US House Redistricting: General
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  US House Redistricting: General
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Brittain33
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« Reply #175 on: January 25, 2020, 09:12:55 AM »

Have there been any maps of Michigan redistricting on here? I can't find any.

Several years ago, there was a long-running thread with Muon, Torie, and jimrtex posting maps. You’d probably have to dig deep into search results to find it.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #176 on: April 18, 2020, 04:50:29 PM »

There is somewhere. I made one that was pretty fair but it had 2010 pop estimates instead of 2018.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #177 on: June 13, 2020, 08:05:23 AM »

Are National Democrats still fine with Virginia Democrats letting the voters approve a measure that would turn over redistricting from the legislature to the 6-1 Republican Supreme Court? If so, this has to be one of the dumbest moves blinded by self-righteousness I’ve ever seen
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lfromnj
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« Reply #178 on: June 13, 2020, 05:40:15 PM »

Are National Democrats still fine with Virginia Democrats letting the voters approve a measure that would turn over redistricting from the legislature to the 6-1 Republican Supreme Court? If so, this has to be one of the dumbest moves blinded by self-righteousness I’ve ever seen

Even if the commission isn't there the GOP will just sue like D's did in PA/NC
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #179 on: June 24, 2020, 08:37:47 PM »

 McCaskill thows so much shade, she essentially confirms she's not running again:

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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #180 on: June 25, 2020, 10:57:22 AM »

I mean, she's not wrong Tongue
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #181 on: June 25, 2020, 11:16:34 AM »

In fairness, if Dems wanted a majority black district there is not much else they could have done?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #182 on: June 25, 2020, 11:22:03 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 11:46:23 AM by lfromnj »

In fairness, if Dems wanted a majority black district there is not much else they could have done?

2010 redistricting in Missouri actually had a D governor and they had just above 1/3 th emajority in the state house.. The deal was to keep Cleaver and Clay safe from primary challenges but kick out Russ Carnahan and they bribed black delegates to do this as Cleaver and Clay are both black.

So MO 2nd was made a bit safer than in a more fair map and it would have flipped in 2018 without Cleaver and Clay's backstabbing. I don't think a 3rd D district was really possible but I think it would have flipped in 2018 with a more fairly drawn map.

Good on Air Claire for calling them out.

Here's the MO 2nd drawn fairly with 2010 numbers


Blue is 51% black VRA while green is the suburban district that is Trump +6 compared to the current Trump +11, this district was lost by 3 points in 2018 so this new district flips in 2018 by a point or two.(the district goes to St Charles county which is north instead of the more compact Jefferson county because st Charles belongs with the well educated white suburbs of st louis compared to the more WWC Jefferson county which has zoomed super hard right although people didn't know this in 2010.



Here is the district with Jefferson county

This moves it to Trump +10 although Kander won both variations of the green district by 2 points. I guess this variation might have allowed Carnahan to survive in 2012 although he goes down in 2014, not sure if this flips back to D in 2018.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #183 on: December 02, 2020, 01:10:38 AM »

McCaskill thows so much shade, she essentially confirms she's not running again:



God, I wish McCaskill's politics weren't so bad, because I really want to like her. I suppose I'll have to be happy with Kander.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #184 on: December 07, 2020, 12:26:06 PM »

https://www.theday.com/article/20201205/NWS12/201209641

"Even before Covid-19, 2600 people a week were leaving NYC"

https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2020/12/02/western-new-york-population-clock.html

"Western New York loses another person every 2 hours and 41 minutes"

The first article goes more general after detailing New York City, looking at the national.

Does the state lose 2 seats? The apportionment estimates I've found are all end of last year, meaning pre-Covid and that's not baked in. Its impact is probably limited due to how close the lockdown occurred to the magical census date but it has to have some effect.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #185 on: December 07, 2020, 06:04:50 PM »

It'll be very close, but I'm going to guess it loses two. New York being hit hard by covid so early means that it'll be one of the few states to have substantial covid related deaths before the census was conducted, which could make the difference.
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beesley
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« Reply #186 on: March 11, 2021, 04:11:21 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2021, 04:13:31 PM by beesley »



DRA now has 2020 census shapes with a cool new block level assignment feature. You can also convert maps made with 2010 shapes to 2020 shapes, which I've just tried with my Illinois map, and it worked tremendously, though naturally a few adjustments are necessary depending on your population deviation allowance. I'll leave it to you to read the article in full, but it essentially explains what that means and how to do it, as does the video below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jyKawULHbg
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Thunder98
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« Reply #187 on: March 11, 2021, 10:32:48 AM »

When will we see 2020 election numbers come out for DRA?
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Boobs
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« Reply #188 on: March 18, 2021, 11:05:31 AM »

When will we see 2020 election numbers come out for DRA?

