US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Linus Van Pelt]

What a gong show.

Anyway, assuming that 8-0 is not happening and that the real issue for the minorities is just the dilution of 4 and 7 (three black districts being mentioned only on the forum and not at all in any of krazen's links), the solution to all this mess is just for Cummings to take a little snake to PG, where there is, as it were, excess capacity. As a bonus, there are enough Dems left over in Baltimore to give Sarbanes and Ruppersberger vaguely normal-shaped districts.



1. eastern shore - 58.4 McCain
2. east Baltimore - 59.2 Obama
3. west Baltimore suburbs - 58.3 Obama. Probably could be made a little safer with weirder lines, or by slightly reducing the BVAP in 7.
4. inner PG - 57.7 BVAP, 83.6 Obama. No Anne Arundel here!
5. southern mainland - 61.2 Obama
6. new Monto-to-Appalachia district - 57.9 Obama
7. Baltimore southward - 55.5 BVAP, 77.1 Obama. Still with a majority clearly in the Baltimore metro.
8. DC suburbs northward - 60.3 Obama

[nclib]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bal-new-districts-chart,0,852399.htmlpage

Data.

Cool, but there appears to be a typo in the category "2010 pres." Obviously, that's incorrect, but does it mean 2008 Pres., or what?

[timothyinMD]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bal-new-districts-chart,0,852399.htmlpage

Data.

Cool, but there appears to be a typo in the category "2010 pres." Obviously, that's incorrect, but does it mean 2008 Pres., or what?

Obviously its 2008 Pres

[redcommander]

So since O'Malley's proposal is likely finished now, is there a chance the compact district proposal by Republicans has a chance?

[Brittain33]

So since O'Malley's proposal is likely finished now, is there a chance the compact district proposal by Republicans has a chance?

No.

[Brittain33]

O'Malley's follow-up map was leaked. Very minor changes.

[muon2]

O'Malley's follow-up map was leaked. Very minor changes.

This what the Baltimore Sun saw:

[Thomas D]

I may be getting a new congressman. But that map is a joke either way.

[TJ in Oregon]

O'Malley's follow-up map was leaked. Very minor changes.

This what the Baltimore Sun saw:

Wow... and people say the Ohio map looks bad.

[nclib]

I see the proposed MD-2 and MD-3 are better for Obama than the current ones. Is this just a mapping coincidence, or not?

[TJ in Oregon]

I decided to draw an MD map without looking at partisan or racial numbers and ignoring incumbant residences and came up with this.



MD-1: Eastern Shore McCain 57.1-Obama 40.9
MD-2: Baltimore Suburbs Obama 51.6-McCain 46.2
MD-3: Annapolis Obama 53.3-McCain 44.8
MD-4: Prince George's Obama 88.9-McCain 10.2 55.1% VAP Black
MD-5: Southern MD Obama 66.2-McCain 32.6 49.6 VAP White
MD-6: Panhandle McCain 55.6-Obama 42.4
MD-7: Baltimore Obama 87.5-McCain 11.3 61.7% VAP Black
MD-8: Montgomery Obama 70.5-McCain 28.0/color]

[redcommander]

O'Malley's follow-up map was leaked. Very minor changes.

This what the Baltimore Sun saw:

It looks disgusting. I hope Donna Edwards still has problems with it, because Marylanders shouldn't deserve a gerrymander like that.

[muon2]

Wow... and people say the Ohio map looks bad.

I think OH, IL, and NC can all take a back seat to this.

[Miles]

It looks disgusting. I hope Donna Edwards still has problems with it, because Marylanders shouldn't deserve a gerrymander like that.

I agree. If it was an 8-0 map, I could justify it more. But this is both ugly and inefficient.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

[minionofmidas]

I decided to draw an MD map without looking at partisan or racial numbers and ignoring incumbant residences and came up with this.



MD-1: Eastern Shore McCain 57.1-Obama 40.9
MD-2: Baltimore Suburbs Obama 51.6-McCain 46.2
MD-3: Annapolis Obama 53.3-McCain 44.8
MD-4: Prince George's Obama 88.9-McCain 10.2 55.1% VAP Black
MD-5: Southern MD Obama 66.2-McCain 32.6 49.6 VAP White
MD-6: Panhandle McCain 55.6-Obama 42.4
MD-7: Baltimore Obama 87.5-McCain 11.3 61.7% VAP Black
MD-8: Montgomery Obama 70.5-McCain 28.0/color]

That looks more like a mild Dem gerry to me... what they might have done in 2000 if they had a conscience and no strong R incumbent in the 2nd district to worry about.

