CA: Rasmussen: Boxer narrowly leads
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 18, 2024, 07:19:27 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 Senatorial Election Polls
  CA: Rasmussen: Boxer narrowly leads
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: CA: Rasmussen: Boxer narrowly leads  (Read 3895 times)
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,868


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 22, 2010, 01:30:23 PM »

New Poll: California Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-10-21

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, I: 3%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
Whacker77
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 763


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2010, 01:40:51 PM »

I guess until Boxer clears 50%, this one is worth watching.  This race could hinge on the early races.  If there is a big wave in the early time zones, it might affect a few votes.  I think that's stretch though.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2010, 02:05:18 PM »

California votes heavily absentee. Even if Fiorina can pull into the lead sometime late next week that may be too late.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,335


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2010, 02:25:22 PM »

I know it's become popular these days to point out that Boxer can't hit 50, but the fact is that she doesn't need to hit 50 to win. If minor candidates got up to 4% of the vote in the senate race and up to 6-8% in the governor's race, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Logged
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2010, 11:33:03 PM »

Hey, not bad.  I'm still weary of Carly's odds in the end, but this is encouraging.
Logged
Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2010, 04:35:23 PM »

I know it's become popular these days to point out that Boxer can't hit 50, but the fact is that she doesn't need to hit 50 to win. If minor candidates got up to 4% of the vote in the senate race and up to 6-8% in the governor's race, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

It's never good for an incumbent to be below 50 consistently this late in the game.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2010, 04:36:51 PM »

I know it's become popular these days to point out that Boxer can't hit 50, but the fact is that she doesn't need to hit 50 to win. If minor candidates got up to 4% of the vote in the senate race and up to 6-8% in the governor's race, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

It's never good for an incumbent to be below 50 consistently this late in the game.

Not good, no....but assuming that third parties take a good deal of the vote.....the "safe" minimum that Boxer needs is definitely under 50.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,683
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2010, 04:43:18 PM »

Boxer being under 50 isn't that much of a problem, a lead is a lead and she's maintaining a consistent one. And as I've stated before, Fiorina's support is not moving at all.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2010, 04:49:53 PM »

I have a felling that the control of the Senate will be up in the air until after midnight.

I'd still predict that the Democrats hold it, however.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2010, 04:51:11 PM »

I don't know if anyone noticed it or not, but Boxer is under 50%.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,207
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2010, 04:58:37 PM »

I don't know if anyone noticed it or not, but Boxer is under 50%.

Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2010, 05:00:51 PM »

I have a felling that the control of the Senate will be up in the air until after midnight.

I'd still predict that the Democrats hold it, however.

Sounds like your 1.5% margin in Pennsylvania 2 years ago...Smiley
Logged
Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2010, 05:18:07 PM »

Isn't there an old "rule of thumb" that undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent? If that is so, then Carly may have a chance after all.

Not that I think she will win. My money is on Boxer wins by a margin of two points, and laughably, Carly will probably do better then Megasaur.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,205


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2010, 05:19:05 PM »

I don't know if anyone noticed it or not, but Boxer is under 50%.

So what? There are also 4 minor party candidates on the ballot.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2010, 05:49:25 PM »

Isn't there an old "rule of thumb" that undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent? If that is so, then Carly may have a chance after all.

The "undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent" rule, along with the "incumbent under 50% is in trouble" rule, is arbitrary and silly. I'd like to see quantitative data on either.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,555


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2010, 05:56:59 PM »

Isn't there an old "rule of thumb" that undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent? If that is so, then Carly may have a chance after all.

The "undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent" rule, along with the "incumbent under 50% is in trouble" rule, is arbitrary and silly. I'd like to see quantitative data on either.

If that rule was true, Bruce Lunsford, Ronnie Musgrove, Tom Strickland and Jim Martin would all be in the Senate today. 
Logged
Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2010, 06:17:55 PM »

Isn't there an old "rule of thumb" that undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent? If that is so, then Carly may have a chance after all.

The "undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent" rule, along with the "incumbent under 50% is in trouble" rule, is arbitrary and silly. I'd like to see quantitative data on either.

If that rule was true, Bruce Lunsford, Ronnie Musgrove, Tom Strickland and Jim Martin would all be in the Senate today. 

Ah, I see. It's just something I heard recently... In any case, I say Boxer wins.
Logged
California8429
A-Bob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,786
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2010, 06:22:36 PM »

Minor party candidates are always overrepresented in polling. And they are very likely to vote anti-incumbent these people that say they'll vote minor but don't. Plus undecidedes will break to anti-incumbent and the momentum for the last month is on Fiorina's side IMO. And republicans are more active in non-presidential years, plus huge fall in democratic young voters this time around, plus a few empty ballots in this race or all races coming from democrats...

This race will probably be 49.5-48.5 ish for Fiorina.
Logged
sg0508
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,070
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2010, 06:54:07 PM »

CA's 3rd parties usually get at least 2-3% points and normally, they are a liberal party that would siphon support from the democrats.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,335


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2010, 07:39:07 PM »

I know it's become popular these days to point out that Boxer can't hit 50, but the fact is that she doesn't need to hit 50 to win. If minor candidates got up to 4% of the vote in the senate race and up to 6-8% in the governor's race, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

It's never good for an incumbent to be below 50 consistently this late in the game.

48% is 50% in California. Lots of third party strength here and I expect it to be even stronger this year.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,205


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2010, 07:48:07 PM »

CA's 3rd parties usually get at least 2-3% points and normally, they are a liberal party that would siphon support from the democrats.

They can get a fair amount more than that. For example, they got 8.4% in the 1994 Senate race, despite that being a close race.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2010, 07:55:39 PM »

Boxer is under 50%.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,207
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2010, 07:58:34 PM »


Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2010, 08:01:55 PM »

I have a felling that the control of the Senate will be up in the air until after midnight.

I'd still predict that the Democrats hold it, however.

Sounds like your 1.5% margin in Pennsylvania 2 years ago...Smiley

Two races on the west coast, CA, WA, and I'm predicting an eight seat gain in the Senate.

Nine possible seats east of the Rockies, PA, WV, IN, IL, AR, WI, NE, CO, NV.

Late night Senate determination isn't too much of a stretch.
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,960
Slovakia


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 0.35

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2010, 08:03:06 PM »

Isn't there an old "rule of thumb" that undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent? If that is so, then Carly may have a chance after all.

The "undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent" rule, along with the "incumbent under 50% is in trouble" rule, is arbitrary and silly. I'd like to see quantitative data on either.

If that rule was true, Bruce Lunsford, Ronnie Musgrove, Tom Strickland and Jim Martin would all be in the Senate today. 

a "rule of thumb" is not a hard and fast rule. it seems to hold true often enough that it is plausible to consider among other indicators.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250399/embattled-incumbents-those-final-poll-numbers-are-often-painfully-accurate
 
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 15 queries.