WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47%
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  WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47%
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Author Topic: WA: SurveyUSA has Murray @ 50% now, Rossi has 47%  (Read 783 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 14, 2010, 01:51:15 PM »

A new KING 5 poll finds Democratic Senator Patty Murray in a dead heat with Republican Dino Rossi.  In a poll of likely voters statewide, 50% tell SurveyUSA they would vote for Murray; 47% say they would vote for Rossi.

After the state's August primary, our tracking poll found Rossi in the lead, but Democratic candidates across the board have enjoyed a bounce in the past few weeks.  This newest poll showing Rossi and Murray within the poll's margin of error is effectively the same as our last poll three weeks ago.  The poll's margin of error is +/- 4.1%.

With the race so close, it'll be interesting to see what strategy the candidates employ at tonight's first debate in Spokane.  Will they play it safe and stick to talking points, or will one of them try to make some news?

Some interesting findings from the poll:
--When asked which candidate would make better decisions about the economy, voters were evenly split between the two candidates.
--When asked who would be more influenced by lobbyists--an attack Murray has made on Rossi in her TV ads--45% said Rossi as opposed to 39% Murray.
--49% want to see health care reform repealed compared to 40% who support it remaining law.

There are many polls being taken in these final days, and some have had dramatically different results.  Here's a short analysis on the landscape from our pollster, SurveyUSA:

"A Humbling Day for Pollsters in Washington State: In the election for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democrat Patti Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi remain locked in a tight fight, according to SurveyUSA's newest poll, conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Murray 50%, Rossi 47% at this hour, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from a SurveyUSA KING-TV poll 3 weeks ago.

http://www.king5.com/community/blogs/politiking/New-KING-5-poll-finds-Senate-race-a-dead-heat-104965414.html
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2010, 01:57:39 PM »

Awesome.

This race seems wildly unstable though.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2010, 02:17:27 PM »

Awesome.

This race seems wildly unstable though.

I think it's the polls rather than the race itself.  Survey USA has had some weird numbers in Kentucky too.  But before they only showed her at 2% lead (a 1% gain for her), which is a good sign.

Survey USA only includes people who are 80% sure they will vote, which may leave out a lot of  Democrats who actually will vote, but aren't that enthusiastic about the race.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2010, 02:32:50 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2010, 02:40:03 PM by cinyc »

Awesome.

This race seems wildly unstable though.

I think it's the polls rather than the race itself.  Survey USA has had some weird numbers in Kentucky too.  But before they only showed her at 2% lead (a 1% gain for her), which is a good sign.

Survey USA only includes people who are 80% sure they will vote, which may leave out a lot of  Democrats who actually will vote, but aren't that enthusiastic about the race.

That's not what SUSA does.  At least in Delaware, they asked on a scale from 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote, and include the 8s, 9s and 10s.  That's not equivalent to only including people who are 80% sure they will vote, as the scale is subjective.  In Delaware, most people characterized themselves in the 1, 8-10 or 5 categories.  The 1s almost certainly won't vote.  Only the 1s (10%) and 10s (72%) were even in double digits.  9s were 9%, 8s 3% and 5s 4% of the total.  No other category had more than 1%.

SUSA's methodology is fairly standard in the industry. Studies have shown that those who answer 1-7 usually don't vote.   I believe this is one of the questions Gallup asks to determine likelihood of vote, but the Vorlon could probably tell us more.
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KS21
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2010, 03:02:51 PM »

I'm glad to see Dino heading for defeat again.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2010, 03:20:36 PM »


The question is, if he is defeated a third time, would he still be called the most electable Republican in Washington?
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2010, 03:22:45 PM »

     I see that nobody has commented on the fact that this poll shows essentially no movement from Survey USA's last poll of the race.
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KS21
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2010, 03:24:39 PM »


The question is, if he is defeated a third time, would he still be called the most electable Republican in Washington?

I'm not sure why he would be called that in the first place, when there is Sam Reed and Rob McKenna, both of which are popular.
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redcommander
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2010, 08:00:44 PM »


The question is, if he is defeated a third time, would he still be called the most electable Republican in Washington?

I'm not sure why he would be called that in the first place, when there is Sam Reed and Rob McKenna, both of which are popular.

This. Rossi is definitely not the most electable Washington Republican. Reed or McKenna could have made Murray sweat a little more. McMorris Rodgers and Reichert even would probably be doing the same as Rossi is in the polls right now.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2010, 09:41:02 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2010, 09:44:32 PM by SvenssonRS »

Where this race is concerned, I'm only going to trust the results.

Unless the Dems, predictably, steal it from Rossi again. Wink
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2010, 09:42:47 PM »

Can you people start putting in an emoticon or something so I can tell when you're joking about vote fraud in Washington? It's confusing the hell out of me.
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