US House Redistricting: General

[krazen1211]

Georgia...not all that interesting I guess.


1. New Republican district in Atlanta suburbs.
2. Throw Macon and Valdosta into the 2nd.

The only question is, I think, whether they try to use Kingston and Broun's R+15 districts to crack John Barrow's 12th. You can easily knock the black % down to about 32%.

[krazen1211]

Has anyone tried chopping together a Republican district in Massachusetts?

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/election_results/ma_president/

Based on this list, I came up with the following:



There's a Republican PVI on this; just looking at the numbers its 51-49 one way or another. Amazing how you can't even find a town that's more than 55% McCain

[krazen1211]

Is there any point to drawing an Arizona map in DRA, or is the population balance in Maricopa county so out of whack that its pointless?

It looks like 1, 7, and 8 could remain just about the same, while 2 might have to shed some of its portions around Glendale, and then 3-6 split into 5 districts rather than 4.

[krazen1211]

Is there any point to drawing an Arizona map in DRA, or is the population balance in Maricopa county so out of whack that its pointless?

Yeah. Pinal, too - on DRA it looks like the first can/should drop all of Casas Grandes. Not sure that will work in practice, the monster growth is going to have been mostly in the sixth district portion.
Then again... with Arizona's massive overestimate of their growth, it's reasonable to expect the overestimate to be concentrated in the massive growth parts too, ie for Maricopa to have fewer people in relation to the rest of the state than the estimates claim.
Anyways, the biggest growth in Maricopa is on the western and eastern ends. That probably means the 2nd and 6th retreat outwards, and the shed areas plus 3rd and 5th are drawn into three new districts, with the 4th mostly left alone. The 2nd might also pick up La Paz County from the 7th.

That's kind of what I figured would happen as well, with the 5th (which covers Tempe and Scottsdale) essentially split into 2.

I'm guessing that Schweikert would run in what would be a fairly heavy Republican 9th (the Scottsdale district where he lives). The new 5th would be anchored in Tempe and Pinal county, probably would be swingy at a guess, but I believe Tempe is Dem leaning.

[krazen1211]

Utah redistricting:

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/51984561-90/county-democratic-senate-lake.html.csp


Richfield • Republicans proposed Friday two redistricting plans that could further reduce the number of already far-outnumbered Democrats in Utah’s Legislature and congressional delegation.

Two Democratic seats in the state Senate would likely disappear under a proposal unveiled by Senate President Michael Waddoups, R-Taylorsville, at hearings of the Legislature’s Redistricting Committee in Richfield and Ephraim. Republicans already hold a 22-7 edge in the Senate.

Republicans also floated a second major proposal to divide Salt Lake County among all four new U.S. House districts, which would dilute Democratic votes in their one stronghold in the state. That could make it more difficult to re-elect Democrat Rep. Jim Matheson if he runs again for the House.

[krazen1211]

Homosexuals want VRA districts.

http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_18462724?nclick_check=1

"Communities of interest such as Latinos and African-Americans are protected to ensure proper representation," said Mario Guerrero, government affairs director for Equality California, a gay advocacy group. "We want the same opportunity to elect representatives from our community."

[krazen1211]

Alaska redistricting upheld. Tack another one onto the 'loser whines, sues, and loses case' pile.

Link






The appropriate remedy should be treble damages.

[krazen1211]

Cut Albuquerque in half and attach to rural areas.

[krazen1211]

General question: Didn't the Congressional Black Caucus and the GOP House leadership work out a scheme, some years ago, to essentially guarantee a certain number of Black-held seats by creating several heavily Democratic districts, essentially leaving the rest of the districts to their own (white, Republican) devices?

It seems to have worked, as Black representation in the House essentially equals the Black share of the national population, with 49 Black representatives (including 3 Republicans) out of 435, and of course the GOP has held the house 18 of the last 22 years.

It is conceivable--likely, even, that Democratic schemes to limit gerrymandering could reduce the number of Black-held districts?

Well, yes. The Dem party used to slice black communities into smithereens in order to elect White liberals. North Carolina Democrats referred to this tactic as bleaching.

[krazen1211]

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

The Dems also need to save votes for Bustos.