AK: Public Policy Polling: It's Miller by 2 points

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Alaska Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2010-10-11

Summary: D: 26%, R: 35%, I: 33%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

This is what PPP asked first:

In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, or someone else? If Scott McAdams, press 1. If Joe Miller, press 2. If someone else, press 3. If you're undecided, press 4.

26% McAdams
35% Miller
35% Someone Else
  4% Undecided

(For those who said "someone else" in the first question:) Are you planning to vote for nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in Lisa Murkowski or are you planning to write in someone else? If Tim Carter, press 1. If Ted Gianoutsos, press 2. If Fredrick Haase, press 3. If you're going to write in Lisa Murkowski, press 4. If you're going to write in someone else, press 5.

95% Write in Murkowski
  2% Haase
  1% Gianoutsos
  2% Write in Someone Else

...

This resulted in the topline results mentioned above ...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sounds like a fair enough way to measure the race.

[Lief 🐋]

Yeah, that's about the perfect way to do it, IMO.

[Whacker77]

PPP deserves a lot credit for asking the question in that manner.  While I remain dubious Murkowski will receive that amount of support, I can't blame it on an unfair question.

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen today will say...

[Sam Spade]

...this race is...

[MorningInAmerica]

Is Rasmussen releasing a poll of this race today?

If they do, I bet it'll have Miller at 38, Murky at 33, and McAdams at 23. However, I don't see Murkowski actually getting 30% of Alaskans to write her name on the ballot

[Sam Spade]

Right now, I'm just in tease mode.  Of course, the chances of all this Alaska polling being dead wrong is pretty high, just fyi.

[Rowan]

I'll take a guess that it will say something like:

Miller: 35%
Murkowski: 34%
McAdams: 27%

[Tender Branson]

I'll take a guess that it will say something like:

Miller: 35%
Murkowski: 34%
McAdams: 27%

Well, there´s another RCP reader ...

[jimrtex]

This is what PPP should have asked:

In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, or someone else? If Scott McAdams, press 1. If Joe Miller, press 2. If someone else, press 3. If you're undecided, press 4.

26% McAdams
35% Miller
35% Someone Else
  4% Undecided

(For those who said "someone else" in the first question:) Are you planning to vote for nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in some candidate?  If Tim Carter, press 1. If Ted Gianoutsos, press 2. If Fredrick Haase, press 3. If you're going to write in the name of a candidate, press 4, enter their name using your telephone keypad, followed by the pound sign.

Murkowski = 687569754

[Skill and Chance]

This is what PPP should have asked:

In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, or someone else? If Scott McAdams, press 1. If Joe Miller, press 2. If someone else, press 3. If you're undecided, press 4.

26% McAdams
35% Miller
35% Someone Else
  4% Undecided

(For those who said "someone else" in the first question:) Are you planning to vote for nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in some candidate?  If Tim Carter, press 1. If Ted Gianoutsos, press 2. If Fredrick Haase, press 3. If you're going to write in the name of a candidate, press 4, enter their name using your telephone keypad, followed by the pound sign.

Murkowski = 687569754

That requires a lot more effort than writing in a name on a ballot.  A lot of people are unfamiliar with the locations of letters on their phones, especially elderly people with poor vision. 

Edit: If they had reading glasses, they would bring them to the voting booth, but they probably wouldn't use them to answer the phone.

[Joe Republic]

Leaving a recorded message with the name of the 'other candidate' would be a much easier method than punching a bunch of numbers.