Jewish Vote in 2030

[Hitchabrut]

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[M]

Always nice to meet a Bushie MOT... The Russians are hard to predict permanently, they vote with the Russians rather than with the Jews; now they are overwhelmingly GOP but this may not last w/o a Castro factor. The Orthodox vote (69% for Bush!, counting Hassidim and Chabad) may be sustained or even increased, with religious Jews, like most religious Christians, being pro-GOP (will this spread to religious blacks?)

Then there's the security issue. The Israelis and man others back Bush because he's clearly the more pro-Israel candidate. Now, we're in the middle of an era when things are happening big and fast in the Middle East. Most of the trends there look quite hopeful, but I have my eye on Iran, as I assume you do too; I'm praying our people take the resolute action need to keep the worst weapons from falling into the hands of the worst dictators, to paraphrase the president; nuclear Ayatollahs would be no less than catastrophic. Now, on the more direct Israel-Palestinianian conflict, I think a final status settlement is possible in the next four years.

So let's examine the scenarios and their impacts on voting. If Israel were wiped out by Iranian nukes (G-d forbid!) there would be a huge group of refugees who would largely settle here... does Bush get a blame factor, or do Jews worry a LOT more about security? I pray we never, every have to examine this scenario; but if the Europeans, including Blair, get their Iran deal approved we well may.

Continuing low-key conflict in the Territories and possibly Lebanon- GOP preserves, but does not greatly expand current gains with the security vote.

De facto peace thanks to fence, but Israel remains a pariah- maybe a significant pro-GOP swing.

Israel and Palestine establish final status agreement, other Islamic states recognize Israel at major conference, Iran and its proxies Syria and Hezbollah somehow dealt with- Israel becomes a normal state, probably joins EU, the US Jewish vote stops considering Israel as a major factor in the same way Italian-Americans don't vote on Italo-American relations, and I think the Jewish vote actually swings Left, if you can imagine that.

Now, in these past few scenarioes I was considering the Israelis and the rest of the security vote- that which considers Israel and terrorism in its decision progress. Most of the rest are hardcore Left, so they will likely remain in this camp unless a.) something major happens that transforms or divides or ends the Left as we know it; or b.) the maor party platforms change drastically, and/or a major new party(s?) arises.

BTW, republicanjew18, where are you at school? I happen to also be Republican, Jewish, and 18; I'm at Brandeis.

[muon2]

Your analysis is good M, but I think it will be hard to predict how a group votes in 2030. I would expect, almost certainly, some form of political realignment between now and that date. Since I don't know the issues and personalities that will drive the next realignment, I can't tell how individual groups within the electorate will respond.

BTW, as an old alumnus, how is your first semester going?

[M]

Pretty well, thanks! I've got Advanced Intermediate Hebrew, Basic Yiddish, Music of the Jewish People, a writing-intensive seminar on medieval Spain (or al-Andalus or Spharad, depending on who you're talking to), and Politics 101A- Political Parties, Interest Groups, and Public Opinion (a class of 21; I am one of two Republicans. The other was the campaign manager for a local GOP candidate for the state legislature, Bob Finneran; he lost). Personally, I love the university, both the academics and more especially the people; still no girlfriend, though. Ooh, and I just played in my first snow this weekend! This stuff is fantastic!!! Howd you keep it secret for so long?

[muon2]

Pretty well, thanks! I've got Advanced Intermediate Hebrew, Basic Yiddish, Music of the Jewish People, a writing-intensive seminar on medieval Spain (or al-Andalus or Spharad, depending on who you're talking to), and Politics 101A- Political Parties, Interest Groups, and Public Opinion (a class of 21; I am one of two Republicans. The other was the campaign manager for a local GOP candidate for the state legislature, Bob Finneran; he lost). Personally, I love the university, both the academics and more especially the people; still no girlfriend, though. Ooh, and I just played in my first snow this weekend! This stuff is fantastic!!! Howd you keep it secret for so long?

Snow? No big secret there. I hope you still like it as much after a couple of winters. Then again, I lived in MN before heading to Waltham. Boston had mild winters in comparison. So winter there was no big deal.

[Subliminal]

60-40 Democrat.

[zachman]

As an atheistic reform Jew I see things in a different light than M from Brandeis. Israeli policy isn't a major issue that effects my politics. I don't think it is the forefront issue to most reform Jews either. The hot button issues to most Jews (at least the mooderate ones from NH) are:
1. Public education
2. Not mixing church & state
3. Opposition to militarism

I expect party platforms to change quite a bit, but I expect the Democrats to continue to hold positions that favor the second and third issues, and so I predict that there will not be much change by 2030.

[Cashcow]

About 75% of Jews vote Democrat as of now. I don't really see the Republicans dominating on the Israel issue, as Democrats have been carefully reminding the Jewish community that they support Israel as well. I think the Orthodox Jews are the only ones that tend to lean conservative. Most Jews are like me: not highly religious, and moderately liberal.

26 years from now? It all depends on Israel.

[Akno21]

Most Jews I know, through family and friends, are fairly liberal on social issues, and only lean Conservative because they are extremly rich.

Jews are not single-issue voters, no matter what the Republicans say.

[Lunar]

I think it really depends on what's happening in Israel.

If Israel dies out as an issue, I see them voting with their other demographics (rich/poor, etc.).   If Israel is still an issue, then it really depends on the context.

[Defarge]

The Jewish community will continue to shift rightwards as the distance between the current generation and the immigrant generation increases. 

