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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2012 election
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Author Topic: 2012 election  (Read 5174 times)
leatherface
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« on: October 14, 2010, 05:27:19 pm »

I have a scenario, my character is Michael McKenna, he is a Republican and is a compsite of the best traits of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and even Ronald Reagan. He is Governor of Colorado, connected to the Guggenheim's is young and attractive, he wins in 2008 by landslide proportions and uses his mandate to secure a reform agenda tackling the economic upheavals that has brought the economy to its knees, like Obama he wins a Nobel Peace Prize not in 2009, but rather in 2010 on the basis of a breakthrough on Nuclear Security and Arms Reduction, a treaty is signed but there are no political benefits in the near term. However during the second half of his first term as McKenna gears up for reelection, he begins to apply pressure on Iran to cease its Uranium enrichment program on the basis of the "trust but Verify" mantra used by Reagan against the Soviets and also because of Iran's suspected Nuclear ambitions. Tensions escalate, as McKenna under pressure from Israel and also due to evidence secured by satellite surveillance of North Korea's transportation of hardware and yellowcake to Bandar Abbas, Iran's principal seaport in the Persian Gulf. McKenna authorizes the mining of the harbor and the CIA establishes proof, that Iran is transporting there weapons to Syria in advance of the expected UN inspection. Already McKenna has been reelected and subsequent to his victory he instructs his Secretary of State to request that the UN modify the inspection regime to one which is more random and regular. The CIA acting in concert sabotages the rail-link from Iran to Syria, by destroying the Veresk bridge, however a passenger train is travelling over the bridge at the time of the explosion and over 300 civilians are victims. My question based on this scenario is how well would McKenna do against say a Democrat from a state like Massachusetts
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Cath
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2010, 06:20:37 pm »

Welcome to the forum Smiley

Is McKenna a Senator? Is the Massachusetts Democrat President? Could use a few more details, and in the future, this might go better in Election What-ifs.

I'd like to see more of thie McKenna character, though, even if he was only elected in 2008 (or was that re-election?).
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leatherface
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2010, 08:18:01 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2010, 08:35:12 pm by leatherface »

McKenna wins first term in 2008 and wins another four years in the White House in the 2012 election, he has been Governor of Colorado for two terms, and his challenger in 2012 is a Democrat by the name of John Samuels, and has already served in the United States Senate from Massachusetts, and is handicapped by his Jewish background and fails to even carry his home state on Election Day, but has the consolation of picking up Vermont instead along with the District of Columbia, which by my calculations gives the challenger a measly 6 electoral votes, he does even worse than Alf Landon did against FDR in 1936 (Landon also carried Vermont), there are echoes of 1956, when Stevenson couldn't even manage to carry his homestate of Illinois against Ike but yet did carry neighboring Missouri. Getting back to McKenna, he is Roman Catholic on his father's side, has a war record to die for (he served in Panama and the Persian Gulf was born on December 1st 1964, served in Congress before going to the Governorship. He is traumatised by his father's violent death, he was on board the TWA flight which blew up over Lockerbie, and is violently opposed to terrorism of any sort, this blind-spot causes confusion as he equates Iran in its current embodiment as the main exporter of terrorism and his desire to achieve a comprehensive and binding  agreement on Nuclear Security is being thwarted by the Iranian's and his determination to pursue regime change should or could become an ambition of his second term, here is my McKenna electoral map, can you do better. In my scenario he
wins 67% and wins by over thirty-one million more votes
How would your map and scenario be like as I'm a newbie how do I include my map with this message?
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2010, 04:48:28 pm »



This. I added margins, too.
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leatherface
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2010, 05:21:00 pm »

That's interesting, I came up with about the same, but I have taken the margin thing a bit further, by going to those elections which occurred on Nov. 6 (e.g. 1860, 1888, 1900, 1928, 1956 and 1984), the election as anybody will notice falls on November 6, my method involves going to each individual state (Hawaii and Alaska are difficult) and adding and subtracting the total Republican and Democratic votes and using the total percentage, I can arrive at a figure which is realistic enough. Anyway anybody got a better procedure, I'd be interested. You will notice that Eisenhower in 1958, Reagan in 1986, FDR in 1938 all were victims of the second-term or six year itch where there party suffers disastrous losses, McKenna with his problems with Iran and a recaltricant congress is facing difficult challenges facing into 2014, his party will likely lose both the House and Senate, but he could make a comeback of sorts, shades of Ike in '59 or Reagan in '87. Any ideas how the 2016 electoral contest might work out, and could the Republicans win there 'third term' as George Bush did in '88. Any ideas on his Vice President, I came up with one, Raymond Lewis and his backyard is Georgia, can anybody plot how the 2016 contest might develop. How do I post maps, as I am a newbie
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2010, 06:43:58 pm »


Click on the calculator icon at the top, and you should see a map. You can change the parties and margins and things like that. You can also toy around with different years. Then click "Show Map Link" and you can copy/paste it onto a post.
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leatherface
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2010, 01:29:02 pm »

I tried this procedure, clicked the the show map link button and tried pasting in map, but no luck. Am i missing something or maybe I doing something wrong.
Here's what I got when I tried to include code I got from the map I designed, the code appeared in the show map link window.

