US House Redistricting: General

[Gass3268]

Is there a plausible way that New Mexico Democrats can draw Steve Pearce out of office in 2020 and have 3 Democratic seats?

Maybe 3 vertical seats?

[Gass3268]

A map I came up with quickly.

1st 59.7-39.0 Obama
2nd 54.6-44.0 Obama
3rd 56.2-42.6 Obama

All three also have a Democratic average vote in DRA as well.  Could unpack the 1st to make the second more safe if you wanted.

About what would this have looked like with 2016 numbers?

[Gass3268]

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

[Gass3268]

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

Actually, that's what I'm hoping they do, but replace Peoria with Bloomington.

[Gass3268]

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

[Gass3268]

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.

Then it might be the 3rd.