US House Redistricting: Maryland

[minionofmidas]

It looks bearable only as long as you ignore where the population in the two western districts is.

[minionofmidas]

Here's the full beauty of my gerrymander.  Pardon my attention whoring, but I'm quite proud of district 5:

A while back, I came up with this, with three black-majority districts and four McCain districts:

CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 57% Black, 83% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 52-47 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 75% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 54-44 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): 52% Black, 83% Obama

Here's a zoomed in view of the beltway.

CD2 Cummings. Assuming he lives in the Black parts of the city. He wouldn't want the other two districts, anyways. Sarbanes also lives here and is forced out.
CD4 Van Hollen.
CD5 Harris.
CD6 Edwards.
CD7 Bartlett.
CD8 open seat for a new Black Dem.
So much so easy, but...
CD3 Frank Kratovil would try a comeback... though he'd *probably* lose against any decent eastern shore Republican.
CD1 Steny Hoyer and not much of a Republican bench. You'll need to add some more Republicans to overcome that.

As for Inks' districts, well they aren't numbered anywhere but
blue see above, CD3 (though it's more Republican, and thus safer)
teal Bartlett
purple Van Hollen
grey open seat; am I correct in thinking this'll be a "coalition" seat racewise?
red Edwards
green Mr Cummings I assume, once again. Or else open, what's the racial composition?
lavender Sarbanes. Harris lives here but has no chance. Cummings might be from here and have one though; what's the racial composition?
yellow Hoyer is the incumbent, and ought to run. Whether he could win... who knows. Probably not. Maybe if the R candidate is from the Baltimore part of the district, esp. if Harris tries to chicken run here, and we get a 2008 rerun.

[minionofmidas]

Yes actually, I see no reason why they wouldn't do something like Johnny's map. I see no real risks. Might want to marginally clean up Cummings' district. Remember that the Eastern Shore has far more history of being connected to Annapolis than exurban Baltimore.

[minionofmidas]

Guys, here are my thoughts about MD for what they are worth. In MD, moderate Pubbies have shown that they can cut into Dem strength. MD has a lot of swing voters, all those GS 12's government workers and above living in Montgomery County and the like.

These people last voted Republican, on any state or federal level, a dozen years ago. R's have no more chance of a comeback there than D's in Harlan County.

[minionofmidas]

Johnny already posted a map with six seats safe for Democrats even by your inflated requirements, and the seventh leaning their way (though I know what would happen in an Eastern Shore R versus Western Shore D race there) anyways.... though you're right that Cummings has reason to want more than 51% Black. Though Edwards doesn't... but has one in that map anyways.

[minionofmidas]

Torie's admitted that his Wisconsin mapquest was just a wet dream that isn't going to happen; just not in the thread itself.

[minionofmidas]

What happens if District of Columbia residents vote in Maryland elections like they have in the past, and Maryland (+DC) is apportioned a 9th representative?

They get a third black-majority district based in DC and everything else pretty much stays the same.

Also, Texas loses its 36th district, or NC gains a 14th.

[minionofmidas]

As long as it's just Cecil, it might do.

Then again, it's not clear whether it's actually in their best interests to do it. You want that district to nominate a moderateish Eastern Shore Democrat who can breeze through the general, not some Liberal from Howard County against whom the Eastern Shore Republican outperforms generic R.

[minionofmidas]

Cecil is basically Philly/Wilmington, DE exurbs. Don't see it as part of the Eastern Shore at all.

Locals tend to do, though.

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, Hoyer's constituency is getting really really disgusting.

[minionofmidas]

Yes it is. Intra-state water connections so count. (it's closer to being continuous than Velazquez' or Nadler's or Bobby Scott's district.)

[minionofmidas]

I love how you pretend as if the 4th or the 7th aren't gerrymandered.

A fair map would probably result in a 5-2-1 map.

Actually it would probably be 4-2-2.  The Democrats would have 2 uber-safe Seats in baltimore and PGC, 2 safe seats in Montgomery and Howard County +Rest of Montgomery/PGC.  The Republicans would have 2 Safe Seats in the Eastern Shore and the Western panhandle.

There would probably be two swing seats: 1 around the Baltimore Suburbs (Republican or Democratic leaning depending on where the baltimore proper districts grabs its extra 100,000 people) and one like the current 5th but with the PGC county part cut out in favor of Central/Northern Anne Arundel county.

Quite, though it makes for a much prettier map if you throw in South Maryland with the Eastern Shore and make the remaining seat firmly Anne-Arundel-based. Though I'd consider it 4-1-3 bordering on 4-2-2... actually 4-4 if a lead is a lead, though.



1 (Eastern Shore - South Maryland) 76% White, 17% Black, 54-44 McCain. Hoyer
2 (North of Baltimore) 72% White, 17% Black, 49-49 McCain. Harris, Ruppersberger, Sarbanes
3 (Baltimore and Black suburbs to the west) 67% Black, 24% White, 88-11 Obama. Cummings
4 (Anne Arundel with southern Baltimore County) 73% White, 15% Black, 50-48 McCain. open
5 (Prince George's) 71% Black, 14% White, 89-10 Obama. Edwards
6 (parts of PG's, Montgomery and Howard) 36% White, 28% Black, 22% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 76-23 Obama. Van Hollen
7 (West Montgomery - Ellicott City) 59% White, 16% Asian, 12% Hispanic, 11% Black, 65-34 Obama. open
8 (North and Northwest) 85% White, 58-40 McCain. Bartlett

I drew the 6th and 7th with the intention of making the 6th a "coalition" district... Van Hollen's residence takes all the fun out of that though, so maybe we should draw one of them out of Howard. The 1st is not a good district for Hoyer... but it would be an excellent district for Kratovil, hence why I counted it as a swing rather than a Republican district.
I don't consider these high Black populations as "packed", because they actually live that packedly - none of these districts combines the Black parts of several different cities via Black rural areas a la the 7th Alabama.

