US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Torie]

All you need Inks is a GOP governor, and about 50 more Pubbies in the legislature or something, and your map may just see the light of day.

I might as well copy and paste my ramblings about MD that I dumped on the NC thread, because I was a naughty boy, here. By the way, when the intra County population numbers come in, in MD, they will have a distinct GOP lean. So shove all the numbers by as much as 75 basis points in the GOP direction:

Well having played with the MD map a bit, I think the best the Dems can expect to do is make one of the 2 Pubbie CD's marginal, and they may not get even that far (I got down to making MD-06 a 50% McCain district, before things started getting messy), and to get to even that point,  MD-08 had to take in Annapolis and part of the Eastern Shore, so things are starting to get really bizarre. Is Van Hollen really going to want that done with his CD, particularly given that he is a partisan high profile Dem assigned to be one of their chief attack dogs, and political strategists, when it won't really in all likelihood knock off another Pubbie anyway?  I suspect not. So I am going to keep MD at no change on my redistricting score card list for the present.  I might change my mind; I doubt it, but I might. I will work on it a bit more, and put up a map at some point.

Basically only MD-08  has a significant excess of useable Dems to attack one of the Pubbie CD's, and that means attacking MD-06, and not MD-01, given where MD-08 is. The two black CD's cannot have their black percentages diluted down much, and in addition, in MD-05 the blacks will not want their 35% percentage diluted down much as well (and Hoyer needs most of  them anyway to keep his CD in the safe zone). The blacks have a veto power on redistricting in MD, basically.

Hoyer's MD-05 is only about a a Dem +8.5% PVI or so CD (so not much to give there, maybe a little, but not much, and again the blacks there are not going to want much of a dilution, since they may see that CD in their future (this is a high black increase zone), and MD-2 and MD-03 are only about Dem PVI +5.5 and 5.0, respectively (and therefore have nothing to give really).

Oh yes, for Bush 2004, MD-06 has a GOP PVI of +13%, and MD-01 is +11% GOP PVI.  So both have a lot of Pubbies to drain off and pack and move. MD-08 had a Dem PVI of 17.5%. So using just MD-08 alone, to get MD-06 down to an even PVI, means basically that MD-08 has to move 13 of its 17.5 Dem PVI points over to MD-06 to get MD-06 down to even, leaving MD-08 at just Dem +4.5 PVI. Van Hollen is just not going to allowing his Dem PVI to get down that low (and that reminds me, that I need to check where Van Hollen lives). Now to get MD-06  down to a GOP PVI of say +4% GOP PVI, I did not use MD-08 alone, but it was mostly MD-08, and as I say, at that point, the map started to get really ugly. That is when I decided to take a break.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Here's the info for that:

District   Population   Obama      McCain
1      661,611      107,143 (43%)   138,863 (55%)
2      662,907      189,032 (80%)   44,538 (19%)
3      660,768      187,899 (71%)   73,302 (28%)
4      662,549      242,534 (86%)   36,944 (13%)
5      661,427      114,091 (41%)   159,416 (57%)
6      662,877      115,142 (41%)   161,297 (57%)
7      661,544      177,854 (72%)   64,170 (26%)
8      662,803      185,702 (66%)   92,571 (33%)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Here's the full beauty of my gerrymander.  Pardon my attention whoring, but I'm quite proud of district 5:

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's the full beauty of my gerrymander.  Pardon my attention whoring, but I'm quite proud of district 5:

A while back, I came up with this, with three black-majority districts and four McCain districts:

CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 57% Black, 83% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 52-47 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 75% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 54-44 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): 52% Black, 83% Obama

Here's a zoomed in view of the beltway.

[minionofmidas]

Here's the full beauty of my gerrymander.  Pardon my attention whoring, but I'm quite proud of district 5:

A while back, I came up with this, with three black-majority districts and four McCain districts:

CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 57% Black, 83% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 52-47 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 75% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 54-44 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): 52% Black, 83% Obama

Here's a zoomed in view of the beltway.

CD2 Cummings. Assuming he lives in the Black parts of the city. He wouldn't want the other two districts, anyways. Sarbanes also lives here and is forced out.
CD4 Van Hollen.
CD5 Harris.
CD6 Edwards.
CD7 Bartlett.
CD8 open seat for a new Black Dem.
So much so easy, but...
CD3 Frank Kratovil would try a comeback... though he'd *probably* lose against any decent eastern shore Republican.
CD1 Steny Hoyer and not much of a Republican bench. You'll need to add some more Republicans to overcome that.

