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January 22, 2021, 01:11:06 PM

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  US House Redistricting: General
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 115158 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #175 on: January 25, 2020, 09:12:55 AM »

Have there been any maps of Michigan redistricting on here? I can't find any.

Several years ago, there was a long-running thread with Muon, Torie, and jimrtex posting maps. Youíd probably have to dig deep into search results to find it.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #176 on: April 18, 2020, 04:50:29 PM »

There is somewhere. I made one that was pretty fair but it had 2010 pop estimates instead of 2018.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #177 on: June 13, 2020, 08:05:23 AM »

Are National Democrats still fine with Virginia Democrats letting the voters approve a measure that would turn over redistricting from the legislature to the 6-1 Republican Supreme Court? If so, this has to be one of the dumbest moves blinded by self-righteousness Iíve ever seen
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lfromnj
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« Reply #178 on: June 13, 2020, 05:40:15 PM »

Are National Democrats still fine with Virginia Democrats letting the voters approve a measure that would turn over redistricting from the legislature to the 6-1 Republican Supreme Court? If so, this has to be one of the dumbest moves blinded by self-righteousness Iíve ever seen

Even if the commission isn't there the GOP will just sue like D's did in PA/NC
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #179 on: June 24, 2020, 08:37:47 PM »

 McCaskill thows so much shade, she essentially confirms she's not running again:

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Congrats, Griffin!
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« Reply #180 on: June 25, 2020, 10:57:22 AM »

I mean, she's not wrong Tongue
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #181 on: June 25, 2020, 11:16:34 AM »

In fairness, if Dems wanted a majority black district there is not much else they could have done?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #182 on: June 25, 2020, 11:22:03 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 11:46:23 AM by lfromnj »

In fairness, if Dems wanted a majority black district there is not much else they could have done?

2010 redistricting in Missouri actually had a D governor and they had just above 1/3 th emajority in the state house.. The deal was to keep Cleaver and Clay safe from primary challenges but kick out Russ Carnahan and they bribed black delegates to do this as Cleaver and Clay are both black.

So MO 2nd was made a bit safer than in a more fair map and it would have flipped in 2018 without Cleaver and Clay's backstabbing. I don't think a 3rd D district was really possible but I think it would have flipped in 2018 with a more fairly drawn map.

Good on Air Claire for calling them out.

Here's the MO 2nd drawn fairly with 2010 numbers


Blue is 51% black VRA while green is the suburban district that is Trump +6 compared to the current Trump +11, this district was lost by 3 points in 2018 so this new district flips in 2018 by a point or two.(the district goes to St Charles county which is north instead of the more compact Jefferson county because st Charles belongs with the well educated white suburbs of st louis compared to the more WWC Jefferson county which has zoomed super hard right although people didn't know this in 2010.



Here is the district with Jefferson county

This moves it to Trump +10 although Kander won both variations of the green district by 2 points. I guess this variation might have allowed Carnahan to survive in 2012 although he goes down in 2014, not sure if this flips back to D in 2018.
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SENATOR Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock
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« Reply #183 on: December 02, 2020, 01:10:38 AM »

McCaskill thows so much shade, she essentially confirms she's not running again:



God, I wish McCaskill's politics weren't so bad, because I really want to like her. I suppose I'll have to be happy with Kander.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #184 on: December 07, 2020, 12:26:06 PM »

https://www.theday.com/article/20201205/NWS12/201209641

"Even before Covid-19, 2600 people a week were leaving NYC"

https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2020/12/02/western-new-york-population-clock.html

"Western New York loses another person every 2 hours and 41 minutes"

The first article goes more general after detailing New York City, looking at the national.

Does the state lose 2 seats? The apportionment estimates I've found are all end of last year, meaning pre-Covid and that's not baked in. Its impact is probably limited due to how close the lockdown occurred to the magical census date but it has to have some effect.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #185 on: December 07, 2020, 06:04:50 PM »

It'll be very close, but I'm going to guess it loses two. New York being hit hard by covid so early means that it'll be one of the few states to have substantial covid related deaths before the census was conducted, which could make the difference.
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