Kansas already has them, so I assume the rest will be added in the coming months.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #189 on: August 03, 2021, 09:48:30 AM »

I am already prepared for a Speaker McCarthy and a Majority Leader Schumer, it's gonna be a 52/48 D Senate and an R H similar to 2014, but Rs won the Senate with a Red Senate map

Biden is leaving Poor Seniors out of a Pandemic Stimulus checks and they're on fixed incomes and are our parents and they need stimulus checks, we don't have any money for anymore they gave checks to rich people 50K and over, it should of been a cut off in March

Seniors are the largest group and they turnout in Midterms are are gonna rebel

Boomers put Bush W, Boehner and Trump into office
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Thunder98
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« Reply #190 on: August 21, 2021, 11:41:31 AM »

DRA has added 2016, 2018 and 2020 Election data for Connecticut.

I hope they add 2020 election data for Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, Indiana and Missouri soon!
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Thunder98
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« Reply #191 on: August 29, 2021, 01:47:04 PM »

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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #192 on: August 29, 2021, 02:06:35 PM »


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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #193 on: August 29, 2021, 10:11:59 PM »

All I want for Christmas is Virginia and New York.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #194 on: August 29, 2021, 11:07:20 PM »
« Edited: August 29, 2021, 11:10:29 PM by BoiseBoy »

All I want for Christmas is Virginia and New York.
And Oregon, and Mississippi, and New Mexico, and New Jersey, and Maryland, and Indiana, and Pennsylvania, and Kentucky,
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #195 on: August 31, 2021, 08:45:04 AM »

It's important to note that Biden won't be stuck in the mid 40s next Nov he will be close to 55 percent and the reason why because there won't be an international Terrorist attack, intifada Arafat, Saddam and Bin Laden are DEAD AND WE HAVE REAL IDS ON PLANES AND FILL BODY SCANNERS

TALIBAN CANT DO A 911 SINCE WE HAVE REAL IFS
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Thunder98
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« Reply #196 on: September 03, 2021, 03:01:09 PM »

Ugh now my new maps since the 2020 data will be messed up again.

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CityofSinners
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« Reply #197 on: September 19, 2021, 09:40:33 PM »

If a split goverment can't find a consensus map. How is decided which court gets to draw the maps?

Thinking especially of WI and PA here. Could be a decent difference if the PA/WI supreme court or a federal court gets to draw the maps.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #198 on: September 20, 2021, 01:08:56 AM »

If a split goverment can't find a consensus map. How is decided which court gets to draw the maps?

Thinking especially of WI and PA here. Could be a decent difference if the PA/WI supreme court or a federal court gets to draw the maps.
I think it’s always a state court unless it’s a federal law (read VRA) issue
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Frodo
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« Reply #199 on: November 14, 2021, 11:23:25 PM »

The democratization of the redistricting process doesn't receive enough attention, I think:

Americans are participating in redistricting like never before

Quote
The number of Americans who have engaged with state legislatures and independent commissions working to redraw political boundary lines in the decennial redistricting process has hit vertiginous new heights as voters inundate mapmakers with proposals, suggestions and objections.

In Washington state, the independent redistricting commission has received input from about 7,000 people, either through emailed comments or participation in virtual town hall meetings, a threefold increase compared to the last redistricting process a decade ago.

Of those, state residents have submitted 1,300 proposed maps of their own. Seventy of those maps have qualified as third-party recommendations that commissioners will consider.

In California, where the independent redistricting commission still has six weeks to go before a deadline to finalize new district maps, more than 13,000 comments have been submitted. In the entirety of the last three-month redistricting process, California's commission received about 20,000 comments and suggestions.

In Michigan, 9,000 people applied to sit on a new redistricting commission, and those who were chosen have received more than 10,000 comments already, a decade after the legislature did not accept comments at all. The website Utah residents can use to submit comments on proposed district maps was so overwhelmed earlier this week that the server crashed.

"It's very clear that there is a lot of public engagement everywhere," said Sam Wang, who heads the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, a nonpartisan group that tracks and monitors redistricting efforts across the nation. "Citizens are much more engaged than before."
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