Sorry, you have not had a minimum of 20 posts in order to include links.
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Cath
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2010, 03:16:09 pm »

You only have four posts as of now. In order to get 20 posts, I recommend commenting on timelines, or writing one with regular updates. Remember, you can always comment on my timeline, which is under the picture of "MorrisonHotel" in my signature. Wink
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leatherface
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2010, 04:19:09 pm »

If anyone see's this a familiar, it's because it is, McKenna has almost completed his second term. The GOP is set to nominate the incumbent Vice President and the Democrats are likely to choose Floyd Brewster, Kentucky's two term Senator to run. The first lady, Katherine McKenna is a virtual shoo-in to win the U.S. Senate seat from Pennsylvania (shades of Hillary Clinton), in my version of political history, there was no Bush or Clinton dynamic, instead the first lady's father served as President for eight years during the 90's, she is politically ambitious but not as shrill as Hillary Clinton and could be mistaken for a cross between Lady Bird and Laura Bush. Katherine McKenna wins her election, and despite all the money spent by the Republicans, Brewster manages to win. The next four years are troubling, the news which dominates is that Saudi Arabia's monarchy falls and a islamic Republic replaces it, Brewster has good instincts on how to deal with the situation and is more practical and not as idealistic as some Democrats had previously imagined, the upheaval in the middle east has a negative impact on the stock market and Republicans do reasonably well in the mid-terms as a result, Brewster's reliance on diplomacy begins to lose its cache as the 2020 election approaches, and the Republicans turn to Timothy Young, a well regarded retired two term governor of montana and despite his anti-establishment credentials, his brother was a deceased Vice President during the 90's and in order to generate wider appeal, Young is compelled to choose Katherine McKenna, as she has a brand name, political pedigree, hails from a electorally rich eastern state, and despite her sex, the Young decision has less to do with gender driven politics and is more pragmatic in outlook. There is the age factor, McKenna is only 46, compared to Young's 64 (shades of Eisenhower and Nixon). The campaign concludes with Oregon giving Young the election three weeks after election day (two days before thanksgiving). Young's style is less confrontational and he brings in Democrats to his administration, terrorism raises its ugly head and two cabinet members of national security status were victims unprecedented outrages, this culminated with Young's own assassination little more than two days after his re-election, putting Katherine McKenna into the Presidency.
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leatherface
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2010, 04:31:05 pm »

The presidency of Michael McKenna spans 2009-2017, he is Republican and he is succeeeded by Floyd Brewster, a Democrat who serves 2017-21, and loses his bid for re-election to Timothy Young, another Republican who serves 2021-24 and is replaced by Katherine McKenna (2024- ), notice the tecumseh curse is very much a factor in my storyline, many will ask how come Ronald Reagan was not affected, I would disagree on the basis Alzheimer got him in the end and studies have provided that invasive surgery can precipitate this condition and the grim reaper tried twice to claim Reagan in 1981, with assassination attempt and again due to the colon cancer scare in 1985. My timeline have the Democrats controlling the White House (1989-93) and again between 2001 and 2009. The Democrats are not to good at controlling the White House for more than one term.
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Cath
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2010, 05:01:19 pm »

Canyou give the full list of Presidents from 1989-on?
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leatherface
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2010, 05:20:52 pm »

The Presidents following Ronald Reagan included
Kenneth Frazier (Democrat) Delaware 1989-93
Vernon Payne (Republican) Ohio 1993-2001
William Cahill (Democrat) Illinois 2001-2005
Edward Daniels (Democrat) North Carolina 2005-2009
Michael McKenna (Republican) Colorado 2009-17
Floyd Brewster (Democrat) Kentucky 2017-21
Timothy Young (Republican) Montana 2021-24
Katherine McKenna (Republican) Pennsylvania 2024-
If the home states of William Cahill or Edward Daniels change, its because I haven't completely decided. By the way Michael McKenna is the central figure in a factional political thriller story called 'Against All Enemies' As I said in one of my earlier posts, he is related to the Colorado Guggenheim's through his mother Barbara, who is serving in the U.S. Senate from Colorado at the time of her son's election to the presidency (shades of the Manchurian Candidate with Meryl Streep and Denzil Washington)
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2010, 12:16:07 pm »

Pan Am not TWA was the Lockerbie airline.  If he's blinded by his emotions over his father's murder, what happens to Anglo-American relations when they let the convicted bomber go?  After there are reports that BP lobbied for the bomber's release, and after the Chamber of Commerce lobbies for BP's liability in the oil spill to be limited, does that cause a grudge with the CoC leading him to decry their role in midterms as the Democrats now are?