[M]

Israel is THE issue for some. Many of these have moved right. The rest are generally not issue voters, but ideological-partisan voters, or strongly influenced by such considerations; some of these also indicate Israel as the chief issue but are hard to reach on it. This explains the logically unjustifiable opposition to the Iraq war among many Israel-top issue voters.

Yes, younger Jews do appear to be more flexible/lean right. I suggest this is the fourth generation (though yes, some go back way further, including part of my family):
1st- Immigrants fleeing pogroms. These became Democrats (or Socialists or Communists) because many anti-czarists were socialists anyway, and the immigrant machines grabbed 'em.
2nd- Roosevelt Democrats.
3rd- Boomers, Vietnam Democrats.
4th- This generation. Tough to predict among Jews as among the rest of us.

Now, my maternal great grandparents were 1sters here, I don't think they were that political because they were religious but they were big patriots. My paternal great grandparents were in the South, and became part of the Solid Dem bloc. My maternal
grandparents were hawkish Roosevelt Dems until the end; my dad's dad died in 1960, his mom voted Wallace and then became a Republican, she's my last living grandparent but we aren't close. Now my mom is in the 3rd generation, she was way left (for McCarthy, for McGovern, anti-Vietnam counterculture) till Carter, became a Reaganite, opposed Clinton strongly on healthcare (she's a doctor in private practice) and is now a solid GOPer. My dad became a Republican at like 14, adored Goldwater, campaigned for Nixon in his home state of SC (still has a bumper sticker in the attic- "help uncle Strom elect Nixon!"), was for Vietnam (my parents still disagree strongly on this).

Now, I'm the product of a weird mix for a Jew- Southern Republican "Strom-Goldwater-Reagan" dad (started irreligious, became more so but doesn't vote on it), Kennedy-LBJ-Vietnam mom from Texas who started religious, left it in her great 60s-70s rebellion, and eventually returned and is a doctor in private practice; I'm just as unique as you'd expect. Now, most of my GOP correligionists are either from the small but slightly growing group that really likes the party as a whole on a range of issues, including but not dominated by Israel (I'm sort of part of this group), or are voting Bush on Israel (and yes, the Orthodox shift to Bush tends to cite Israel and terrorism and only Israel and terrorism as reasons for this shift, though with them I think it's deeper). The anti-Bushies, except for a small group of 9/11 Bushies who went back but still have a soft spot for him and had trouble deciding till the end, generally give me the whole range of ideological-partisan issues and messages, or are effectively not issue voters but part of an entire culture (the elite cultural left). These are much harder to reach.

Subliminal, tov lirot otcha acharei kol kach harbei zman. Eifo hayita?

[qwerty]

Jews for GOP!!!

[elcorazon]

Jews are NOT one issue voters.  I have no idea what's going to happen in the next 25 years, but I seriously doubt that Jews will become a majority Republican based solely on Israel.  Only based on issues here in the US will it happen. 

Frankly, I see a scenario where Jews move more to the left, but I'd guess that Jews will continue to be a reliable Democratic constituency at a similar or slightly less solid level to where they are now. 

I'd guess that Jews tend to be in more urban or suburban areas which are generally trending to the dems.  They are generally liberal on social issues.  There is a fear in the Jewish community of things like school prayer, faith-based initiatives (which are ALWAYS Christian), other church state separation issues, and Jews tend to be pro-choice.

Orthodox Jews are MUCH more likely to be one-issue voters and to trend Republican, but they are a minority of Jews, and do have some of the same issues with the right that other Jews have.

Wealthy Jews have trended a bit to the right as well, but I don't see any reason to think Jews are becoming any wealthier than they are now.

by the way, I'm Jewish, not that it makes any difference.

[Subliminal]

Subliminal, tov lirot otcha acharei kol kach harbei zman. Eifo hayita?

Tov lirot otcha od baham! Ani Ahiti askook in Beit Sefer aval ani inassehe lahasot post me-day baham.

[badnarikin04]

Bush will exterminate the Jews.

[Subliminal]

Bush will exterminate the Jews.

That's not funny.

[DanielX]

Bush will exterminate the Jews.

This is one reason why I'm not going to support you in Fantasy politics any longer.

Unless you are kidding, or happened to be stoned or drunk when posting this....

[MAS117]

Israel is definalty the issue. Alot of retired Jews in Florida didnt like Kerry that much, but liked Lieberman on the ticket. Most of the people in my Jewish community, liked Kerry. There were still some Bushers out there though.

[Hitchabrut]

Bush will exterminate the Jews.

That's not funny.

So that's why libertarians are so easy on drugs...

[ian]

Being Jewish myself, I can definitely see growing trends of conservatism in the midst of my Jewish counterparts.  I voted 50/50, even though I pray otherwise.

[Hitchabrut]

What I am wondering, is if there are any very conservative states where more Jews voted for Bush than Kerry or if Bush came close.

[Cashcow]

Bush would probably need a 30% lead nationally to do that. Even McGovern got most of the Jewish population.

[TeePee4Prez]

I worked at a polling place in a heavily Jewish neighborhood with many Russians.  The German-Hungarian Jews who have been in this part of NE Philly for a while voted strongly Kerry.  However, I noticed the Russian Jews were heavily Bush.  Funny, a lot of campaigns had literature in English, Hebrew, and Russian.  There were Kenney, Mirarchi, and Bush-Cheny signs in Russian and Hebrew here.

[Hitchabrut]

1 word, IrishDemocrat, Communism. It's the effect of being oppressed by a far-left government turning Russian Jews to vote as differently from Communist ideals as possible. The same dynamic occured with Jews who came in in the early 1900's, except reversed. They fled fascism and authoritarian ditatorships and voted as far left as possible.