As for Inks' districts, well they aren't numbered anywhere but
blue see above, CD3 (though it's more Republican, and thus safer)
teal Bartlett
purple Van Hollen
grey open seat; am I correct in thinking this'll be a "coalition" seat racewise?
red Edwards
green Mr Cummings I assume, once again. Or else open, what's the racial composition?
lavender Sarbanes. Harris lives here but has no chance. Cummings might be from here and have one though; what's the racial composition?
yellow Hoyer is the incumbent, and ought to run. Whether he could win... who knows. Probably not. Maybe if the R candidate is from the Baltimore part of the district, esp. if Harris tries to chicken run here, and we get a 2008 rerun.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A 7-1 map is easy; an 8-0 map would definitely be pushing things. It's not helped that the Reps live in awkward parts of their districts (Ruppersberger and Sarbanes live a few miles from each other north of Baltimore, while Hoyer lives out in St. Mary's County and Donna Edwards is in Fort Washington in southern PG County).

State



Baltimore/Washington area



MD-01 (blue, open) - Harris gets drawn out of the district; it's now the Eastern Shore + a tentacle that reaches up from Annapolis to Howard County. Harris could run here, but I doubt he'd win. Frank Kratovil would make a comeback; the majority of the population is on the Eastern Shore, so he shouldn't have any trouble with a primary from a more liberal candidate on the Western Shore. Old district: 58-40 McCain, new district: 54-44 Obama.
MD-02 (green, Dutch Ruppersberger - D and Andy Harris - R) - Bizarrely, both of these guys live in the same town. Obviously the Rupster would be the favorite if Harris were foolish enough to run here. It's actually pretty similar to the old district. Old district: 60-38 Obama, new district: 61-37 Obama.
MD-03 (purple, John Sarbanes - D) - This one's a bit different, though. No more Baltimore, instead stretches from inner Baltimore County down to Montgomery. Old district: 59-39 Obama, new district: 62-36 Obama.
MD-04 (red, Donna Edwards - D) - Pretty similar to the old one. More compact, actually. 56% black. Old district: 85-14 Obama, new district: 88-11 Obama.
MD-05 (yellow, Steny Hoyer - D) - Also pretty similar to the old one. Old district: 65-33 Obama, new district: 66-33 Obama.
MD-06 (teal, open) - Again, cut Bartlett out of the district, as he lives in Frederick. Removed Frederick, added BaltCo suburbs. Could create an amusing fight between Bartlett and Harris. Old district: 58-40 McCain, new district: 63-35 McCain.
MD-07 (grey, Elijah Cummings) - Stretches down into Anne Arundel to soak up some Republican voters. 51% black. Old district: 79-20 Obama, new district: 70-29 Obama.
MD-08 (light purple, Chris Van Hollen - D and Roscoe Bartlett - R) - Barlett would obviously just run in MD-06 (he's too old and crotchety to actually move). Sucks up Frederick from MD-08 and loses parts of Montgomery and PG Counties. Old district: 74-25 Obama, new district: 67-32 Obama.

[krazen1211]

Does Maryland allow for mid-decade redistricting?



Moving this over from the Philadelphia thread.

The fact that Donna Edwards lives where she does unfortunately makes this uglier than it needs to otherwise be. I also don't know specifically where the 3 Baltimore congressmen live, so precincts might have to be shifted there.

There might be a better way to do it without touch point continuity but I found that routing Edwards through Montco used up too many residents.




Carroll and upper Baltco residents get Donna Edwards as a rep.


As has been said, you do need to retrogress the AA districts down to 51% to do this, and you have to run Donna Edwards up the map to Carroll County somehow.

MD-1: 52% Obama
MD-2: 59% Obama
MD-3: 59% Obama
MD-4: 73% Obama
MD-5: 63% Obama
MD-6: 56% Obama
MD-7: 71% Obama
MD-8: 63% Obama


If and when Hoyer retires, you can probably split MD-1 and MD-5 to beef up MD-1.

[Torie]

The 51% rule for minorities under the VRA is VAP, not population, so unless the Dems want to litigate whether a black does not need 51% VAP to get elected in his or her CD, push the 51% black percentage population number up to say about 53% (so it is probably indeed 51 VAP black), and try again. Thanks.

By the way, I am now quite confident the Dems won't mess with the two GOP CD's in MD.  Does anyone really think otherwise?  In any event, a 55% Obama CD in MD is a marginal CD, and when the final numbers come in, it will be more like a 54% Obama CD, and even more marginal.  It just ain't happening folks. Among other things, the MD black incumbents won't stand for it - at all.

[krazen1211]

The 51% rule for minorities under the VRA is VAP, not population, so unless the Dems want to litigate whether a black does not need 51% VAP to get elected in his or her CD, push the 51% black percentage population number up to say about 53% (so it is probably indeed 51 VAP black), and try again. Thanks.