(Speaking of the 80s, I wouldn't over-credit Reagan for "Trust but Verify."  It wasn't as if what he said was an expression he coined or any policy change.)
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leatherface
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2010, 05:37:58 pm »

Michael McKenna, has problems with the Brits over a number of issues, including the issue of the libyan's, but in his eyes the brits are key allies in his efforts to isolate the Iranian's and he is not as Obama is an ideological liberal leftist, remember this is a Rocky Mountain Conservative Republican we are talking about, where as Obama comes from Illinois, the two men march to two different drum beats and he, McKenna like all politicians takes his cue from pollsters and harbors no illusions about how the world works, remember McKenna has not been coccooned from how the world operates and has done some growing up ever since his dad died, his being blinded by his hatred for terrorism does not prevent him from operating from the old LBJ adage, "Its best to have folks pissing out of the tent, rather than having 'em pissing in" or words to that effect, so he will use hyperbole and colorful rhetoric to win the argument and if that fails, he has a few good intellectual arguments up his sleeve on which to fall back on. Remener this is a guy who wins 49 states in a landslide, so he can geld the lilly when neccessary.
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Cath
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2010, 07:07:09 pm »

So you didn't jsut make this up? This is based on a book?

By the way, about the Manchurian Candidate, did you see the original from 1963? It was better than the one from 2004, and a lot more "epic". Instead of involving large companies and Desert Storm, it had the Korean War, the Cold War, and the Commies.
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leatherface
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2010, 03:10:54 am »

I did see it, by the by, in McKenna's universe the chamber of commerce is a bit more circumspect and therefore there is little problem regarding the issues illustrated over BP, maybe the BP situation is not seen as much as an issue to a Colorado Republican as would for a Illinois Democrat.
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leatherface
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2010, 03:39:06 pm »

After Katherine McKenna, assumes the Presidency in November of 2024, she has to find Secretaries of State and Defense, as well as a Vice President. The previous occupants of these two cabinet positions died, two days after the 2024 Presidential election in front of the Eisenhower Old Executive Office Building after the press conference hosted by President Young, Terrorists struck and cut down them down in a hail of gunfire and grenade explosions, the president escaped due to quick response of his secret service detail. However under the false assumption that there were no further or immediate threats, the secret service recommended for the sake of security, that the President depart for Camp David, the president boarded Marine One, which exploded upon impact from a SAM fired from the perimeter of the White House. The National Security Adviser along with the President and aircrew were the only victims, as the helicopter had been on the ground waiting for the First Lady, and as the presidential aircraft was not airborne at the time of the explosion, no counter measures could be implemented.
The Vice President, her husband and children were preparing to leave there Founder's Ridge residence for a vacation of there own. The Vice Presidential residence at the Naval Observatory was used for entertainment purposes as the usual round of political fund-raisers. Before departing the presidency, Michael McKenna had leased the Founder's ridge property with an option to purchase at a later date. Once the McKenna's moved back to the White House for there second tour, the new first gentlemen allowed the lease agreement to lapse. The property in New Hope, Pennsylvania became a retreat in the same way that the Gettysburg farm had been for the Eisenhower's. There was the ranch in Colorado and the old Guggenheim estate in Rye, New Hampshire which were used as vacation White House's.
The new president had to tackle with the aftermath of her predecessor's assassination, the terrorist group were identified and the ring-leader was a brother of the leader of the terrorist involved in the infamous Oil Rig hostage crisis/ nuclear detonation off the coast of Texas, near Galveston in 2014. The Young assassination lent credence to the belief that terrorism was an ever present danger and in subsequent months as McKenna assembled a new team and consolidated her own power base within the Republican party, former President McKenna's influence and visibility became less evident, rather than more. The only nod the new president gave towards her husband's political counsel was to invite Charles Stevens to join her cabinet, as Secretary of State. Stevens had been Secretary of the Treasury during the administration of Michael McKenna. His father was a close friend to McKenna's own father and they had both founded Stevens McKenna, one of the largest brokerage and investment houses on Wall Street. Stevens' father had died of a massive heart attack and thus young Charles Stevens, an orphan became a member of the McKenna family and it was he rather than Michael McKenna who was blessed with the financial acumen and hunger and it was he, along with Marcus Rayner who increased the wealth and influence of Stevens McKenna ten fold and when Rayner became DCI (Director of Central Intelligence) at the beginning of McKenna's presidency, Stevens became CEO and Chairman and there he remained until early 2012, when at 41, he replaced Alan Parrish at Treasury. More about the Stevens dynamic in my later posts
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leatherface
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2010, 04:22:15 pm »