[minionofmidas]

What be the racial percentages on that 8-0 map?

[minionofmidas]

It's obvious that the jump across the Chesapeake is not considered taboo. But, from a community of interest standpoint, what is the rationale for including a chunk of Anne Arundel County, as opposed to some of Baltimore County, with the Eastern Shore? Surely the case can be made that once Harford County is placed in the district, some of Baltimore County can be included as well?

Harford County should not be placed in the Eastern Shore district. Essentially, the Chesapeake should be pictured as splitting the state entirely, so that the post-2000 1st district is crossing the Chesapeake twice.
As to Annapolis, it's sort of maritime and it's where the crossing has been since I-don't-know-when. Pre OMOV decisions, I believe. It's not the place that makes the most sense, actually, though it does make more sense than uniting the Eastern Shore with the Baltimore Suburbs (or splitting it, gasp). That'd be Southern Maryland imho.

EDIT: I'll take Timothy's word on it that it's since the 70s.

[minionofmidas]

That (and the high growth) is because of the bridge to Annapolis. Cecil County isn't and neither is York PA. I assume the reason is that even more people from Cecil commute to PA than to Baltimore, even though far more people commute to Baltimore from there than from QA. And York would have a much lower percentage of commuters, obviously.

[minionofmidas]

Well, it's an ugly ass state.

[minionofmidas]

This one wasn't disgusting: (hint hint)

Non-Partisan:



CD1 (Blue): -46; 78.0% White; 57.0% McCain
CD2 (Orange): +56; 64.7% White; 54.2% Obama
CD3 (Lime): -62; 55.8% Black; 79.4% Obama
CD4 (Red) +9; 61.3% Black; 88.8% Obama
CD5 (Yellow): +58; 59.9% White; 59.0% Obama
CD6 (Green): +21; 79.3% White; 53.0% McCain
CD7 (Black): -42; 55.1% White; 60.2% Obama
CD8 (Violet): -4; 49.9% White plurality; 73.1% Obama

Summary:

2 strong majority (55%+) Black districts
1 majority-minority district, white plurality
5 strong majority (55%+) White districts
4 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) districts
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) district
1 lean republican (50%+ McCain) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district

Max. deviation 68/100, average deviation 38.500/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 4 counties split.

That Black district is disgusting.

(Well, not that of course, but it's not pretty.)

God, Baltimore County carveup in the leaked map is horrendous.

[minionofmidas]

Don't you dar call my districts ugly again, Lewis

You know why I did that.

Yeah the first is far uglier. I suspect it's because they're trying to preserve some of the current districts which are indeed hideous.

Or maybe the first map is only being floated to garner support for the second. That would be arch-macchiavellian.

[minionofmidas]

Hitchcock said the panel worked with “a delegation map that is currently convoluted in its configuration. Everyone wanted to do our best to correct that.”

Lol. Couldn't agree more to the first sentence, can't see any evidence of the latter.

[minionofmidas]

Lol.

[minionofmidas]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

If he knows what's good for him.

No real indication of that in his track record, though.

[minionofmidas]

Seventh-day Adventist as well.

Yes. That's a real reason to miss him.

[minionofmidas]

Who says Roscoe wants two solid GOP seats? Clearly he and the Blacks conspiring spells 7-1 with Harris replaced by a Black to me! (Seriously... would such a map be possible? Hoyer and Ruppersberger would probably have to take quite marginal districts and share the Eastern Shore between them.)

[minionofmidas]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.



Yep. Dead and buried.

You'd think they'd get her on board before going public...

[minionofmidas]

I decided to draw an MD map without looking at partisan or racial numbers and ignoring incumbant residences and came up with this.



MD-1: Eastern Shore McCain 57.1-Obama 40.9
MD-2: Baltimore Suburbs Obama 51.6-McCain 46.2
MD-3: Annapolis Obama 53.3-McCain 44.8
MD-4: Prince George's Obama 88.9-McCain 10.2 55.1% VAP Black
MD-5: Southern MD Obama 66.2-McCain 32.6 49.6 VAP White
MD-6: Panhandle McCain 55.6-Obama 42.4
MD-7: Baltimore Obama 87.5-McCain 11.3 61.7% VAP Black
MD-8: Montgomery Obama 70.5-McCain 28.0/color]

That looks more like a mild Dem gerry to me... what they might have done in 2000 if they had a conscience and no strong R incumbent in the 2nd district to worry about.

I've now understood why they're getting rid of Bartlett and not Harris despite the memories of 2008.
a) Harris district is near the marginal parts in Baltimore and AA. While it can be turned Democratic with some creative mapping, it can't be dismembered without angering and endangering several incumbents. Bartlett, meanwhile, borders the 8th which is unnecessarily packed with Democrats (which it is in order to get rid of Connie Morella).
b) Neither are strong incumbents. But Bartlett is old, and if he retired on the old lines, it wouldn't present a Dem opportunity, but an opportunity to get a stronger incumbent in there. Gotta prevent that. An opportunity to retarget Harris with some Eastern Shore moderate in a Dem-favorable year might reoccur yet, but 2012 isn't the year for it. (Actually, Harris will probably be too entrenched by then, but it's probably on the back of their minds anyhow.)
I needed to try and draw my leave-Bartlett-alone-and-turn-the-first-into-a-Black-district scenario to fully grasp that. (At the point where I ended it, Ruppersberger and Hoyer were at 53.odd Obama, and while the first was safely Democratic, it was still plurality White. While Edwards was below 50% Black.)