CA: Public Policy Polling: Sen. Boxer now 8 points ahead

[Sbane]

I don't understand all this complaining about the internals. The latest Survey Usa poll shows very similar partisan breakdown at D 47 R 31 and Independents at 22. And that poll has Fiorina up by 2. Republicans need to realize that Boxer will probably win in November but it will be close. A 8 point margin would be about the upper end of the range for Boxer.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I don't understand all this complaining about the internals. The latest Survey Usa poll shows very similar partisan breakdown at D 47 R 31 and Independents at 22. And that poll has Fiorina up by 2. Republicans need to realize that Boxer will probably win in November but it will be close. A 8 point margin would be about the upper end of the range for Boxer.

     The problem is that the internals are nonsensical. For some reason, I find it pretty unlikely that the electorate now will be even more Democratic-leaning than the 2008 electorate.

[Sbane]

I don't understand all this complaining about the internals. The latest Survey Usa poll shows very similar partisan breakdown at D 47 R 31 and Independents at 22. And that poll has Fiorina up by 2. Republicans need to realize that Boxer will probably win in November but it will be close. A 8 point margin would be about the upper end of the range for Boxer.

     The problem is that the internals are nonsensical. For some reason, I find it pretty unlikely that the electorate now will be even more Democratic-leaning than the 2008 electorate.

The biggest difference between the partisan breakdowns of this poll (as well as the SUSA poll) and the exit poll is the number of independents. The number of independents drops from 28% of the electorate to 18% in the PPP poll. I wonder if the difference is due to wording of the question. Perhaps on the exit poll they specifically ask you which party you belong to while PPP and SUSA might ask which party you are closer to, with an option for true independents. I don't know if this is the case but something like this has to be occurring since the drop in independents really doesn't make any sense. You can argue that the partisan breakdown should really be D 45 R 35, but that doesn't change the final numbers much.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I don't understand all this complaining about the internals. The latest Survey Usa poll shows very similar partisan breakdown at D 47 R 31 and Independents at 22. And that poll has Fiorina up by 2. Republicans need to realize that Boxer will probably win in November but it will be close. A 8 point margin would be about the upper end of the range for Boxer.

     The problem is that the internals are nonsensical. For some reason, I find it pretty unlikely that the electorate now will be even more Democratic-leaning than the 2008 electorate.

The biggest difference between the partisan breakdowns of this poll (as well as the SUSA poll) and the exit poll is the number of independents. The number of independents drops from 28% of the electorate to 18% in the PPP poll. I wonder if the difference is due to wording of the question. Perhaps on the exit poll they specifically ask you which party you belong to while PPP and SUSA might ask which party you are closer to, with an option for true independents. I don't know if this is the case but something like this has to be occurring since the drop in independents really doesn't make any sense. You can argue that the partisan breakdown should really be D 45 R 35, but that doesn't change the final numbers much.

     According to the poll release, the question was: "If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3". That sort of shoots down that hypothesis.

[Sbane]

I don't understand all this complaining about the internals. The latest Survey Usa poll shows very similar partisan breakdown at D 47 R 31 and Independents at 22. And that poll has Fiorina up by 2. Republicans need to realize that Boxer will probably win in November but it will be close. A 8 point margin would be about the upper end of the range for Boxer.

     The problem is that the internals are nonsensical. For some reason, I find it pretty unlikely that the electorate now will be even more Democratic-leaning than the 2008 electorate.

The biggest difference between the partisan breakdowns of this poll (as well as the SUSA poll) and the exit poll is the number of independents. The number of independents drops from 28% of the electorate to 18% in the PPP poll. I wonder if the difference is due to wording of the question. Perhaps on the exit poll they specifically ask you which party you belong to while PPP and SUSA might ask which party you are closer to, with an option for true independents. I don't know if this is the case but something like this has to be occurring since the drop in independents really doesn't make any sense. You can argue that the partisan breakdown should really be D 45 R 35, but that doesn't change the final numbers much.

     According to the poll release, the question was: "If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3". That sort of shoots down that hypothesis.

Yeah I guess so. Still, it's odd how few independents there are in the PPP poll.