I've now understood why they're getting rid of Bartlett and not Harris despite the memories of 2008.
a) Harris district is near the marginal parts in Baltimore and AA. While it can be turned Democratic with some creative mapping, it can't be dismembered without angering and endangering several incumbents. Bartlett, meanwhile, borders the 8th which is unnecessarily packed with Democrats (which it is in order to get rid of Connie Morella).
b) Neither are strong incumbents. But Bartlett is old, and if he retired on the old lines, it wouldn't present a Dem opportunity, but an opportunity to get a stronger incumbent in there. Gotta prevent that. An opportunity to retarget Harris with some Eastern Shore moderate in a Dem-favorable year might reoccur yet, but 2012 isn't the year for it. (Actually, Harris will probably be too entrenched by then, but it's probably on the back of their minds anyhow.)
I needed to try and draw my leave-Bartlett-alone-and-turn-the-first-into-a-Black-district scenario to fully grasp that. (At the point where I ended it, Ruppersberger and Hoyer were at 53.odd Obama, and while the first was safely Democratic, it was still plurality White. While Edwards was below 50% Black.)

[krazen1211]

SECTION 1. (a) The people reserve to themselves power known as The Referendum, by petition to have submitted to the registered voters of the State, to approve or reject at the polls, any Act, or part of any Act of the General Assembly, if approved by the Governor, or, if passed by the General Assembly over the veto of the Governor;



Hmm.

[Brittain33]

SECTION 1. (a) The people reserve to themselves power known as The Referendum, by petition to have submitted to the registered voters of the State, to approve or reject at the polls, any Act, or part of any Act of the General Assembly, if approved by the Governor, or, if passed by the General Assembly over the veto of the Governor;



Hmm.

What are the petition requirements for Maryland in terms of signatures? It would be a massive blow to the Dems if that happened, I agree. This map is so ugly I expect it would get defeated easily.

[timothyinMD]

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

[minionofmidas]

SECTION 1. (a) The people reserve to themselves power known as The Referendum, by petition to have submitted to the registered voters of the State, to approve or reject at the polls, any Act, or part of any Act of the General Assembly, if approved by the Governor, or, if passed by the General Assembly over the veto of the Governor;



Hmm.

What are the petition requirements for Maryland in terms of signatures?

Also, there's the major question of time schedules. Not all states have early primaries and filing deadlines. Maybe in Maryland there would be time to just pass a new cleaner map that is still a gerry.
I don't know any of that; it needs to be researched. -_-

[krazen1211]

http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/43const/html/16art16.html

The referendum petition against an Act or part of an Act passed by the General Assembly, shall be sufficient if signed by three percent of the qualified voters of the State of Maryland, calculated upon the whole number of votes cast for Governor at the last preceding Gubernatorial election, of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City, or of any one County.

If an Act is passed less than 45 days prior to June 1, it may not become effective sooner than 31 days after its passage. To bring this Act to referendum, the first one-third of the required number of signatures to a petition shall be submitted within 30 days after its passage. If the first one-third of the required number of signatures is submitted to the Secretary of State within 30 days after its passage, the time for the Act to take effect and for filing the remainder of the signatures to complete the petition shall be extended for an additional 30 days.



55,000 or so signatures.

[Brittain33]

of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City

That anachronism is kind of amusing and sad.

[timothyinMD]

of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City

That anachronism is kind of amusing and sad.

You omitted the rest of that sentence... "of Baltimore City, or any one County"

[minionofmidas]

of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City

That anachronism is kind of amusing and sad.

You omitted the rest of that sentence... "of Baltimore City, or any one County"

Still kind of amusing and sad. (And, given the very different county sizes and party strenghts, I wonder how it complies with OMOV. ) But Baltimore City used to be half of Maryland, a century ago.

[Brittain33]

of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City

That anachronism is kind of amusing and sad.

You omitted the rest of that sentence... "of Baltimore City, or any one County"

In retrospect, I did read too much into it--I assume it was structured that way because a long time ago Baltimore City did represent a huge proportion of the state as a whole and the rest of the state may have wanted to reduce its power, but that's not necessarily required by the language.