will there be ethnic polarization in voting in the future?
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  will there be ethnic polarization in voting in the future?
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Author Topic: will there be ethnic polarization in voting in the future?  (Read 1245 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: October 31, 2011, 10:19:57 PM »

I remember hearing somewhere that by 2015 a majority of the under 18 crowd will be nonwhite in America. Will this lead to sort of a balkanization of America with ethnic clashes/wars, pogroms and ethnically polarized voting? It seems like the 2010 election was sort of a harbinger of things to come.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2011, 11:07:34 PM »

I very much doubt it would lead to war, but I could easily imagine ethnically polarised voting. I could just as easily imagine Hispanics being "adopted" as whites, though.
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2011, 12:43:05 AM »

I remember hearing somewhere that by 2015 a majority of the under 18 crowd will be nonwhite in America. Will this lead to sort of a balkanization of America with ethnic clashes/wars, pogroms and ethnically polarized voting? It seems like the 2010 election was sort of a harbinger of things to come.
Stuff like this is why the US is going down the crapper.  I thought America is suppose to be united regardless of color, ethnicity and race?  We need fair elections based on character and attributes alone.
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phk
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2011, 03:37:10 PM »

There already is ethnic polarization in voting.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2011, 03:46:44 PM »

I think voting will depolarize eventually, and will be based more on economics. Whites will be about 50-55% R (WASPs vs. blue-collar voters), blacks will be around 75% D, Hispanics around 55% D, and Asians about 50-50.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2011, 01:07:33 AM »

I think voting will depolarize eventually, and will be based more on economics. Whites will be about 50-55% R (WASPs vs. blue-collar voters), blacks will be around 75% D, Hispanics around 55% D, and Asians about 50-50.

Don't think you can pinpoint white voters that easily.  Will the WASPs be Rs and the blue collars Ds, or vice versa?  There are economically conservative, Christian evangelical WASPs along with the academic, Northeastern liberal WASPs.  With blue collar "ethnic" whites (basically myself) there's religious vs. secular.  I agree blacks and Hispanics will be less D in the future and I know the GOP will cool it on the immigration rhetoric.  They pretty much gain a large number of Hispanic social conservatives if the anti-immigration stuff dies off which is simple and scary for us Dems, but will the Teabaggers let the GOP do it?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2011, 02:08:22 PM »

The Tea Party is a fad just like the New Left was.
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lowtech redneck
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2011, 11:03:35 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2011, 11:08:15 PM by lowtech redneck »

I remember hearing somewhere that by 2015 a majority of the under 18 crowd will be nonwhite in America. Will this lead to sort of a balkanization of America with ethnic clashes/wars, pogroms and ethnically polarized voting? It seems like the 2010 election was sort of a harbinger of things to come.

Wars and pogroms, no.  We already have ethnically polarized voting, and it may get worse before it gets better.  Under a worst-case scenario violent ethnic clashes are possible, but I think it far more likely that the worst outbreaks (outside of criminal gangs) will more resemble the ethnic fueds that (used to?) take place in New York as recently as the early eighties (there was some sort of bizarre fued between the Catholics and Jews in an ethnically and religiously integrated neighborhood when my family lived on Long Island back when I was two-I'm not aware of any violence, but there was palpable tension*).

*The first thing the neighborhood kids said to my sisters was to ask whether we were Jewish or Catholic; being Protestants, we and the Buddhist family down the street were graciously allowed to stay the hell out of it.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2011, 12:11:23 AM »

There is ethnic polarization in voting now and there will be in the future.  I think minorities (myself included) are turned off by the policies and rhetoric they see from the Republican Party and its affiliates.  There are simply too many Tom Tancredo/Steve King/Newt Gingrich/Rush Limbaugh types around.  Supporting an electric border fence as "we do that with livestock all the time" or saying that Obama represents a "Kenyan, anti-colonial worldview" is not going to win a lot of minority support.

I would never vote for a candidate just because he or she was a certain race.  Obviously the issues are more important.  But I don't buy the notion of being 100% colorblind about my elected representation.  Our society is too complex to say that it makes no difference at all. Members of groups that are not a part of the majority and/or have been historically discriminated against often bring a different and valuable perspective to the table because of those experiences.  Otherwise you wind up with the spectacle of Anita Hill being grilled by a tone-deaf all-male Senate Judiciary Committee about sexual harassment.  The fact that so many women got elected in 1992 was no accident.

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