By the way, I am now quite confident the Dems won't mess with the two GOP CD's in MD.  Does anyone really think otherwise?  In any event, a 55% Obama CD in MD is a marginal CD, and when the final numbers come in, it will be more like a 54% Obama CD, and even more marginal.  It just ain't happening folks. Among other things, the MD black incumbents won't stand for it - at all.

I guess it depends on whether Hoyer and Van Hollen, who both held powerful positions in the majority, can outweigh the 2 black reps. But given how brutal being in the minority in the House is, I can't imagine the CBC is going to be THAT selfish without reason.


It really doesn't change much. You can get the grey district up to 53% by better chopping up Baltimore precincts (without weakening CD-2 at all).


The red district requires uglier lines. You effectively have to dig the yellow district into College Park thus giving the yellow district more white liberals, then you can extend the red district further south picking up more black liberals.




You end up knocking 1% off MD-1, MD-6, and MD-8.

MD-1: 51% Obama
MD-2: 59% Obama
MD-3: 59% Obama
MD-4: 76% Obama, 53% black
MD-5: 62% Obama
MD-6: 56% Obama
MD-7: 70% Obama, 53% black
MD-8: 62% Obama

[Torie]

Those are better numbers. How much did you dilute down the black percentage in MD-05?  In any event, what you have done is convert 2 safe GOP districts, into one reasonably safe, and one marginal. And again remember the GOP percentages in the two most GOP CD's are going to move about 1% in the GOP direction, with the final census numbers.

I think the odds of this happening are very low, but I think you have done about the best that you can now. Good job. You have done very well in clarifying this issue in my mind, and saved me considerable work. Thanks indeed Johnny.

[minionofmidas]

Yes actually, I see no reason why they wouldn't do something like Johnny's map. I see no real risks. Might want to marginally clean up Cummings' district. Remember that the Eastern Shore has far more history of being connected to Annapolis than exurban Baltimore.

[Torie]

Guys, here are my thoughts about MD for what they are worth. In MD, moderate Pubbies have shown that they can cut into Dem strength. MD has a lot of swing voters, all those GS 12's government workers and above living in Montgomery County and the like. Van Hollen in MD-08, is a highly partisan Dem, and will want to remain one. He needs a pad. Ditto for Hoyer, given his position. These guys need to serve their caucus, not themselves. They don't want to worry about their re-election at all, nor have their style crimped. The black congressmen are going to bitch if their CD's are diluted down below 55% black (in total population, maybe 52.5% black VAP). To go lower than that, there had better be a really good reason, like really bagging one more CD, without much doubt.

In 2001, Rupplesbarger wanted to take over Ehrlich's Baltimore County CD. He negotiated with Cummings black precinct, by black precinct, as to just how many he could have. In the end, he got a 58% Gore CD, with a PVI for that year of +7.5% Dem. That is what he needed he thought to take Ehrlich out, and Cummings was not happy, but finally acceded - taking a hit for the team as it were. Now granted Ehrlich was an entrenched and reasonably popular incumbent. With an open seat, or a weak incumbent, Rupplesbarger might have found a PVI of +4%-5% Dem perhaps acceptable. But as I say, Van Hollen and Hoyer given their positions, and the number of swing voters in the CD's, who might drift away from a partisan Dem, given an acceptable moderate Pubbie choice, won't stand for a 4%-5% Dem PVI CD. I suspect they will insist on +6% Dem PVI anyway.

So a +6% Dem PVI for 2008 is a 59.5% Obama CD (Obama got 53.5% of the vote nationally). And as I say, when the intra county census splits come in, the Dems are going to drop a point or so, so now we are up to a 60.5% Obama CD, as the safe zone for Van Hollen and Hoyer.

So my question is, without the map looking ridiculous, and the Dem incumbents having to face a majority of new voters, how much can the Dems weaken one of the Pubbie CD's, while having the black CD's 55% black, and the Dem incumbents all having at least a 60% Obama CD (maybe a tad less (say at least 58.5% Obama) for the lower profile Jewish guy SE of Baltimore sort of, whose name escapes me Cardin I think come to think of it)?  That I think would be a useful exercise. If one of the Pubbie CD's can really be taken down to say at least close to  a 50-50 proposition for the Dems (that would be like a 53% Obama or more CD), then I think they may well go for such a map. Otherwise not. They certainly are not going to go after both Pubbie CD's. One will have to be a Pubbie pack CD. If one of the Pubbie CD's can get up to say 56% Obama, then I think they may well be tempted to just do it, and the odds of them going for it would rise - substantially - over a 53% Obama CD, since then they would be the favorites to take the CD over in 2010.

