Surprise pick(s)?

[King]

Buck is far better than Fiorina.

Ya but it's a three way deal, getting Fiorina IN means Boxer is OUT

I'd trade Buck to get rid of Boxer.....

Fiorina would be unbearable.  I'd rather have Buck.

What would Fiorina do? She's be a party line vote for the most part....but that's worth it to get rid of Boxer, IMO.

You're underestimating Carly's ego.  She might be a party line vote, but she'd definitely make an attempt to standout and make Boxer seem tame.

And while I predict him to win, Bennet doesn't really impress me.  Buck and Boxer would be more valuable assets than Bennet and Fiorina.

I have a thing for people who seem to have a passionate interest in our country, whether they are right wing loons or liberal nuts.  I like idea makers instead of pawns.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Annie Kuster holds NH-02 for the Dems.

Gene Taylor goes down.

These aren't my "official" predictions, but I wouldn't be surprised if either happens.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rush Holt loses in NJ-12 (along with Adler in NJ-03, though that's not much of a "surprise" anymore).

[Lief 🗽]

I think the Dems have a good shot at picking up a random seat that isn't LA-02, IL-10, DE-AL, or HI-01. FL-25 would be the most likely one, IMO, though I could see a pick-up in WA-08 or CA-03.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think the Dems have a good shot at picking up a random seat that isn't LA-02, IL-10, DE-AL, or HI-01. FL-25 would be the most likely one, IMO, though I could see a pick-up in WA-08 or CA-03.

If any, I'd think it'd be Ben Quayle's seat. Major-league fuck up from the GOP primary voters, there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fwiw, the biggest shock in the last General Election here (Peter Robinson's defeat in Belfast East) wasn't picked up by anyone. Including Robinson:



Funniest political photo of the year, or close to it.

I love that photo.

Sorry, was there a point to this post? Ah, yes. Obviously it's fun to look out for shocks, but don't be surprised if there's a result that comes from nowhere and leaves you slack-jawed in amazement. Of course there might not be one, but if you want to try to second guess that sort of thing, you should put together a list of seemingly incumbents hit by scandals.

[BillyW]

Mr. Moderate beat me to AZ-3. I will put one out there from left field. TX-25 ( Lloyd Doggett ). Realistically, I dont think this happens...but.....but... Austin, as liberal as it is ( by Texas standards ), has tons of good paying jobs with great benefits. I can see people who normally vote dem worried about their fabulous health care package being replaced by the monstrosity of Obamacare. Hispanic turnout may be down. It could happen. Probably wont, but could

[Lief 🗽]

Mr. Moderate beat me to AZ-3. I will put one out there from left field. TX-25 ( Lloyd Doggett ). Realistically, I dont think this happens...but.....but... Austin, as liberal as it is ( by Texas standards ), has tons of good paying jobs with great benefits. I can see people who normally vote dem worried about their fabulous health care package being replaced by the monstrosity of Obamacare. Hispanic turnout may be down. It could happen. Probably wont, but could

Dogget's opponent, Donna Campbell, is a pretty hardcore teabagger. She'll play well in the eastern half of the district, which hates Doggett, but she's not going to do nearly well enough in Hays or Travis. Doggett's also cast himself as somewhat independent of Obama/Washington, making a big deal of his opposition to the bailouts/TARP and balanced budgets is kind of a long-time pet issue of his. He'll probably be held below 60%, but he's not going to lose.

[Iosif]

Tom Perriello to win.
Nikki Haley to lose.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Tom Perriello to win.
Nikki Haley to lose.

Nikki Haley losing would indeed be a massive upset. I don't think it will happen, but it's not one I'd entirely rule out. Republicans have been (and continue to be) much more confident about the race than reality merits.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Dem winning in Alaska Senate race.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why are Libertarians anti-Frank? He's very libertarian on some issues (see online gambling)

For me...oh let's go with Dems hold PA-07.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dems hold MI-7

[Skill and Chance]

Democratic Upset: Kratovil holds MD-01 and/or Perriello holds VA-05, and Strickland survives in OH

Republican Upset: Frazier ousts Perlmutter in CO-07, Sanford Bishop loses in GA-02, Gene Taylor loses

Other surprises:  Bielat closes to within 55/45 of Frank, but Frank still wins, Jan Brewer wins by less than 10 points in AZ, John Lynch wins NH-Gov, but the margin is closer than 53/47.

[Dan the Roman]

Strickland, Kuster all win

Tierney loses.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Strickland, Kuster all win

Tierney loses.

How publicized are Tierney's problems?

At this point Kuster winning really wouldn't be an upset.

I'll go with: Edwards picking up FL-12 and Labrador winning ID-1.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Strickland, Kuster all win

Tierney loses.

How publicized are Tierney's problems?

At this point Kuster winning really wouldn't be an upset.

I'll go with: Edwards picking up FL-12 and Labrador winning ID-1.

I don't know that Strickland winning would be an upset either, at this point.

[Dan the Roman]

Strickland, Kuster all win

Tierney loses.

How publicized are Tierney's problems?

At this point Kuster winning really wouldn't be an upset.

I'll go with: Edwards picking up FL-12 and Labrador winning ID-1.

Tierney would lose to State Rep unknown or some-guy. Luckily for him he is facing Bill Hudak. Who happens to have just been laughed out of court today from a failed attempt to sue Tierney for libel for which the incumbent's lawyers used truth as a defense.

Still, even the Globe could barely bring itself to back him. And the North-Shore is Baker central.

[Mr.Phips]

Arcuri wins reelection in NY-24. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Perriello wins reelection.

[Niemeyerite]

mcadams wins in alaska!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Rossi wins Washington is really my only shocker, but it's a longshot. I see that one flipping before Carly wins California.

[Vepres]

Why are Libertarians anti-Frank? He's very libertarian on some issues (see online gambling)

He chairs a powerful committee that oversees economic issues.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Tierney would lose to State Rep unknown or some-guy. Luckily for him he is facing Bill Hudak. Who happens to have just been laughed out of court today from a failed attempt to sue Tierney for libel for which the incumbent's lawyers used truth as a defense.

Still, even the Globe could barely bring itself to back him. And the North-Shore is Baker central.

Tisei is probably kicking himself for picking the wrong race, but in fairness, there was no way to reasonably conclude that Tierney would be even remotely vulnerable even as recently back as the September primary.

[CatoMinor]

Dennis breaks 40% in CA-08.