NV/PPP: Neck-and-neck
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  NV/PPP: Neck-and-neck
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Author Topic: NV/PPP: Neck-and-neck  (Read 4189 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: November 01, 2010, 07:26:28 AM »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_1101110.pdf

Angle leads 47-46 with all the candidates read, Reid leads 49-48 with just the two.

Tarkanian is given a theoretical 54-39 lead over Reid.

Reid is given a 50-46 lead with early voters, while Angle leads 48-40 with voters planning to vote tomorrow.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2010, 07:34:12 AM »

Reid's lead among early voters gives him at least a pebble of hope.
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Umengus
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2010, 10:01:03 AM »

Party id: D +1

Optimist...  in 2006, it was R +7... (in 2008, D +8)
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2010, 10:17:30 AM »

Reid's lead among early voters gives him at least a pebble of hope.

The poll does not make a lot of sense to me when it comes to the Reid leads by 4% among early voters bit. The early voting partisan breakdown was 51% Dem, 49% GOP as between the two parties, and the poll shows Angle ahead among independents by 14% or something, with each candidate getting the same percentage of votes from the other party. So it doesn't add up (Angle should be ahead by about 2% among early voters, or something, not down by 4%), unless voters of the same affiliation, or lack thereof, are quite a bit more Dem among early voters than non early to be voters. I strongly doubt that. It may be that the Tuesday vote will be a bit more GOP in affiliation, since there is not much early voting action in the heavily GOP cow counties, which were not open that much, and only had one polling station.

Or the crosstabs are off, given the high MOE.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2010, 10:36:38 AM »

All the Dems need is 51 seats to keep majority. They can win and lose a combination of states to keep the majority. Such as dems losing CO and PA but keeping NV and WVA. This poll does make a whole lot of sense.
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SPC
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2010, 01:12:38 PM »

I say there's a ~90% chance that Reid will be crying tomorrow night.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2010, 01:35:54 PM »

We could've spent more elsewhere if the Tea party hadn't nominated Angle. The Democrats are lucky. This year would be more of a bloodbath than it already is without the T Party's help.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2010, 02:32:21 PM »

We could've spent more elsewhere if the Tea party hadn't nominated Angle. The Democrats are lucky. This year would be more of a bloodbath than it already is without the T Party's help.

Keep in mind that Lowden had problems of her own and Danny Tarkanian didn't have to deal with $14 million worth of attack ads. And if you think Ashjian is a problem for Angle now, just imagine how much of a nuisance he would have been if the GOP had nominated an establishment candidate. I suspect that Angle's tea party affiliations may have actually saved this seat for the Republicans.
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memphis
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2010, 06:55:15 PM »

All the Dems need is 51 seats to keep majority. They can win and lose a combination of states to keep the majority. Such as dems losing CO and PA but keeping NV and WVA. This poll does make a whole lot of sense.

Correction. All they need is 50. VP Biden can break ties.
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Meeker
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2010, 07:05:45 PM »

All the Dems need is 51 seats to keep majority. They can win and lose a combination of states to keep the majority. Such as dems losing CO and PA but keeping NV and WVA. This poll does make a whole lot of sense.

Correction. All they need is 50. VP Biden can break ties.

Not if Lieberman jumps ship.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2010, 08:49:51 PM »

Reid's lead among early voters gives him at least a pebble of hope.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/11/01/1804696/nevada-gop-turns-in-strong-early.html

Looks not to be the case.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2010, 08:46:13 PM »


It certainly appears that it was now! Smiley
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2010, 01:03:46 PM »

PPP Early vote tally was almost right on the final vote.
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