WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47% (user search)

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  WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47% (search mode)
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Author Topic: WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47%  (Read 788 times)
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« on: October 14, 2010, 02:32:50 PM »
« edited: October 14, 2010, 02:40:03 PM by cinyc »


This race seems wildly unstable though.

I think it's the polls rather than the race itself.  Survey USA has had some weird numbers in Kentucky too.  But before they only showed her at 2% lead (a 1% gain for her), which is a good sign.

Survey USA only includes people who are 80% sure they will vote, which may leave out a lot of  Democrats who actually will vote, but aren't that enthusiastic about the race.

That's not what SUSA does.  At least in Delaware, they asked on a scale from 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote, and include the 8s, 9s and 10s.  That's not equivalent to only including people who are 80% sure they will vote, as the scale is subjective.  In Delaware, most people characterized themselves in the 1, 8-10 or 5 categories.  The 1s almost certainly won't vote.  Only the 1s (10%) and 10s (72%) were even in double digits.  9s were 9%, 8s 3% and 5s 4% of the total.  No other category had more than 1%.

SUSA's methodology is fairly standard in the industry. Studies have shown that those who answer 1-7 usually don't vote.   I believe this is one of the questions Gallup asks to determine likelihood of vote, but the Vorlon could probably tell us more.
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