WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47% (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 20, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 Senatorial Election Polls
  WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47% (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47%  (Read 788 times)
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,573


« on: October 14, 2010, 02:32:50 PM »
« edited: October 14, 2010, 02:40:03 PM by cinyc »

Awesome.

This race seems wildly unstable though.

I think it's the polls rather than the race itself.  Survey USA has had some weird numbers in Kentucky too.  But before they only showed her at 2% lead (a 1% gain for her), which is a good sign.

Survey USA only includes people who are 80% sure they will vote, which may leave out a lot of  Democrats who actually will vote, but aren't that enthusiastic about the race.

That's not what SUSA does.  At least in Delaware, they asked on a scale from 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote, and include the 8s, 9s and 10s.  That's not equivalent to only including people who are 80% sure they will vote, as the scale is subjective.  In Delaware, most people characterized themselves in the 1, 8-10 or 5 categories.  The 1s almost certainly won't vote.  Only the 1s (10%) and 10s (72%) were even in double digits.  9s were 9%, 8s 3% and 5s 4% of the total.  No other category had more than 1%.

SUSA's methodology is fairly standard in the industry. Studies have shown that those who answer 1-7 usually don't vote.   I believe this is one of the questions Gallup asks to determine likelihood of vote, but the Vorlon could probably tell us more.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.016 seconds with 15 queries.