2011, 01:15:38 AM by MilesC56 »

Updated Delegate Count



ROMNEY-699
PALIN-614
HUCKABEE-402
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #120 on: February 21, 2011, 06:34:14 PM »

21 FEBRUARY 2012

For the past weeks, Wisconsin was considered to be among the most competitive states in the GOP race. Tonight, it looks like Sarah Palin will be winning an expectedly narrow victory. Palin had help from Senator Ron Johnson and Governor Scott Walker, both figures are extremely popular with state conservatives.



Palin-34.9%
Romney-33.0%
Huckabee-30.1%


In Washington, Romney will be cruising to an easy victory.



Romney-54%
Palin-31%
Huckabee-15%

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #121 on: February 22, 2011, 12:13:20 PM »

UPDATED DELEGATE TALLY



ROMNEY-743
PALIN-656
HUCKABEE-402
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #122 on: February 22, 2011, 04:31:52 PM »

22 FEBRUARY 2012

As we approach the beginning of the last phase of the GOP primary, lets see how the three remaining Republicans poll against Obama nationally.

PPP and SurveyUSA:

While no Republican polls particuarly well against Obama, he is by no means guaranteed another term. Of course, polling will expectedly change once once a clear GOP President/Vice-President ticket emerges, but for now, here is where the candidates stand.

Map Key
>70%= Safe
>60%= Likely
>40%= Lean
>30%= Slight
Green= Tossup


Obama vs Romney

Our findings show that Obama leads Romney nationally by a 49-46 margin. Obama's job approval numbers are a timid 48/46, but Romney's favorables are only 43/40. Basically, if Romney were the nominee, we would see 7 states that would be pure tossups.
Romney is very competitive in the western states of CO and NV, as well as NH; Romney would force Democrats to spend money in these otherwise blue states. The Romney campaign has been investing heavily in OH, which accounts for his 49-45 lead there. In this scenario, Obama would have the edge in VA, NC and PA.

Obama-246
Romney-199



Obama vs Huckabee

While Huckabee would garner marginally less electoral votes than Romney and he would also push Obama closer to 270. Obama leads Huck nationally by a 48-44 margin.
Huckabee would make VA, NC and IA more competitive, as well as solidify MO into the GOP column. With Huckabee, the GOP looks like it would concede the western states NV, CO to Obama. Also, Huckabee has much less appeal in NH than Romney.

Obama-266
Huckabee-191



Obama vs Palin

If Palin were the Republican nominee, she would start out with a 13 point deficit, at 53-40. Obama would have a 3-to-1 electoral vote advantage. Palin posts a 34/58 favorability nationally and even more troubling for her is that independents break by a wide 64-26 margin in favor of Obama. Palin's numbers at home are even underwater; with 39/53 favorables, she can only lead Obama by a 47-44 margin.

Obama-388
Palin-125



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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #123 on: February 23, 2011, 09:09:14 PM »

I haven't posted any candidate announcements lately for the Congressional or Gubernatorial races in a while, so here we go:

Montana:


Next year we will see somewhat of a reshuffling of positions here. While Jon Tester is still running for Senate, Congressman Denny Rehberg will be running for Governor. To replace Rehberg, current Governor Brian Schweitzer will be running for the House. All three men are popular in the state and are ell expected to win against token opposition. Tester will be running against businessman Steve Daine; Rehberg will be facing AG Steve Bullock; Shcweitzer will be running against businessman Neil Livingstone.

Senate:
Tester-49%
Daines-38%

Governor:
Rehberg-55%
Bullock-37%

House
Schweitzer-59%
Livingstone-35%

Arizona:
Senator Jon Kyl will be seeking a 4th term. Former AG and 2010 candidate Terry Goddard will be challenging him. Kyl is in good shape. Boring.

Kyl-53%
Goddard-41%


Tennessee:


One of the most endangered Senators this cycle will be Bob Corker. Corker's main challenge will not necessarily be in the general election, but from within his own party's ranks. He has amassed a wide field of challengers who claim that they are more conservative than he is. His three main opponents are former Congressman Zach Wamp, musician Hank Williams and YouTube personality Basil Marceaux. Polling suggests that Corker is, in fact, vulnerable in the primary.
Democrats, seeing the writing on the wall, have recruited former Congressman Bart Gordon. While former Governor Phil Bredesen declined to run, Gordon should be a strong candidate in the event that Corker loses his primary; Gordon trails Corker, he is competitive with Wamp and leads Marceaux and Williams.

