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  Talk Elections
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  US House Redistricting: General
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 112567 times)
Zaybay
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« Reply #125 on: February 28, 2019, 12:34:00 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #126 on: February 28, 2019, 12:41:47 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #127 on: February 28, 2019, 02:31:18 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #128 on: February 28, 2019, 06:22:33 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.

Then it might be the 3rd.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #129 on: March 11, 2019, 02:03:52 am »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.

Then it might be the 3rd.
Yeah that would make sense.  Could shift CA-4 west.  Give up the mountains and take in Yuba, Sutter, Colusa, and Glenn, making it a central valley/exurban Sacramento district.  Also keep in mind if the citizenship question makes it on the census, biggest population losses come from the valley and socal.  I could see a seat in LA county being ripped up if there's an undercount of hispanics.  Maybe CA-40?
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Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia
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« Reply #130 on: March 20, 2019, 11:08:58 pm »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

Louisville cannot be gerrymandered, Anne Northup was the last stand there and Louisville got bluer and bluer until it voted out Anne Northup, Kansas City will make one of the Western MO seats competitive. Out of these, Nashville is probably the most feasible, but I don't think Republicans want to gerrymander Democratic cities and create dummymanders, as they did in NJ, VA, TX, and GA
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Cassandra
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« Reply #131 on: April 01, 2019, 07:59:47 pm »

Does anyone have maps for Georgia after the 2020 census?
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Sol
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« Reply #132 on: June 28, 2019, 02:24:45 pm »

Btw, just realized there's an Oregon Redistricting Thread which should probably be added to the OP.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #133 on: June 28, 2019, 03:11:37 pm »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

Louisville cannot be gerrymandered, Anne Northup was the last stand there and Louisville got bluer and bluer until it voted out Anne Northup, Kansas City will make one of the Western MO seats competitive. Out of these, Nashville is probably the most feasible, but I don't think Republicans want to gerrymander Democratic cities and create dummymanders, as they did in NJ, VA, TX, and GA


Ky03 is Clinton +15 and Ky 4 and Ky 2 are Trump +36 and Trump +40. Easily able to combine all  for something around Trump +20 on average. Safe R.

Problem for the GOP is the KY constitution forbids more county splitting than necessary which Ky 03 can only be made to around Clinton+8 or something like that so you might as well pack it so everyone is happy.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #134 on: July 22, 2019, 09:50:31 pm »
« Edited: July 23, 2019, 09:19:32 pm by Nyvin »

Looking at the Twin Cities MN Metro, I think a least change map is actually quite possible for 2020 with 7 districts.   The 7 county area has enough population for 3.87 districts as of the 2018 estimates (and growing faster than the rest of the state),  so keeping MN-2 going southeast is actually perfect to fill in the rest.

2018 Estimates:

Anoka County
353813
Hennepin County
1259428
Total
1613241
Districts
2.01253373
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Ramsey County
550210
Washington County
259201
Total
809411
Districts
1.00974804
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dakota County
425423
Carver County
103551
Scott County
147381
Rice County
66523
Goodhue County
46403
Wabasha County
21645
Total
810926
Districts
1.011638018

Both Hennepin districts already go into Anoka county anyway, so it makes sense that the rest of Anoka is added in with them.   Anoka and Hennepin will be just slightly over 2 districts in 2020.

Ramsey and Washington likewise are already together right now, and in 2020 they'll be almost exactly make 1 district together.

That leaves Dakota, Scott, and Carver in the 7 county Metro, which can be put together and add the rest of Rice county (already in MN-2 partially) and keep Goodhue and Wabasha for a bit above 1 district.

That leaves 4 districts in the Metro (or pretty close to it) and you end up with something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/195772db-7c60-4d59-96cb-2f1560f2afd9

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lfromnj
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« Reply #135 on: July 22, 2019, 11:06:40 pm »



This is what I would expect an aggresive MNDFL to draw. 4 likely/Safe Metro districts + one duluth/rochester district. And if Peterson survives 2020 he can get a district that mostly resembles Basically forces  Stauber and Hagedorn to run against each other in a primary to face a democrat in a very mildy Tossup/Lean Republican district.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #136 on: July 23, 2019, 08:26:38 am »

If the goal of the CA commission is to make competitive seats, why does it not follow a map similar to 538's redistricting?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Competitive

Currently the 7 Safe GOP seats seem like a fig leaf.
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#PACK THE COURTS
Solid4096
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« Reply #137 on: July 23, 2019, 12:45:28 pm »

If the goal of the CA commission is to make competitive seats, why does it not follow a map similar to 538's redistricting?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Competitive

Currently the 7 Safe GOP seats seem like a fig leaf.