So if one of you guys wants to engage in that exercise, since you have worked this state far more than I, and know all the traps, that would be great. If not, I will get around to it eventually. Thanks, and Johnny, I really do like your maps. You "get it;" you have talent.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It may have been true in the past that there were a lot of moderate swing voters in Maryland, but it's looking increasingly likely that they're becoming solid Democratic voters. Montgomery County is pretty much a guaranteed 2-1 Democratic vote now, Charles and Howard have moved from swing counties to pretty solidly Democratic counties, and even Frederick is heading towards swing county status.

Hoyer and Van Hollen don't need districts any more Democratic than about 65% Obama (which Hoyer has, but Van Hollen's is still packed in from when they dislodged Connie Morella). Hoyer had a reasonably competent opponent this time around and still finished at 64%. As for Cummings, well, he can be petulant all he wants, if he prefers to remain in the minority.

It's John Sarbanes in MD-03, by the way. Cardin's in the Senate now, and Sarbanes is definitely not Jewish.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And Harris is not a guy with mass appeal to moderate swing voters.

[Torie]

It may have been true in the past that there were a lot of moderate swing voters in Maryland, but it's looking increasingly likely that they're becoming solid Democratic voters. Montgomery County is pretty much a guaranteed 2-1 Democratic vote now, Charles and Howard have moved from swing counties to pretty solidly Democratic counties, and even Frederick is heading towards swing county status.

Hoyer and Van Hollen don't need districts any more Democratic than about 65% Obama (which Hoyer has, but Van Hollen's is still packed in from when they dislodged Connie Morella). Hoyer had a reasonably competent opponent this time around and still finished at 64%. As for Cummings, well, he can be petulant all he wants, if he prefers to remain in the minority.

It's John Sarbanes in MD-03, by the way. Cardin's in the Senate now, and Sarbanes is definitely not Jewish.

Yes, indeed. Time flies when you are having fun.

Anyway, I have set the parameters which I think are the key factors as to whether the Dems launch an attack on one of the Pubbie CD's: 55% black, and 60% Obama (with Sarbannes perhaps shaved down to 58.5% Obama), in the Dem incumbent zone. If it varies much of these parameters, I don't see it happening, although in all events, even if the Dems don't go for the gold, certainly one of the Pubbie CD's could be substantially weakened, but not enough in the latter case I don't think to have pretty good odds of taking over the Pubbie CD, absent a wave or sick incumbent Pubbie puppy, or an open seat, if the Dem is the superior candidate for the CD.

How much can the Dems accomplish within these parameters which I have set is my current interest.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The main thing to consider is that ousting Harris would be a lot easier than ousting a generic Republican. Harris is the type of guy who would be 100% unelectable under any circumstances in even a D+1 seat. And probably even an R+1 seat. And maybe even an R+5 seat.

[Torie]

The main thing to consider is that ousting Harris would be a lot easier than ousting a generic Republican. Harris is the type of guy who would be 100% unelectable under any circumstances in even a D+1 seat. And probably even an R+1 seat. And maybe even an R+5 seat.

Well then the Dems would be wise to Pubbie pack MD-06, and weaken MD-01 as much as they can, while still being happy with the contours of all of their own CD's.  And I think I have a pretty good idea what will make them happy, and what not.

Arrogant bastard aren't I?  That is what happens when you have been following this sh*t for too many decades I guess.

[minionofmidas]

Guys, here are my thoughts about MD for what they are worth. In MD, moderate Pubbies have shown that they can cut into Dem strength. MD has a lot of swing voters, all those GS 12's government workers and above living in Montgomery County and the like.

These people last voted Republican, on any state or federal level, a dozen years ago. R's have no more chance of a comeback there than D's in Harlan County.

[minionofmidas]

Johnny already posted a map with six seats safe for Democrats even by your inflated requirements, and the seventh leaning their way (though I know what would happen in an Eastern Shore R versus Western Shore D race there) anyways.... though you're right that Cummings has reason to want more than 51% Black. Though Edwards doesn't... but has one in that map anyways.