GOP Primary:
Corker-37%
Wamp-28%
Williams-15%
Marceaux-12%

Michigan:


Since the 2010 elections, Michigan's economy has improved moderately; this is partially due to a better-than-expected performance from the Big Three automakers and the increased quality and demand for American cars.It seems that the 2009 auto bailout is yielding metaphorical fruit here. Thus, the 2012 Michigan electorate will be less hostile to incumbents than the 2010 electorate.
Unemployment here has decreased from 12% to 9.2%. Thus, Republicans have less ammunition to use against incumbent Debbie Stabenow. Her foremost opponent will be Congressman Pete Hoeskstra; while Stabenow looked vulnerable in earlier years, her numbers have seen a rebound.

Stabenow-46%
Hoesktra- 40%

Delaware:


In Delaware, super-popular Governor Jack Markell will eschew a second term in the statehouse; rather, he will be running for Tom Carper's open Senate seat. Markell will be running against...you guessed it!...Christine O'Donnell! AG Beau Biden will be seeking a promotion to Governor; no Republicans have yet announced that they will be challenging Biden. In any case, Markell and Biden are assured victory.

Senate:
Markell-61%
O'Donnell-31%

Governor:
Biden-63%
Generic R- 28%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #124 on: February 23, 2011, 11:56:49 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2011, 03:30:39 PM by MilesC56 »

Candidate announcements/Congressional races continued....


West Virginia


West Virginia is looking to be one of the most interesting states this election cycle. This state will have a Senate race, a Gubernatorial race and two competitive House contests.
First, tea party favorite and Palin-backed 2010 candidate John Raese has struggled to gain traction against Senator Joe Manchin in a rematch. This is Raese's 4th Senate run and voters just aren't terribly enthused about his candidacy. Manchin has retained much of his popularity as he has moved from the WV statehouse to Washington D.C. Manchin maintains a wide lead.
Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is the favorite to become Governor in 2012. Governor Tomblin will not be seeking a second term. Capito has no clear opponent yet.
Former Senator Carte Goodwin will be running to replace Capito in the 2nd district. Goodwin will be facing perennial candidate Jay Wolfe. Manchin and Rockefeller are expected to be stumping for Goodwin.
In the first district, Rep. McKinley will be facing a competitive rematch with State Legislator Mike Oliverio. McKinley won by less than 1400 votes in 2010.
Congressman Nick Rahall is expected to cruise to victory in the 3rd district.

Senate:
Manchin-55%
Raese-34%

Governor:
Capito-58%
Generic D- 38%



Wyoming:


Despite the overwhelming GOP tilt of Wyoming, the state is set to have a competitive House race. Former Governor Dave Freudenthal will be challenging Rep. Cynthia Lummis. Freudenthal, while a Democrat, has an established reputation as a political moderate and a problem-solver; he remains extremely popular. Lummis has been accused by some to be out of touch with her constituents and she he been criticized for her infrequent visits to Wyoming.  

Colorado:

Here we will have an interesting House race as well. In the redistricted 4th district, Betsy Markey will be seeking a return to Washington D.C. In the redistricting session, the legislature made CO-05 a solidly GOP district while, in the process, making CO-04 into a true swing district. Markey will be running against 2010 Senate candidate Ken Buck.
During her term in Congress, Markey cast politically tough votes, such as votes in favor of healthcare reform and the stimulus package, that ultimately led to her defeat. Now, Democrats are hoping that the gaffe-prone Buck will be an easy opponent for Markey.
The 4th district is still based in northern-CO and now includes a greater portion of the Boulder-area.


Arkansas

Thanks to a redistricting by the Democratic legislature, Republican Tom Griffin is now vulnerable in the 2nd district. Griffin will be facing former Lt. Governor Bill Halter. The AR-02 now has an EVEN projected PVI , down from its previous R+5. Halter, while a progressive, is very popular on the personal level and is considered to be an excellent campaigner and fundraiser.


Minnesota:

Here, we have both a Senate race and a closely watched House race. Senator Amy Klobuachar is in solid shape with approvals approaching 60%. Her opponent will be Teresa Collett, who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Betty McCollum in 2010. Democrats have little to worry about here.
Klobuchar-60%
Collett-32%


On the House side, the race for the 8th Congressional district will be one of particular emotional and symbolic value for the DFL. Bill Richard, who served as Chief of Staff for the former Congressman Jim Oberstar, will be running to avenge his fallen boss. Rep. Chip Cravaack was able to pull a narrow upset here in 2010, mostly due to low turnout; this year, the DFL is making voter turnout, especially in St. Louis County, its top priority. Since the new district is relatively similar to the old one, the overall dynamics and demographics of the 8th district still lean Democratic.
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