US House Redistricting: General (user search)
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  US House Redistricting: General (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 137395 times)
Torie
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E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: November 11, 2010, 10:22:22 PM »
« edited: November 11, 2010, 10:32:22 PM by Torie »

Here is Sean Trende's crystal ball on how he thinks redistricting will play out. I don't think he understands the lacuna of state laws well enough however. For example, he chats about doing away with Peters' district, MI-9, and that will be hard to do, because CD's in Michigan can't cross county lines, if there is a way to avoid that that comports with federal law. At least that is my understanding from the 2001 redistricting, and I assume the Michigan law has not changed. So it will be hard to push Oakland and Macomb County Democrats into the black Wayne County CD's. Plus, the Gross Pointe towns, which are GOP, and in Wayne County, will still have to be "trapped" in a black CD.

And if Minnesota loses a seat (Sean seems to think it is still ahead by a nose over Missouri as to which state loses a seat, although I have read on this Forum the opposite), I strongly suspect that what will happen is that the courts will combine MN-7 and MN-8 into one district, and the new Pubbie in MN-8 will go by-by, losing to Peterson who represents MN-7.

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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2010, 10:36:23 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2010, 11:11:12 PM by Torie »

MI-11 and MI-12 cross county lines despite the fact that both could be confined to one county.

Yes, that is because in both instances, the CD's ran out of room to expand in a county, or in the case of MI-12, if it expanded further into Macomb, that would force another CD to cross county lines. But the two black districts can expand west in Wayne County, taking territory from McCotter's (sp) district. That is the problem.

Actually, having looked at the Michigan map, I take your point as to MI-12. It could have expanded further into Macomb, rather than hop over into Oakland, and perhaps not have forced the district to the north to cross a county line, but actually not, since I see the district to the north in Macomb and counties further north, does not cross any other county lines. Yes, McCotter's district could take some of Dingell's territory, but then will Dingell's district cross more county lines?  Yes, it is a headache.  

I guess the bottom line is that three CD's in the Detroit metro area need to cross county lines, and right now it is MI-11, MI-12, MI-15, and the GOP will have the opportunity to pick up to three different CD's to cross county lines if it wishes.

End of discursive ramble.
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