How likely is my hypothesis?
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  How likely is my hypothesis?
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Poll
Question: ^
#1
Very possible
 
#2
Somewhat possible
 
#3
Unlikely but possible
 
#4
Near impossible
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 24

Author Topic: How likely is my hypothesis?  (Read 1552 times)
Snowstalker Mk. II
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« on: October 23, 2011, 06:56:41 PM »

For a while, the basic trend we're seeing continues--Democrats start grabbing the Southwest, Republicans the Midwest. However, after (insert failed GOP president here in the 2030s-2040s) is term-limited, (Democrat) wins a decisive victory focusing not only on the New Democratic base but also reaching out to Midwestern and Southern blue-collar voters. In a landslide re-election, white Southerners vote Democratic for the first time in nearly a century. His VP from the South is elected after him, but loses to a Western Republican who, naturally, works on the opposite strategy--win back the West and the Northeast, with social liberalism now less of a factor. Therefore, many wealthy suburban areas swing hard towards the GOP. Within a few years, the boundaries have stabilized in two realigning elections. Here is the election of 2060:



Not bothering with EV totals, but narrow GOP victory. The Democrat is some Cajun guy, the Republican is some WASP.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2011, 08:47:23 PM »

I doubt anyone in 1932 would have expected the electoral maps since 1992... so a lot can change...
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2011, 08:52:44 PM »

I doubt anyone in 1932 would have expected the electoral maps since 1992... so a lot can change...

Exactly, which is why I went with something pretty close to the opposite of the current perceived trend.
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Jackson
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2011, 09:55:28 PM »

The west coast isn't voting Republican under that scenario unless the Democrat is running on a platform of banning abortion and sending latinos, asians, and gays to death camps.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2011, 10:58:54 PM »

I'd like it!!

'Looks like 1976 all over again.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2011, 10:36:08 PM »

I'm hoping for a GOP that can take MI, IL, & PA easily. Sadly, that doesn't balance out with my hopes of holding down the South & the West just due to the fact that it'd be hard to have that large a coalition.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2011, 11:01:03 PM »

I doubt it'll be that drastic. I think that the Republicans will gradually gain tin the Midwest and the Northeast, and the Democrats will expand on the South's Atlantic Coast and Southwest, but I don't think Alabama or California will switch allegiance any time soon...

Though I love that map! It looks very good. I miss the old Civil War maps.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2011, 02:43:34 AM »

Of course everything can happen, but this seems pretty unlikely to me. The South is going to stay GOP for a while, and if you're looking for a dem-trending region it's definitely the Southwest.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2011, 06:37:01 AM »

Of course everything can happen, but this seems pretty unlikely to me. The South is going to stay GOP for a while, and if you're looking for a dem-trending region it's definitely the Southwest.

Dude the map is in 2060.

20f***in'60.
Not 2020.

I could very easily see this type of reversal happening by then.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2011, 06:37:42 AM »

The west coast isn't voting Republican under that scenario unless the Democrat is running on a platform of banning abortion and sending latinos, asians, and gays to death camps.

Because obviously the West Coast is going to be Democratic forever......just like the Solid South.

Oh wait.........
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Mechaman
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2011, 06:47:14 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2011, 04:26:28 PM by Cult of Personality »

I put down somewhat possible, although my opinion is much closer to "possible" (which isn't an option on here).

"Very possible" implies it would be very easy for a realignment to happen.  The other two options imply that political demographics are set in stone and can't be changed.  Anybody who has honestly researched electoral history knows that's not true.  I mean a lot can change in fifty years.  If you told a Massachusetts Republican in 1878 that a Democrat would win Massachusetts in 1928 in a GOP landslide they would laugh in your face.

Kind of the same impression I'm getting reading poll results to be honest.

If this hypothetical took place in 2020 I would understand the responses......but 2060?
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2011, 11:39:21 PM »

It can happen, I voted somewhat possible.
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2011, 01:07:08 PM »

anymore maps?
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