A scary fact about 1980 (user search)
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  A scary fact about 1980 (search mode)
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Author Topic: A scary fact about 1980  (Read 2735 times)
J. J.
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Posts: 32,892
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« on: November 13, 2004, 06:16:42 PM »

Give all of the non-majority states to Carter to offset the Anderson factor.



Dem 281
Rep 257

Reagan wins popular vote, Carter wins election

I don't agree.  Here are the states that would have most likely gone to Carter:

AL (9 EV), AR (6), DE (3), ME (4), MA (14), NY (41), SC (Cool, TN (10), VT (3),  for a total of 98 EV.

IA (Cool, NC (13), WI (11), would have been close and might have gone to Carter. 
Without Anderson, Carter might have gotten an additional 130 EV, or a total of 179 EV.

It would still have been an EV blowout.
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J. J.
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2004, 06:38:24 PM »

Like I've been posting, the Democrats are a generation behind.  :-)
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J. J.
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 32,892
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2004, 08:45:50 PM »

Take, for example, Kentucky:

Carter got 48%, Anderson got 2%, Reagan got 49%. Don't you think the 2% would go to Carter?

I am wrong about Illinois, though. Maybe a few others.

No.  Some Anderson voters would have not voted for either, abstained or not showed up at all.  Some, probably a small number, would have voted for Reagan.  The rough formula I used 50% not voting, 40% voting for Carter, 10% voting for Reagan.  Even if you juggle the numbers a bit, e.g. 40%, 55%, 5%, you still get the same result.
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