[Brittain33]

Torie, I've noticed that you've identified veto points in states where Dems control the process or have significant influence (Maryland [black reps insisting on high VAP], Illinois [Schakowsky complaining about getting a less hardcore D district], to some extent New York [the whole upstate discussion about whom to sacrifice, Hinchey's friends in the assembly protecting him]) that will keep Dems from realizing gains when they have an opportunity. But in Republican-controlled states, you've not only drawn maps for maximum sustainable Republican advantage, you've done so in a way that breaks up longstanding geographic patterns in places like York/Lancaster PA and eastern Wisconsin. I'm not saying that a Republican majority in Wisconsin won't go for maximum gain, or that Penn. Republicans might not go even further than they did in 2002 and reconfigure solid R districts to share the wealth, but doesn't it seem challenging to believe that it's all-clear for Republicans and they will go all-out in their states, but none of the Dems will? This is a separate issue from whether you've drawn the best possible maps for those states for maximizing sustainable Republican gain, which I easily believe is true.

[minionofmidas]

Torie's admitted that his Wisconsin mapquest was just a wet dream that isn't going to happen; just not in the thread itself.

[Torie]

Torie, I've noticed that you've identified veto points in states where Dems control the process or have significant influence (Maryland [black reps insisting on high VAP], Illinois [Schakowsky complaining about getting a less hardcore D district], to some extent New York [the whole upstate discussion about whom to sacrifice, Hinchey's friends in the assembly protecting him]) that will keep Dems from realizing gains when they have an opportunity. But in Republican-controlled states, you've not only drawn maps for maximum sustainable Republican advantage, you've done so in a way that breaks up longstanding geographic patterns in places like York/Lancaster PA and eastern Wisconsin. I'm not saying that a Republican majority in Wisconsin won't go for maximum gain, or that Penn. Republicans might not go even further than they did in 2002 and reconfigure solid R districts to share the wealth, but doesn't it seem challenging to believe that it's all-clear for Republicans and they will go all-out in their states, but none of the Dems will? This is a separate issue from whether you've drawn the best possible maps for those states for maximizing sustainable Republican gain, which I easily believe is true.

Yes, Brittain33, I did abandon sinking Kind in WI-03, because it made Petri's WI-06 CD just too erose, with too much new territory. I will send both maps off to the map drawers for Wisconsin, but I don't think the Pubbies will go for the gold. And you are quite right about PA-16 and PA-09, and I redid the map, to reduce the amount of new territory with which each of the two  incumbent Pubbies would have to cope. Sometimes however, a Pubbie CD needs so much help, that one does need to shove the lines around a lot, and doing that to help out a Pubbie incumbent who needs help, I am quite sure will be more tolerated by the map drawers, than when the game is to knock off a Dem incumbent. Make sense?

As in all things in life, it is balancing test. For PA, I had to do a lot of balancing, since at some point, helping one Pubbie is going to hurt another, after maximizing the Dem pack.

[Torie]

Johnny already posted a map with six seats safe for Democrats even by your inflated requirements, and the seventh leaning their way (though I know what would happen in an Eastern Shore R versus Western Shore D race there) anyways.... though you're right that Cummings has reason to want more than 51% Black. Though Edwards doesn't... but has one in that map anyways.

Johnny is a very fine map drawer indeed, and his map on the previous page, does indeed come close, although I don't like the 51% black thing (it has got to be at least 53%, or it will fall below 50% black VAP, and the Pubbies will sue, with the issue being whether it is OK now for MD to go below 50% black VAP), but then Sarbannes can be shaved a bit, so Johnny's final numbers may well be realized, anyway, meeting all of my parameters. Since the partisan numbers in Maryland have about a 1% Dem bias, which will go away when the intra county census numbers come in,  what is now per Johnny's map a .5% 2008 Dem PVI for MD-01, will end up about .5% GOP PVI (53% Obama). So MD-01 is marginal. So given Johnny's fine work, I will erase my no change notation for Maryland, and award the Dems +.5 seats.

[krazen1211]

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/2011/01/what_about_redistricting.html

Maryland did not lose any congressional seats, but shifting population means some districts will change shape. Some points lawmakers may consider: The Baltimore area, which has three representatives, has experienced almost no population growth in recent years. Other areas, including greater Frederick and the Washington Beltway communities, are growing.

And the Democrat-dominated state government could take aim at one of the two Republican-held districts, roughly the Eastern Shore and Western Maryland.

Miller singled out the Rep. John Sarbanes’ District 3 as a potential area for restructuring. The Democrat’s territory includes pieces of Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County.
“What we’ll probably do is attempt to make the districts more compact,” he said.




Leads me to believe Johnny nailed it. They'll pack in MD-6.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It actually took very little tinkering to up MD-07's black percentage. I just put part of Baltimore County adjacent to western Baltimore from MD-03 to MD-07, then cut out a bit of northwestern BaltCo from MD-03 to MD-02, and finally ran MD-03 further into Anne Arundel and cut out a small white-majority slice of southwestern Baltimore.



MD-07 is up to 56% black; MD-02 is now 59-39 Obama and MD-03 61-37 Obama.