Anybody want to make the 2012 contest between Michael McKenna and an apponent (you pick 'em) produce a map, and I will produce one, come on anyone, maybe someone can produce a 2016 map between McKenna's Vice President (Ray Lewis) and Floyd Brewster and what about the 2020 contest between Timothy Young and Floyd Brewster. Also I have overlooked the 2008 contest, in my earlier post I alluded to the fact that Michael McKenna wins in a landslide, show me the victory in a map, I have a 40 to 45 State sweep. I produced a map, county by county as well (figured out how to that as well) and the blue-red divide. Remember in the political universe I operate from, the Democrats are in control of the White House throughout 2008, when the economic meltdown occurs and McKenna responds in much the same manner that Obama responded to the crisis, he see's his victory as a mandate for strong action
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Cath
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2010, 01:49:23 pm »

How much of this did you make up, and how much is from that book you mentioned?
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leatherface
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2010, 03:57:40 pm »

firstly regarding the book, all of this comes from the book which is my creation, I try to use as much of what is occurring in the world, like the economic implosion of two years ago, but there some changes I have incorporated, the Bill and Hillary Clinton dynamic is superimposed into the fictional world of Michael and Katherine McKenna, but with a twist she's the only living child of a former two-term president, who herself becomes President (George H.W. Bush & George W. Bush anyone?), she becomes Vice President due in part to her own pedigree and the electorally rich Pennsylvania (her adopted political base) and Ohio (birth-place) and yes also the brand name (McKenna) which is very potent even if her husband is no longer President. But the terrorism factor is a dominant throughout the story and affects the political aspirations of many of the characters who populate the story, the story is my original idea and creation and I think you'll have to wait until the book comes to a book store near you. My primary angle is to look at the politics and election outcomes of the period between 2008 and 2024, perhaps beyond, maps and scenarios are welcome
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leatherface
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2010, 05:28:05 pm »

By the by, if you are wondering about Charles Stevens, he serves as Secretary of State from 2025 until 2031 and departs the state department to re-enter electoral politics and by 2036 emerges as the prohibitive favorite for the, yep you guessed it, the Republicans. Now should he win or lose?, you decide
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leatherface
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2010, 05:42:05 pm »

If my count is incorrect, but I count 20 posts I have submitted, but Still I can't copy and paste and any maps, what's the deal here, is the real number 30? because I can do 30, 40? cause I can do 40, the bottom line I have counted 20 posts and still no luck on the maps
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Cath
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2010, 08:03:39 pm »

firstly regarding the book, all of this comes from the book which is my creation, I try to use as much of what is occurring in the world, like the economic implosion of two years ago, but there some changes I have incorporated, the Bill and Hillary Clinton dynamic is superimposed into the fictional world of Michael and Katherine McKenna, but with a twist she's the only living child of a former two-term president, who herself becomes President (George H.W. Bush & George W. Bush anyone?), she becomes Vice President due in part to her own pedigree and the electorally rich Pennsylvania (her adopted political base) and Ohio (birth-place) and yes also the brand name (McKenna) which is very potent even if her husband is no longer President. But the terrorism factor is a dominant throughout the story and affects the political aspirations of many of the characters who populate the story, the story is my original idea and creation and I think you'll have to wait until the book comes to a book store near you. My primary angle is to look at the politics and election outcomes of the period between 2008 and 2024, perhaps beyond, maps and scenarios are welcome

Is this book published, in your head, or on your home computer?
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leatherface
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2010, 03:06:07 am »

Not published yet, but it's in a safe place on my computer hard drive and will be going on e-books, when all is wrapped up like a neat little package, so if that was a smart-ass question, how's my answer for smart?
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Cath
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2010, 08:56:33 am »

Not published yet, but it's in a safe place on my computer hard drive and will be going on e-books, when all is wrapped up like a neat little package, so if that was a smart-ass question, how's my answer for smart?

Well, it wasn't a smartass question, first off. I was just asking. Second, congratulations.
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