Many of the seats that were supposed to be competitive turned Safe D in 2016.
Some of the seats that were supposed to be Safe R even turned competitive or Safe D in 2016.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #138 on: July 23, 2019, 01:38:13 pm »

If the goal of the CA commission is to make competitive seats, why does it not follow a map similar to 538's redistricting?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Competitive

Currently the 7 Safe GOP seats seem like a fig leaf.

Competitiveness isn't specifically spelled out in the commission's goals,  communities of interest is instead.   A lot of the GOP seats like the one in Northeastern CA and some of the San Diego/Orange County seats were either directly built as COI's or were surrounded by COI's and just got shaped by them.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #139 on: July 23, 2019, 09:39:51 pm »

Any chance of something like this passing in Oregon in 2021?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a39d40-0280-41b6-bbd4-a3f1c423d267



Obviously the numbers aren't going to be precise, but the general idea is putting Salem and Eugene in one district.   The numbers actually work pretty well for the most part,  Washington and Yamhill are almost exactly one district with 2018 numbers.

Multnomah County
811880
Clackamas County
416075
Clatsop County
39764
Columbia County
52377
Tillamook County
26787
Total
1346883
Districts
1.928382593
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Washington County
597695
Yamhill County
107002
Total
704697
Districts
1.008940961
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Eugene (City)
171,245
Salem (City)
173,442
Benton County
92101
Lincoln County
49388
Polk County
85234
Total
571,410
Districts
0.818108995

I think the northwest rural counties are a bit ugly, but not terrible.  
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Blairite
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« Reply #140 on: July 24, 2019, 12:33:36 am »

Any chance of something like this passing in Oregon in 2021?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a39d40-0280-41b6-bbd4-a3f1c423d267



Obviously the numbers aren't going to be precise, but the general idea is putting Salem and Eugene in one district.   The numbers actually work pretty well for the most part,  Washington and Yamhill are almost exactly one district with 2018 numbers.

Multnomah County
811880
Clackamas County
416075
Clatsop County
39764
Columbia County
52377
Tillamook County
26787
Total
1346883
Districts
1.928382593
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Washington County
597695
Yamhill County
107002
Total
704697
Districts
1.008940961
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Eugene (City)
171,245
Salem (City)
173,442
Benton County
92101
Lincoln County
49388
Polk County
85234
Total
571,410
Districts
0.818108995

I think the northwest rural counties are a bit ugly, but not terrible.  
This map underestimates Portland's population growth and needlessly chops up communities of interest (Multnomah and Clackamas Counties, as well as the Northwest Coast should be attached to Washington County; Marion should be left intact, and looping East Salem, Corvallis, and the City of Eugene into one district is disengenuous. Also, this is clearly a 4D-2R map, when a 5D-1R map can easily and fairly be drawn while taking into account simpler county combos (Clackamas and Marion being an obvious one) just like this:
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #141 on: July 24, 2019, 08:06:18 am »

Also, considering how Redistricting is done in Oregon, the state Dems would be fools to not draw 5-1. The only reason they may not is if there are not enough Dem votes left for DeFazio and Schrader and a second Republican pack gets drawn using the Red precincts from the Williamette valley. Look to Bend to get involved in the seats to the west of the Cascades as a starter.

Also, this goes for everything in DRA - treat 2008 numbers with a grain of salt. They are hopelessly outdated and fail to reflect the current coalitions. The simplest way to get better data, without learning GIS, is to open two windows simultaneously and draw your districts from the 2016 map in a 2010 map which has PVI numbers.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #142 on: July 24, 2019, 04:14:19 pm »

Most of Columbia's population is in the southeast and connected rather well to Metro Portland, I think it fits great with Multnomah.  

I don't think bringing Bend into the western districts is feasible, since Oregon state law prohibits "dividing Communities of Common Interests" and at some point (2000..?) all the counties east of the Cascades (including Hood River) are a COI.  

Clatsop and Tillamook probably don't go all that well with Multnomah, but they don't go well with anything really, even Washington.   Right now Clatsop is with OR-1 and Tillamook is in OR-5, which really doesn't make much sense, but again nothing really does with either one.  If anything they probably should all be grouped with a "Coastal Oregon" district going down to Lane County.  They're all pretty isolated.  

Probably the biggest problem is that Salem and Eugene would both want to have their own districts, rather than be lumped together.   Since Eugene has more Dem voters it would pretty much dominate the primary, thus the district.   Salem voters would hate that.
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Sol
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« Reply #143 on: July 25, 2019, 07:58:50 am »

Any chance of something like this passing in Oregon in 2021?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a39d40-0280-41b6-bbd4-a3f1c423d267



Obviously the numbers aren't going to be precise, but the general idea is putting Salem and Eugene in one district.   The numbers actually work pretty well for the most part,  Washington and Yamhill are almost exactly one district with 2018 numbers.

Multnomah County
811880
Clackamas County
416075
Clatsop County
39764
Columbia County
52377
Tillamook County
26787
Total
1346883
Districts
1.928382593
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Washington County
597695
Yamhill County
107002
Total
704697
Districts
1.008940961
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Eugene (City)
171,245
Salem (City)
173,442
Benton County
92101
Lincoln County
49388
Polk County
85234
Total
571,410
Districts
0.818108995

I think the northwest rural counties are a bit ugly, but not terrible.  
This map underestimates Portland's population growth and needlessly chops up communities of interest (Multnomah and Clackamas Counties, as well as the Northwest Coast should be attached to Washington County; Marion should be left intact, and looping East Salem, Corvallis, and the City of Eugene into one district is disengenuous. Also, this is clearly a 4D-2R map, when a 5D-1R map can easily and fairly be drawn while taking into account simpler county combos (Clackamas and Marion being an obvious one) just like this:


Isn't the purple district a little questionable for Democrats?
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Blairite
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« Reply #144 on: July 25, 2019, 12:32:07 pm »

Any chance of something like this passing in Oregon in 2021?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a39d40-0280-41b6-bbd4-a3f1c423d267



Obviously the numbers aren't going to be precise, but the general idea is putting Salem and Eugene in one district.   The numbers actually work pretty well for the most part,  Washington and Yamhill are almost exactly one district with 2018 numbers.

Multnomah County
811880
Clackamas County
416075
Clatsop County
39764
Columbia County
52377
Tillamook County
26787
Total
1346883
Districts
1.928382593
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Washington County
597695
Yamhill County
107002
Total
704697
Districts
1.008940961
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Eugene (City)
171,245
Salem (City)
173,442
Benton County
92101
Lincoln County
49388
Polk County
85234
Total
571,410
Districts
0.818108995

I think the northwest rural counties are a bit ugly, but not terrible.  
This map underestimates Portland's population growth and needlessly chops up communities of interest (Multnomah and Clackamas Counties, as well as the Northwest Coast should be attached to Washington County; Marion should be left intact, and looping East Salem, Corvallis, and the City of Eugene into one district is disengenuous. Also, this is clearly a 4D-2R map, when a 5D-1R map can easily and fairly be drawn while taking into account simpler county combos (Clackamas and Marion being an obvious one) just like this:


Isn't the purple district a little questionable for Democrats?
It's D+6 or so.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #145 on: July 25, 2019, 03:26:00 pm »

Any chance of something like this passing in Oregon in 2021?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a39d40-0280-41b6-bbd4-a3f1c423d267



Obviously the numbers aren't going to be precise, but the general idea is putting Salem and Eugene in one district.   The numbers actually work pretty well for the most part,  Washington and Yamhill are almost exactly one district with 2018 numbers.

Multnomah County
811880
Clackamas County
416075
Clatsop County
39764
Columbia County
52377
Tillamook County
26787
Total
1346883
Districts
1.928382593
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Washington County
597695
Yamhill County
107002
Total
704697
Districts
1.008940961
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Eugene (City)
171,245
Salem (City)
173,442
Benton County
92101
Lincoln County
49388
Polk County
85234
Total
571,410
Districts
0.818108995

I think the northwest rural counties are a bit ugly, but not terrible.  
This map underestimates Portland's population growth and needlessly chops up communities of interest (Multnomah and Clackamas Counties, as well as the Northwest Coast should be attached to Washington County; Marion should be left intact, and looping East Salem, Corvallis, and the City of Eugene into one district is disengenuous. Also, this is clearly a 4D-2R map, when a 5D-1R map can easily and fairly be drawn while taking into account simpler county combos (Clackamas and Marion being an obvious one) just like this:


Isn't the purple district a little questionable for Democrats?
It's D+6 or so.

When I drew the purple district in DRA, I got R+2 12/16 CPVI. Like I said DON"T USE OBAMA 08 NUMBERS! HORRIBLY OUTDATED! Obama+6 in '08 isn't even that strong of a result.
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Blairite
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« Reply #146 on: July 25, 2019, 03:40:05 pm »

Any chance of something like this passing in Oregon in 2021?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a39d40-0280-41b6-bbd4-a3f1c423d267



Obviously the numbers aren't going to be precise, but the general idea is putting Salem and Eugene in one district.   The numbers actually work pretty well for the most part,  Washington and Yamhill are almost exactly one district with 2018 numbers.

Multnomah County
811880
Clackamas County
416075
Clatsop County
39764
Columbia County
52377
Tillamook County
26787
Total
1346883
Districts
1.928382593
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Washington County
597695
Yamhill County
107002
Total
704697
Districts
1.008940961
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Eugene (City)
171,245
Salem (City)
173,442
Benton County
92101
Lincoln County
49388
Polk County
85234
Total
571,410
Districts
0.818108995

I think the northwest rural counties are a bit ugly, but not terrible.  
This map underestimates Portland's population growth and needlessly chops up communities of interest (Multnomah and Clackamas Counties, as well as the Northwest Coast should be attached to Washington County; Marion should be left intact, and looping East Salem, Corvallis, and the City of Eugene into one district is disengenuous. Also, this is clearly a 4D-2R map, when a 5D-1R map can easily and fairly be drawn while taking into account simpler county combos (Clackamas and Marion being an obvious one) just like this:


Isn't the purple district a little questionable for Democrats?
It's D+6 or so.

When I drew the purple district in DRA, I got R+2 12/16 CPVI. Like I said DON"T USE OBAMA 08 NUMBERS! HORRIBLY OUTDATED! Obama+6 in '08 isn't even that strong of a result.
I know. I just assumed this area was trending heavily D. Regardless, you can just swap out east Multnomah County for Sellwood and Lents and shore it up.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #147 on: August 28, 2019, 12:41:30 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?
The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.

Why do you think this?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #148 on: August 28, 2019, 05:32:04 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2019, 08:01:20 am by Zaybay »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?
The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.

Why do you think this?

Well, multiple reasons. CA is redistricted by a commission which prioritizes groups of interest and not political parties. This has the aftereffect of the commission usually creating competitive maps with a good amount of R seats due to how geographically condensed R voters are becoming in the state.

Packing Nunes and McCarthy into the same district really doesnt make sense at all when looking at voter groups and communities of interest. The North of the San Joaquin valley that Nunes reside in has a highly different makeup when compared to the South where McCarthy is. While Nunes represents a minority-plurality seat, McCarthy is still representing a White Majority seat. While Nunes represents Fresno suburbs McCarthy represents the exurban and rural desert of the area. The two areas are vastly different, and if both were combined it would not be considered a seat where CoI was taken into account.

Theres also population to consider; the San Joaquin valley has room for more than 5 congressional seats, even when reducing the seat count from 53 to 52. Due to how the commission loves CoI, that means there must be 5 seats in the valley. Combining Nunes and McCarthy would be basically impossible to do population-wise, instead if the map were to not include Nunes it would be because of a massive landswap between the valley seats that would include Nune's property. Drawing Nunes and McCarthy together basically doesnt work with current growth the valley has undergone.

The San Joaquin valley itself isnt likely for a seat merger. A more likely candidate would be LA, or the very North of the state(where the population has actually declined). Nunes and McCarthy should be appearing in congress together in 2022 unless either retire or Nunes loses.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #149 on: September 15, 2019, 01:30:20 pm »

Currently making a fair map of Texas that respects county lines and communities of interests as much as possible. Basically it would get really ugly for Republicans really quick based on population estimates. Democrats would have four seats in Dallas County alone, another safe seat in Tarrant County, a second swing seat in Tarrant County that voted for Trump and O'Rourke, three seats in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Five seats in Harris County (two light blue, Dem-trending seats), one seat in Fort Bend County, two in Bexar County, one in El Paso County, and three south Texas Democratic seats (I cleaned up the ugly bacon strips and gave Hidalgo County its own seat, another seat is Cameron plus the remainder of Hidalgo, and another is Webb to southern Bexar). Another light blue seat in the Corpus Christi MSA plus the south Texas rurals. Only seat Republicans would gain is the successor to TX-23.

And the Collin County seat I'm drawing would have only been Trump +9. O'Rourke almost definitely won that.

So that's 20 Democratic seats and another 3 swing seats that are also trending Dem fast. Republicans better hope that they control the map drawing process indefinitely here since when the time comes that they don't, they're gonna lose a ton of seats in the metros
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